‘My Sources Say’ You Should Be Aware of These Social Media Warning Signs Tonight
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TroibNews 
Are you curious about what this election cycle holds, perhaps a bit ahead of time? With all the speculation, punditry, and the flood of advertisements, wouldn’t it be great to have some foresight?
That's the enticing offer from a group of passionate political enthusiasts, primarily on X, who are dedicating their day and evening to asserting that they can forecast outcomes based on minuscule pieces of information.
As a political reporter, I can attest that the desire for early insights is universal. Social media often serves as a valuable platform for spotting trends before they make their way to mainstream news. However, there’s also an overwhelming stream of misleading information generated mostly by political hobbyists and some trolls eager to provoke.
The relentless pursuit to be the first to break news can breed misinformation. Here are several warning signs to be cautious of while navigating social media during this time.
**‘BREAKING: It’s already over’**
If you’ve been on Twitter during an election, this warning is familiar: someone goes viral predicting the outcome of a race based on just a small percentage of votes. These individuals can sometimes sound completely unhinged—like misinterpreting early results in a Republican-leaning rural area of New York and claiming a statewide trend, all while overlooking New York City’s overwhelming Democratic majority. In other instances, a data-oriented hobbyist might overreact to early results from key counties and hastily declare a swing state’s fate.
Regardless of their accuracy, this practice creates unnecessary panic among the public.
A similar issue arises with exit polling, which is notorious for being unreliable. As these polls leak out in the afternoon prior to polls closing, some eager politicos tend to draw grand conclusions from them, asserting that these indicate the certainty of an election outcome.
**‘The vibes are strong’**
Both political sides will throw around this phrase. Many understand to disregard “vibes-based” assessments, yet they still proliferate online. This vague notion can encompass everything from the number of yard signs in a neighborhood to reported interactions with swing voters—whether real or imaginary—suggesting an impending victory for one candidate.
In-person echo chambers and social media algorithms contribute to an environment where individuals only see information that conforms to their existing beliefs about the race. Therefore, it's wise to dismiss yard sign discussions entirely.
**‘According to my sources’**
You might hear claims detailing eyewitness accounts of voter fraud or dramatic tales involving candidates throwing food in frustration.
A good rule of thumb: such assertions are nearly always false. If a social media post begins with phrases like “I’m hearing” or “The campaign is feeling good about,” it’s advisable to close that tab—unless it comes from a reputable journalist closely tied to a campaign. This tendency highlights how individuals speculate based on supposed inside knowledge, while in reality, they are merely guessing. When one candidate wins, there will undoubtedly be a person claiming they had “inside info” all along, despite having fabricated their sources.
**‘We’ve already won’**
Consider these two statements posted just a week apart: On October 26, conservative writer Victor Joecks declared on X that “Republicans could win the Nevada Senate seat and every Congressional race. That's how catastrophic NV’s early voting numbers are for Democrats. Is there time for Ds to close the gap? Sure. But not much.” Just a week later, liberal commentator Swann Marcus asserted, “So I'm like 99% sure Harris is winning Nevada and it isn’t even going to be close,” sharing a screenshot of early voting figures from Clark County.
In that interval, Democrats did manage to narrow the early voting deficit, but the unwavering confidence each side expressed about their supposed victories was evidently misplaced. This phenomenon recurs in every competitive state, emerging once again as election day votes begin to trickle in.
**‘We learned this last time’**
At the start of Election Night in 2020, Democratic supporters experienced panic when Florida, seen as a potential swing state, showed red-tainted trends, which shocked them given earlier polling. Betting markets began spiking for Trump, suggesting a substantial polling error. Indeed, Florida’s polling miss was significant, yet that didn’t indicate a downturn for Biden in other states. The shifting dynamics in Florida were driven mostly by Latino voters moving towards Trump, a trend not replicated elsewhere, including in Georgia, where Biden registered a major upset. However, due to the swift vote reporting in various states, reactions can be overly hasty, influenced by whatever numbers surface first.
**‘STOP THE COUNT’**
Lastly, we encounter one of the most hazardous forms of digital noise—misleading or false information emanating from campaigns or candidates themselves. Particularly insidious is the unfounded claim of vote rigging or cheating, which can lead to severe ramifications, as seen with Trump’s rhetoric inciting the January 6 insurrection. His persistent assertions of a "stolen" 2020 election have convinced a significant portion of Republicans that election fraud will recur in 2024.
Campaigns can also mislead by cherry-picking data that fits their narrative regarding the race. Recent election cycles have imparted an important lesson: it’s unwise to declare premature victories. Yet, the individuals who fail to grasp this lesson remain active on X, peddling false or misleading narratives and attempting to draw others down the same path.
Frederick R Cook for TROIB News
That's the enticing offer from a group of passionate political enthusiasts, primarily on X, who are dedicating their day and evening to asserting that they can forecast outcomes based on minuscule pieces of information.
As a political reporter, I can attest that the desire for early insights is universal. Social media often serves as a valuable platform for spotting trends before they make their way to mainstream news. However, there’s also an overwhelming stream of misleading information generated mostly by political hobbyists and some trolls eager to provoke.
The relentless pursuit to be the first to break news can breed misinformation. Here are several warning signs to be cautious of while navigating social media during this time.
**‘BREAKING: It’s already over’**
If you’ve been on Twitter during an election, this warning is familiar: someone goes viral predicting the outcome of a race based on just a small percentage of votes. These individuals can sometimes sound completely unhinged—like misinterpreting early results in a Republican-leaning rural area of New York and claiming a statewide trend, all while overlooking New York City’s overwhelming Democratic majority. In other instances, a data-oriented hobbyist might overreact to early results from key counties and hastily declare a swing state’s fate.
Regardless of their accuracy, this practice creates unnecessary panic among the public.
A similar issue arises with exit polling, which is notorious for being unreliable. As these polls leak out in the afternoon prior to polls closing, some eager politicos tend to draw grand conclusions from them, asserting that these indicate the certainty of an election outcome.
**‘The vibes are strong’**
Both political sides will throw around this phrase. Many understand to disregard “vibes-based” assessments, yet they still proliferate online. This vague notion can encompass everything from the number of yard signs in a neighborhood to reported interactions with swing voters—whether real or imaginary—suggesting an impending victory for one candidate.
In-person echo chambers and social media algorithms contribute to an environment where individuals only see information that conforms to their existing beliefs about the race. Therefore, it's wise to dismiss yard sign discussions entirely.
**‘According to my sources’**
You might hear claims detailing eyewitness accounts of voter fraud or dramatic tales involving candidates throwing food in frustration.
A good rule of thumb: such assertions are nearly always false. If a social media post begins with phrases like “I’m hearing” or “The campaign is feeling good about,” it’s advisable to close that tab—unless it comes from a reputable journalist closely tied to a campaign. This tendency highlights how individuals speculate based on supposed inside knowledge, while in reality, they are merely guessing. When one candidate wins, there will undoubtedly be a person claiming they had “inside info” all along, despite having fabricated their sources.
**‘We’ve already won’**
Consider these two statements posted just a week apart: On October 26, conservative writer Victor Joecks declared on X that “Republicans could win the Nevada Senate seat and every Congressional race. That's how catastrophic NV’s early voting numbers are for Democrats. Is there time for Ds to close the gap? Sure. But not much.” Just a week later, liberal commentator Swann Marcus asserted, “So I'm like 99% sure Harris is winning Nevada and it isn’t even going to be close,” sharing a screenshot of early voting figures from Clark County.
In that interval, Democrats did manage to narrow the early voting deficit, but the unwavering confidence each side expressed about their supposed victories was evidently misplaced. This phenomenon recurs in every competitive state, emerging once again as election day votes begin to trickle in.
**‘We learned this last time’**
At the start of Election Night in 2020, Democratic supporters experienced panic when Florida, seen as a potential swing state, showed red-tainted trends, which shocked them given earlier polling. Betting markets began spiking for Trump, suggesting a substantial polling error. Indeed, Florida’s polling miss was significant, yet that didn’t indicate a downturn for Biden in other states. The shifting dynamics in Florida were driven mostly by Latino voters moving towards Trump, a trend not replicated elsewhere, including in Georgia, where Biden registered a major upset. However, due to the swift vote reporting in various states, reactions can be overly hasty, influenced by whatever numbers surface first.
**‘STOP THE COUNT’**
Lastly, we encounter one of the most hazardous forms of digital noise—misleading or false information emanating from campaigns or candidates themselves. Particularly insidious is the unfounded claim of vote rigging or cheating, which can lead to severe ramifications, as seen with Trump’s rhetoric inciting the January 6 insurrection. His persistent assertions of a "stolen" 2020 election have convinced a significant portion of Republicans that election fraud will recur in 2024.
Campaigns can also mislead by cherry-picking data that fits their narrative regarding the race. Recent election cycles have imparted an important lesson: it’s unwise to declare premature victories. Yet, the individuals who fail to grasp this lesson remain active on X, peddling false or misleading narratives and attempting to draw others down the same path.
Frederick R Cook for TROIB News
