House GOP presses toward leadership elections despite post-midterm disarray

Kevin McCarthy will take his first step toward the speakership this week. It’s looking increasingly like a leap straight into chaos.

As Republicans begin grappling with the reality of a much smaller majority next year than they’d hoped, the GOP leader’s once-clear ascent to the top House gavel is now under threat from the right — an echo of the circumstances that helped derail his 2015 bid for the spot. And a full picture of his problems could emerge as soon as Tuesday, when McCarthy is slated to be nominated as the GOP conference’s pick for speaker.

That nomination should prove easy for McCarthy to snag, given that it only requires a majority of House Republicans to agree on supporting him. But it comes as some members of the pro-Trump Freedom Caucus weigh a two-step plan that’s designed to topple him.

Conservatives want Tuesday's scheduled leadership elections postponed until control of the House is certain. If McCarthy doesn't agree, they plan to nominate Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) as an internal pick for speaker to demonstrate that the Californian doesn’t have the 218 GOP votes he needs when the full chamber votes on Jan. 3, according to a Republican with knowledge of the plan who spoke candidly on condition of anonymity.

Depending on how that first step plays out, more conservatives would then embrace an alternative pick to put forward as a consensus candidate, added this Republican — who said some signs are pointing to Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) as the Freedom Caucus' consensus choice. CNN first reported the prospect that Biggs would be a symbolic alternative in step one of the plan.

It’s a risky gambit that’s clearly still in flux as the conference churns toward a leadership election that conservatives want to delay, a sentiment aired by Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) on Twitter on Sunday night. And it's not clear how much McCarthy's rival-turned-ally Jordan knows about the right flank's plan, although though outside supporters aren't hiding their views on the matter.

“This is about building to January,” Russ Vought, a Trump-era White House budget director aiding the plan from outside the Capitol, told Trump ally Steve Bannon during a Friday interview.

“And we have an opportunity to have a paradigm-shattering victory [on] the speakership," Vought added, "to either be able to get Jim Jordan in as speaker — I don't care if he's not running right now — or to have a coalitional-style government where every decision goes through HFC.”

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who’s not a Freedom Caucus member, has also publicly touted Jordan as the best speakership candidate despite the Ohioan’s repeated public avowals to support McCarthy. Vought recently joined Gaetz’s podcast to talk up the need for a “wartime speaker.”

The Freedom Caucus is making a public push for institutional concessions from McCarthy, like restoring lawmakers’ ability to depose the speaker, adding more of their members to the conference’s influential Steering Committee, and more. While those demands are genuine, they also give cover to members who expect to oppose McCarthy even if every condition is granted.

Importantly, the conservative group is not fully involved in the nascent anti-McCarthy plan — although chair Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) is involved — and it could fail entirely. McCarthy’s allies are long tired of Freedom Caucus scheming, dating back to the right flank’s role in destroying his dreams of the speakership seven years ago.

"These palace intrigue stories are premature and they are still counting votes. What I can tell you for sure is that Mr. Jordan looks forward to chairing the Judiciary Committee next Congress," Jordan spokesperson Russell Dye said when asked for comment about the anti-McCarthy plan.

A Perry spokesperson did not immediately return a request for comment on the plan, the second phase of which is being more closely held than the first.

McCarthy backers point out that he’s unlikely to go quietly if the Freedom Caucus tries to pull him into crisis again. When he bowed out of speakership contention in 2015, he said he did so “for the betterment of the conference.” This time, supporters will encourage him to push back against any resistance.

That may not come in full force on Tuesday, but McCarthy could face real static as the House majority remains uncertain despite lofty predictions of a "red wave." And things will only get more bitter as Republicans move to elect their next No. 3.

Whips, cracked

There are no current signs of internal trouble for McCarthy’s No. 2, Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.), who would ascend to majority leader in a GOP House. The race for majority whip is another story.

Three powerful contenders are vying for the whip role, the highest-ranked open leadership position in years. Reps. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), Jim Banks (R-Ind.) and Drew Ferguson (R-Ga.) are sprinting to lock up support ahead of Tuesday’s scheduled vote — including commitments if the vote goes to a second ballot, which many Republicans credit as the secret to former Speaker John Boehner’s early rise.

The first step comes Monday, when GOP lawmakers will get to hear from the three candidates and ask questions about their records. As House GOP campaigns chief, Emmer may be pressed about the party’s disappointing performance in the midterms, which ended with far fewer pickups than the dozens of seats previously projected.

Emmer allies insist he can power to victory even as the majority remains uncalled, having won seats two cycles in a row leading the National Republican Congressional Committee. Ferguson, the current chief deputy whip, is pitching members that he’ll have the least steep learning curve in the job, which will likely be useful with tighter margins.

And Banks, the Republican Study Committee chair, has sought to present himself as the most conservative option, broadcasting loudly his close ties to Trump world.

The vote will take place by secret ballot, giving members a measure of protection from outside scrutiny.

A favorite at No. 4

The other contested House Republican leadership battle is that for the conference chair post. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) is widely seen as poised to win a second term in the GOP messaging role, though she’s had to campaign harder than expected for it amid a challenge from Freedom Caucus member Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.).

One of two Black House Republicans, Donalds has said his challenge is less about Stefanik and more about offering an alternative for members who want to go in a different direction from the current slate. He is also pitching himself as someone who can inspire younger and more diverse converts to conservatism.

Stefanik, the top-ranked woman in congressional Republican leadership, is making the case that she has the experience and strong marks for her stewardship of conference messaging after the party tapped her to replace ousted Trump critic Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.).

Jordain Carney contributed to this report.