Harris Ahead of Trump in Crucial States, According to Poll
According to a New York Times survey, Kamala Harris holds a four-point lead over Donald Trump in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Read Full Article at RT.com.
TroibNews 
A recent survey raises concerns for the former president, though the apparent lead for the Democrat may not be as substantial as it appears.
The New York Times released a poll on Saturday indicating that US Vice President Kamala Harris holds a notable advantage over former President Donald Trump in the critical swing states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. However, the sampling data from the poll implies that the actual race could be much tighter.
Conducted by the Siena College Research Institute, this poll surveyed close to 2,000 likely voters and found Harris leading Trump by 50% to 46% across the three states. The survey took place from August 5 to August 9, which coincided with the week Harris announced Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate.
Historically, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan voted Democratic from 1992 until 2016, when Trump unexpectedly secured victories in all three states. In 2020, President Joe Biden managed to reclaim these Rust Belt states but did so with extremely narrow margins. Winning either Pennsylvania and its 19 electoral votes or the combined 25 votes from Michigan and Wisconsin is crucial for both Harris and Trump in the upcoming election.
While the poll indicates that Harris could secure a decisive win in these states, an examination of its methodology raises questions about the strength of her lead. For instance, in Michigan, 45% of respondents reported voting for Biden in 2020, while 39% chose Trump. In reality, Biden's victory margin was under three points, contrasting with the six-point lead suggested by the poll.
Similar discrepancies are evident in Pennsylvania, where the poll indicates Biden won by five points, whereas the actual margin was 1.2, and in Wisconsin, where the poll reflects an eight-point Biden win instead of the actual 0.6 margin.
Taking the oversampling of Democrats into consideration, Harris and Trump appear to be in a statistical dead heat across all three states.
Nonetheless, this poll is one of several indicating that Harris is gaining on Trump. According to an aggregate of surveys compiled by RealClearPolitics, Harris is currently ahead of Trump nationwide by 0.5%. In contrast, Trump had been leading Biden by about three points just before the president suspended his reelection campaign last month.
Despite not releasing any specific policy positions or engaging with journalists since launching her campaign, Harris's favorability ratings have risen to 48%, increasing from 36% in February, based on earlier New York Times/Siena polls. Trump's favorability, in comparison, currently stands at 46%, up from 44% in February.
Anna Muller contributed to this report for TROIB News
The New York Times released a poll on Saturday indicating that US Vice President Kamala Harris holds a notable advantage over former President Donald Trump in the critical swing states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. However, the sampling data from the poll implies that the actual race could be much tighter.
Conducted by the Siena College Research Institute, this poll surveyed close to 2,000 likely voters and found Harris leading Trump by 50% to 46% across the three states. The survey took place from August 5 to August 9, which coincided with the week Harris announced Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate.
Historically, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan voted Democratic from 1992 until 2016, when Trump unexpectedly secured victories in all three states. In 2020, President Joe Biden managed to reclaim these Rust Belt states but did so with extremely narrow margins. Winning either Pennsylvania and its 19 electoral votes or the combined 25 votes from Michigan and Wisconsin is crucial for both Harris and Trump in the upcoming election.
While the poll indicates that Harris could secure a decisive win in these states, an examination of its methodology raises questions about the strength of her lead. For instance, in Michigan, 45% of respondents reported voting for Biden in 2020, while 39% chose Trump. In reality, Biden's victory margin was under three points, contrasting with the six-point lead suggested by the poll.
Similar discrepancies are evident in Pennsylvania, where the poll indicates Biden won by five points, whereas the actual margin was 1.2, and in Wisconsin, where the poll reflects an eight-point Biden win instead of the actual 0.6 margin.
Taking the oversampling of Democrats into consideration, Harris and Trump appear to be in a statistical dead heat across all three states.
Nonetheless, this poll is one of several indicating that Harris is gaining on Trump. According to an aggregate of surveys compiled by RealClearPolitics, Harris is currently ahead of Trump nationwide by 0.5%. In contrast, Trump had been leading Biden by about three points just before the president suspended his reelection campaign last month.
Despite not releasing any specific policy positions or engaging with journalists since launching her campaign, Harris's favorability ratings have risen to 48%, increasing from 36% in February, based on earlier New York Times/Siena polls. Trump's favorability, in comparison, currently stands at 46%, up from 44% in February.
Anna Muller contributed to this report for TROIB News
