Insights from Senior Officials on China's Key Economic Work Conference
Following an important conference among Chinese leaders to outline priorities for the upcoming year’s economic agenda, high-ranking officials expressed optimism about China achieving significant economic and social development objectives this year, while also fostering a continuous economic recovery in 2025.
The annual Central Economic Work Conference took place in Beijing on Wednesday and Thursday.
Zhao Chenxin, the deputy chief of the National Development and Reform Commission, described 2024 as an extraordinary year with promising advancements during a forum on Saturday.
He pointed out that the economy has experienced positive changes since September, highlighting improvements in expectations and the performance of key economic indicators at the forum organized by the China Center for International Economic Exchanges.
Han Wenxiu, the executive deputy director of the Office of the Central Committee for Financial and Economic Affairs, projected that the Chinese economy would grow by approximately 5 percent this year, contributing nearly 30 percent to global economic growth.
Han noted that employment and prices have remained stable, international payments are essentially balanced, and foreign exchange reserves continue to stay above $3.2 trillion.
However, despite these encouraging signs, the economy still encounters challenges. Policymakers proposed various measures to address these issues during the conference.
Zhao highlighted a more complex and challenging external environment, insufficient domestic demand, operational struggles for some enterprises, and pressures on employment and income growth.
“Efforts should be made next year to implement more proactive and impactful macro policies, expand domestic demand, promote the integrated development of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation, stabilize the real estate and stock markets, prevent and resolve risks in key areas, and external shocks, stabilize expectations, and stimulate vitality,” he stated.
The conference revealed that China plans to adopt a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy for 2025.
Han mentioned a notable shift in policy language this time, indicating stronger counter-cyclical adjustments to manage instability and uncertainty, along with more robust policy support to achieve annual targets.
To maintain a vigorous and effective fiscal policy, China will establish a higher deficit-to-GDP ratio, increase the intensity of fiscal spending, enhance the issuance of ultra-long special treasury bonds and local government special bonds, and optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure, according to Wang Yiming, vice chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges.
Wang Xin, the head of the Research Bureau of the People's Bank of China, mentioned that the country would lower the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates at the appropriate time, while improving credit flows to strategic areas, key sectors, and weak links in the economy.
Currently, China's average reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions is at 6.6 percent, indicating room for further reductions, Wang noted, emphasizing that these monetary measures aim to support stable economic growth, stable employment, and reasonable price rebounds.
The conference outlined key tasks for 2025 in nine areas, including a comprehensive expansion of domestic demand and effectively mitigating risks in critical sectors.
Vice Commerce Minister Sheng Qiuping stated that the nation will launch special campaigns to boost consumption and implement more practical measures to unlock consumption potential, which include promoting consumer goods trade-ins and developing new consumption models.
Sheng reported that the national trade-in program has already increased consumption by over 1 trillion yuan and indicated that additional measures would promote ice and snow consumption, the debut economy, as well as sales of new energy vehicles and smart home appliances.
To "reverse the downturn of and stabilize the real estate market," the conference emphasized the need for action. Dong Jianguo, vice minister of housing and urban-rural development, announced that as of November, 3.24 million new homes had been delivered under a nationwide government initiative aimed at helping developers fulfill housing deliveries, significantly improving market sentiment.
Next year, efforts will focus on advancing the renovation of shanty towns and dilapidated homes, fully realizing the potential for citizens to purchase their first homes or enhance their housing conditions, while appropriately managing the supply of newly added real estate land, Dong added.
Dong also advocated for a transition in the real estate sector towards speed and quality, emphasizing the construction of safe, comfortable, green, and intelligent homes to meet the demand for high-quality living spaces and to cultivate a new development model for the sector.
Jessica Kline for TROIB News