Donald Trump’s Shrinking Map: New Hampshire Latest Indicator
While Kamala Harris was in New Hampshire on Wednesday, Donald Trump's campaign appears to be nearly absent from the state.
TroibNews 
NORTH HAMPTON, New Hampshire — Donald Trump has not visited New Hampshire since winning the state’s GOP primary in January, and his campaign hasn't dispatched a high-profile surrogate to the state since the spring.
Despite claims from his campaign that he can win here, some of Trump's staunchest supporters in this blue-leaning swing state are voicing opinions that the campaign should allocate its resources elsewhere.
“This election is going to be won in those seven swing states” and not in New Hampshire, remarked Lou Gargiulo, who co-chairs Trump’s campaign in this state. “That’s where the effort’s got to be put.”
This marks a significant change from earlier when New Hampshire was seen as a viable battleground where Trump's campaign anticipated expanding its electoral reach amid President Joe Biden's struggles. Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley stated days after the June debate that the party had begun to “engage” in New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Virginia. A survey conducted post-debate showed Trump had erased Biden’s polling advantage in the Granite State, leaving Republicans optimistic and Democrats uneasy.
However, New Hampshire now reflects how Trump's campaign is narrowing as he prepares for a race against Kamala Harris. Recent surveys indicate that the vice president has established a lead over Trump, prompting her to strengthen that position with a campaign event at a Seacoast brewery, where she promoted a new plan aimed at providing tax breaks for small businesses. Race trackers have moved the state further leftward, and Republicans in New Hampshire are privately expressing concerns about Trump's campaign’s inadequate investment in a state dominated by Democrats in field offices at a ratio of 17 to 1.
“The Trump campaign does not appear to be matching or contesting” New Hampshire, commented Matthew Bartlett, a Republican strategist from the state and a former Trump administration appointee.
“Organizationally speaking there have been no visits, no surrogates. They have their institutional support and they’re going to go with it,” Bartlett added. “Whereas Democrats, even with a lead, continue to flood the zone week after week with high-profile people.”
Trump's campaign asserts that it is indeed contesting New Hampshire, where he has won GOP primaries three times but lost two consecutive general elections, including a 7 percentage point defeat to Biden in 2020. Karoline Leavitt, a spokesperson from New Hampshire, insisted the campaign is “maintaining an offensive posture” in New Hampshire as well as in the other blue-leaning swing states of Minnesota and Virginia.
“They’re not in our target seven battleground states,” Leavitt stated. But New Hampshire is “certainly a state we believe the president can flip red.”
On Wednesday, Harris aimed to pressure Trump by promoting her latest economic initiative to a crowd of over 3,000 who waited in the heat to attend — while criticizing Trump’s positions on various issues including taxes and abortion access.
“We will move forward because ours is a fight for the future and it is a fight for freedom,” Harris stated. “And I don’t have to tell the folks in New Hampshire, the Live Free or Die state — you know the importance of individual freedoms.”
Trump and his supporters interpreted Harris’ visit as an indication that Democrats are anxious about their prospects in a state that has not supported a Republican presidential candidate since 2000 and is considered “likely” to vote blue in November.
“Comrade Kamala Harris sees there are problems for her campaign in New Hampshire because of the fact that they disrespected it in their primary and never showed up,” Trump posted on his Truth Social platform Tuesday. “I protected New Hampshire’s First-In-The-Nation Primary and ALWAYS will! To my friends in New Hampshire, get out and vote TRUMP.”
He also promised to return to New Hampshire before the election while participating in a local radio show Wednesday morning.
“It’s a very important place in terms of winning this election. It could come down to New Hampshire. I'll be there,” Trump declared.
Despite this commitment, he did not specify a date for his visit. In the meantime, the campaign has not sent any notable surrogates to rally support since North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and Florida Rep. Byron Donalds appeared back in April and May, respectively — even after requests from the state GOP, according to a source who spoke anonymously about internal discussions.
Furthermore, the Trump campaign has made little effort to establish a broader presence in New Hampshire since the primary. While the campaign retains its headquarters in Manchester and has “several” paid staff members on the ground, Leavitt declined to provide specific numbers.
“I’m not seeing any organized effort on Trump’s behalf, whatsoever,” stated Fergus Cullen, a former New Hampshire GOP chair. “I’m not getting any phone calls, automated or otherwise. I’m not seeing a county headquarters.”
However, Republicans associated with Trump’s campaign in New Hampshire argue that they are developing a solid grassroots movement for their nominee. The campaign is conducting training sessions for volunteers out of its office in Manchester and online. Supporters have participated in local parades and organized a boat parade last month on Lake Winnipesaukee.
There may be strategic advantages to Trump staying away from New Hampshire for now. If he visits before Tuesday, the former president could feel compelled to intervene in the competitive gubernatorial primary, where polls suggest former state Senate President Chuck Morse, aligned with Trump’s campaign, is trailing behind former Sen. Kelly Ayotte.
Post-Tuesday, “it would be good of him and [Ohio Sen.] JD Vance to show up,” said Sean Van Anglen, a Republican consultant in the state.
“I have hopes they can win in New Hampshire — but you have to be here. You have to go person to person, you have to have surrogates here, the candidate’s got to be here a few times,” Van Anglen noted about the state known for its emphasis on direct voter engagement. “I know it’s only four electoral votes, but it has played a crucial role in so many presidential elections.”
The limited scope of the Trump campaign’s operations in New Hampshire stands in stark contrast to those of his rivals. Democrats have inundated the state with field offices and sent numerous prominent figures, including California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, and California Rep. Ro Khanna to lead canvassing efforts and fundraisers. Biden himself visited the state twice following the primary — partly to smooth over tensions after disputes between state and national Democrats regarding the 2024 nominating calendar led to him omitting his name from the January ballot.
On Wednesday, it was Harris’ turn to rally support. Positioned behind thick glass at a stage surrounded by excited supporters, she expressed her appreciation for New Hampshire — “it’s so good to be back in New Hampshire” — and urged her backers to consider her campaign as the “underdog” against Trump.
“This race is going to be tight until the very end,” Harris warned. “But we are up to the task. And with your help, we will win in November.”
Ian Smith contributed to this report for TROIB News
Despite claims from his campaign that he can win here, some of Trump's staunchest supporters in this blue-leaning swing state are voicing opinions that the campaign should allocate its resources elsewhere.
“This election is going to be won in those seven swing states” and not in New Hampshire, remarked Lou Gargiulo, who co-chairs Trump’s campaign in this state. “That’s where the effort’s got to be put.”
This marks a significant change from earlier when New Hampshire was seen as a viable battleground where Trump's campaign anticipated expanding its electoral reach amid President Joe Biden's struggles. Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley stated days after the June debate that the party had begun to “engage” in New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Virginia. A survey conducted post-debate showed Trump had erased Biden’s polling advantage in the Granite State, leaving Republicans optimistic and Democrats uneasy.
However, New Hampshire now reflects how Trump's campaign is narrowing as he prepares for a race against Kamala Harris. Recent surveys indicate that the vice president has established a lead over Trump, prompting her to strengthen that position with a campaign event at a Seacoast brewery, where she promoted a new plan aimed at providing tax breaks for small businesses. Race trackers have moved the state further leftward, and Republicans in New Hampshire are privately expressing concerns about Trump's campaign’s inadequate investment in a state dominated by Democrats in field offices at a ratio of 17 to 1.
“The Trump campaign does not appear to be matching or contesting” New Hampshire, commented Matthew Bartlett, a Republican strategist from the state and a former Trump administration appointee.
“Organizationally speaking there have been no visits, no surrogates. They have their institutional support and they’re going to go with it,” Bartlett added. “Whereas Democrats, even with a lead, continue to flood the zone week after week with high-profile people.”
Trump's campaign asserts that it is indeed contesting New Hampshire, where he has won GOP primaries three times but lost two consecutive general elections, including a 7 percentage point defeat to Biden in 2020. Karoline Leavitt, a spokesperson from New Hampshire, insisted the campaign is “maintaining an offensive posture” in New Hampshire as well as in the other blue-leaning swing states of Minnesota and Virginia.
“They’re not in our target seven battleground states,” Leavitt stated. But New Hampshire is “certainly a state we believe the president can flip red.”
On Wednesday, Harris aimed to pressure Trump by promoting her latest economic initiative to a crowd of over 3,000 who waited in the heat to attend — while criticizing Trump’s positions on various issues including taxes and abortion access.
“We will move forward because ours is a fight for the future and it is a fight for freedom,” Harris stated. “And I don’t have to tell the folks in New Hampshire, the Live Free or Die state — you know the importance of individual freedoms.”
Trump and his supporters interpreted Harris’ visit as an indication that Democrats are anxious about their prospects in a state that has not supported a Republican presidential candidate since 2000 and is considered “likely” to vote blue in November.
“Comrade Kamala Harris sees there are problems for her campaign in New Hampshire because of the fact that they disrespected it in their primary and never showed up,” Trump posted on his Truth Social platform Tuesday. “I protected New Hampshire’s First-In-The-Nation Primary and ALWAYS will! To my friends in New Hampshire, get out and vote TRUMP.”
He also promised to return to New Hampshire before the election while participating in a local radio show Wednesday morning.
“It’s a very important place in terms of winning this election. It could come down to New Hampshire. I'll be there,” Trump declared.
Despite this commitment, he did not specify a date for his visit. In the meantime, the campaign has not sent any notable surrogates to rally support since North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and Florida Rep. Byron Donalds appeared back in April and May, respectively — even after requests from the state GOP, according to a source who spoke anonymously about internal discussions.
Furthermore, the Trump campaign has made little effort to establish a broader presence in New Hampshire since the primary. While the campaign retains its headquarters in Manchester and has “several” paid staff members on the ground, Leavitt declined to provide specific numbers.
“I’m not seeing any organized effort on Trump’s behalf, whatsoever,” stated Fergus Cullen, a former New Hampshire GOP chair. “I’m not getting any phone calls, automated or otherwise. I’m not seeing a county headquarters.”
However, Republicans associated with Trump’s campaign in New Hampshire argue that they are developing a solid grassroots movement for their nominee. The campaign is conducting training sessions for volunteers out of its office in Manchester and online. Supporters have participated in local parades and organized a boat parade last month on Lake Winnipesaukee.
There may be strategic advantages to Trump staying away from New Hampshire for now. If he visits before Tuesday, the former president could feel compelled to intervene in the competitive gubernatorial primary, where polls suggest former state Senate President Chuck Morse, aligned with Trump’s campaign, is trailing behind former Sen. Kelly Ayotte.
Post-Tuesday, “it would be good of him and [Ohio Sen.] JD Vance to show up,” said Sean Van Anglen, a Republican consultant in the state.
“I have hopes they can win in New Hampshire — but you have to be here. You have to go person to person, you have to have surrogates here, the candidate’s got to be here a few times,” Van Anglen noted about the state known for its emphasis on direct voter engagement. “I know it’s only four electoral votes, but it has played a crucial role in so many presidential elections.”
The limited scope of the Trump campaign’s operations in New Hampshire stands in stark contrast to those of his rivals. Democrats have inundated the state with field offices and sent numerous prominent figures, including California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, and California Rep. Ro Khanna to lead canvassing efforts and fundraisers. Biden himself visited the state twice following the primary — partly to smooth over tensions after disputes between state and national Democrats regarding the 2024 nominating calendar led to him omitting his name from the January ballot.
On Wednesday, it was Harris’ turn to rally support. Positioned behind thick glass at a stage surrounded by excited supporters, she expressed her appreciation for New Hampshire — “it’s so good to be back in New Hampshire” — and urged her backers to consider her campaign as the “underdog” against Trump.
“This race is going to be tight until the very end,” Harris warned. “But we are up to the task. And with your help, we will win in November.”
Ian Smith contributed to this report for TROIB News
