Democrats Observe Warning Signs for Harris Among Young Voters in Arizona
In 2020, Arizona saw a historic turnout of young voters. Currently, Trump is gaining traction among this demographic.
TroibNews 
PHOENIX — Young voters may be entering their voting era, but many are not inclined to support Kamala Harris, raising concerns among Democrats in Arizona about her prospects.
In 2020, youth turnout hit a record high in Arizona, playing a crucial role in flipping the state to blue for Joe Biden. However, four years later, some Democratic strategists are worried that Donald Trump has gained traction with younger voters — notably young men and young Latinos — thereby diminishing one of the party's most critical, albeit unpredictable, demographics.
While Harris is grappling with similar challenges nationally, including in vital states like Michigan, the situation appears particularly pronounced in the West, where young Latinos constitute over 40 percent of all newly eligible voters.
Recent polling indicates that even some young voters who plan on supporting Democrats in various races do not intend to back Harris. In the latest New York Times/Siena College poll, Trump is ahead of Harris by 5 points in Arizona, while Democratic Senate candidate Ruben Gallego has a 7-point lead over GOP contender Kari Lake. The disparity among youth voters is even more pronounced: Harris leads Trump 53-44 among 18 to 29-year-olds, whereas Gallego leads Lake 58-28.
Jacob Marson, executive director of the youth-centered group Keep Arizona Blue, noted that his organization has engaged with numerous young individuals who are invested in political issues but feel disillusioned by the system. "They’ve been disenfranchised with the political system. They’re not into candidates," Marson said. "They’ve been told things, and they don’t see a difference in their lives."
No Democratic presidential candidate in modern history has captured less than 60 percent of the youth vote, a benchmark that Biden achieved in 2020. Despite the challenges of accurately gauging younger voters' sentiments, current polls suggest that Harris is close to, but possibly falling short of, that threshold.
The Harvard Youth Poll shows Harris with a significant lead, 64 percent to 32 percent, over Trump among likely voters under 30, while a CNN poll from SSRS last month found her with a narrower 12-point margin with likely voters aged 35 and younger. "She’s knocking on that door," said John Della Volpe, director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics. "I think she’s comfortably in the mid-50s."
The Harris campaign remains optimistic about reaching younger voters, particularly young men and Latinos. Recently, the campaign emphasized economic policies aimed at benefiting Latino men, and Harris will participate in Hispanic media interviews alongside Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff, continuing their "Hombres con Harris" initiative, which started in Arizona. "These undecided voters are just tuning in now to the election and are getable in this last stretch when the election is finally real to them," said campaign spokesperson Kevin Munoz.
However, the mid-50s may be insufficient for Harris in a tightly contested race. Even if her numbers rise, she still needs to motivate those voters to support her specifically, not just other Democrats on the ballot. In 2020, more Arizonans voted for Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly than for Biden, and some Democrats worry that a similar scenario could unfold this year with Gallego and Harris.
Progressive organizations focused on youth engagement highlight that one of Harris’ key obstacles is convincing younger voters that the Biden-Harris administration has positively impacted their lives and clarifying what she would accomplish as president. They argue that demonstrating results from long-term issues like climate change and gun control is more complex compared to showing how the administration has benefited seniors, such as capping insulin prices at $35 under Medicare. “The question becomes, ‘What are Kamala and Democrats doing? Because we haven’t really seen a shift,’” said Alejandra Gomez, executive director of Living United for Change in Arizona. “And then because of the dysfunction and polarization, there’s also just a lot more, in Spanish it’s like, resignación — resignation. We’re resigned, like, well this is what it is, so we have to really walk people back from that.”
Frustration with the political process has led some young people to abstain from voting altogether. Others, having spent their entire adult lives under Biden’s administration amidst an economic situation they attribute to him, are opting for Trump, who last held office while many of these voters were still in elementary school.
“I don’t know if I would say [Trump] was my first choice, but I also don’t think that Kamala is very good. Just some of the things that she says, they make me so anxious,” said Shay Gardner, a 19-year-old Arizona State University student, during a recent morning in downtown Phoenix. “There are things Trump says that make me anxious, too. Ultimately, it’s just trying to decide, who do I think will do the least damage over the next four years — and then hopefully things might get better.”
To engage young voters, the Harris campaign has implemented a comprehensive strategy focusing on college campuses, online platforms, and community events, including concerts and sports. This fall, the campaign has rolled out a back-to-school initiative across 150 college campuses in battleground states, which includes targeted digital advertising, campaign events, and an increased youth organizing staff.
Recognizing the low trust among young voters for traditional media, the campaign has utilized influencers, particularly those with male-oriented audiences, to disseminate its message on social media platforms such as Instagram, TikTok, and Twitch. Targeted digital ads have also been placed on male-focused websites, including video game platforms and sports news sites. In Arizona, outreach efforts are specifically directed at younger Latino voters at local establishments like restaurants, barber shops, and lowrider gatherings.
“I’m in a car club, and the conversations we have even within our car clubs, it gets very interesting — and we’re starting to see more and more of them flip and lean towards Harris,” said Arizona state Rep. Cesar Aguilar, a Democrat and the youngest legislator in the state. “They’re finally having those difficult conversations that need to be had.”
Trump and his allies have committed significant resources to connect with young voters, including the Send the Vote initiative. The youth-focused group Turning Point Action has played a pivotal role in galvanizing young conservatives, conducting voter registration drives and distributing MAGA hats at Arizona State University, the University of Arizona, and Grand Canyon University. “We have never seen youth enthusiasm anywhere near this for the Republican candidate,” said Andrew Kolvet, a spokesperson for Turning Point Action. “It's cool to be conservative if you’re young. Like, if you love America, and you're proud to be American, and you want to be proud to be an American, it's cool. It’s cool now.”
“ We still might not have the majority [of the youth vote]. But our job is to lose by less, it’s to close the margin there, so that there's less ground to make up with the other demos,” Kolvet added.
Halee Dobbins, Trump's Arizona spokesperson, emphasized the campaign's active engagement with young voters, including efforts targeting Black, Hispanic, and Native American communities in various settings such as college campuses, festivals, and markets.
There are indications in Arizona that Trump's outreach may be successful. Despite warnings from experts that Trump's proposals could exacerbate inflation, the former president is promoting an economic shift that resonates with young voters. Young men, in particular, are increasingly attracted to both Trump's persona and economic message. While Harris still maintains a 17-point lead with young men, this is a diminished margin compared to the 47-point advantage she holds over young women, as indicated by the latest Harvard Youth Poll. She still has work to do with young voters overall.
“I don’t like Trump as a person. I don’t think he’s a great person. And I think he needs to get Twitter taken away from him — please — because he has some really loud opinions that aren’t the best. But as a whole, his policies are much more aligned with my beliefs,” said Madelyn Dwyer, 20, who is also voting for Trump. “Our economy right now is in the gutter. I’m 20 — so I’m going into adulthood — and I want to be able to buy a house. I bought my first car and it was so much money. And I don’t want to be in crazy debt.”
Sophie Wagner for TROIB News
In 2020, youth turnout hit a record high in Arizona, playing a crucial role in flipping the state to blue for Joe Biden. However, four years later, some Democratic strategists are worried that Donald Trump has gained traction with younger voters — notably young men and young Latinos — thereby diminishing one of the party's most critical, albeit unpredictable, demographics.
While Harris is grappling with similar challenges nationally, including in vital states like Michigan, the situation appears particularly pronounced in the West, where young Latinos constitute over 40 percent of all newly eligible voters.
Recent polling indicates that even some young voters who plan on supporting Democrats in various races do not intend to back Harris. In the latest New York Times/Siena College poll, Trump is ahead of Harris by 5 points in Arizona, while Democratic Senate candidate Ruben Gallego has a 7-point lead over GOP contender Kari Lake. The disparity among youth voters is even more pronounced: Harris leads Trump 53-44 among 18 to 29-year-olds, whereas Gallego leads Lake 58-28.
Jacob Marson, executive director of the youth-centered group Keep Arizona Blue, noted that his organization has engaged with numerous young individuals who are invested in political issues but feel disillusioned by the system. "They’ve been disenfranchised with the political system. They’re not into candidates," Marson said. "They’ve been told things, and they don’t see a difference in their lives."
No Democratic presidential candidate in modern history has captured less than 60 percent of the youth vote, a benchmark that Biden achieved in 2020. Despite the challenges of accurately gauging younger voters' sentiments, current polls suggest that Harris is close to, but possibly falling short of, that threshold.
The Harvard Youth Poll shows Harris with a significant lead, 64 percent to 32 percent, over Trump among likely voters under 30, while a CNN poll from SSRS last month found her with a narrower 12-point margin with likely voters aged 35 and younger. "She’s knocking on that door," said John Della Volpe, director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics. "I think she’s comfortably in the mid-50s."
The Harris campaign remains optimistic about reaching younger voters, particularly young men and Latinos. Recently, the campaign emphasized economic policies aimed at benefiting Latino men, and Harris will participate in Hispanic media interviews alongside Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff, continuing their "Hombres con Harris" initiative, which started in Arizona. "These undecided voters are just tuning in now to the election and are getable in this last stretch when the election is finally real to them," said campaign spokesperson Kevin Munoz.
However, the mid-50s may be insufficient for Harris in a tightly contested race. Even if her numbers rise, she still needs to motivate those voters to support her specifically, not just other Democrats on the ballot. In 2020, more Arizonans voted for Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly than for Biden, and some Democrats worry that a similar scenario could unfold this year with Gallego and Harris.
Progressive organizations focused on youth engagement highlight that one of Harris’ key obstacles is convincing younger voters that the Biden-Harris administration has positively impacted their lives and clarifying what she would accomplish as president. They argue that demonstrating results from long-term issues like climate change and gun control is more complex compared to showing how the administration has benefited seniors, such as capping insulin prices at $35 under Medicare. “The question becomes, ‘What are Kamala and Democrats doing? Because we haven’t really seen a shift,’” said Alejandra Gomez, executive director of Living United for Change in Arizona. “And then because of the dysfunction and polarization, there’s also just a lot more, in Spanish it’s like, resignación — resignation. We’re resigned, like, well this is what it is, so we have to really walk people back from that.”
Frustration with the political process has led some young people to abstain from voting altogether. Others, having spent their entire adult lives under Biden’s administration amidst an economic situation they attribute to him, are opting for Trump, who last held office while many of these voters were still in elementary school.
“I don’t know if I would say [Trump] was my first choice, but I also don’t think that Kamala is very good. Just some of the things that she says, they make me so anxious,” said Shay Gardner, a 19-year-old Arizona State University student, during a recent morning in downtown Phoenix. “There are things Trump says that make me anxious, too. Ultimately, it’s just trying to decide, who do I think will do the least damage over the next four years — and then hopefully things might get better.”
To engage young voters, the Harris campaign has implemented a comprehensive strategy focusing on college campuses, online platforms, and community events, including concerts and sports. This fall, the campaign has rolled out a back-to-school initiative across 150 college campuses in battleground states, which includes targeted digital advertising, campaign events, and an increased youth organizing staff.
Recognizing the low trust among young voters for traditional media, the campaign has utilized influencers, particularly those with male-oriented audiences, to disseminate its message on social media platforms such as Instagram, TikTok, and Twitch. Targeted digital ads have also been placed on male-focused websites, including video game platforms and sports news sites. In Arizona, outreach efforts are specifically directed at younger Latino voters at local establishments like restaurants, barber shops, and lowrider gatherings.
“I’m in a car club, and the conversations we have even within our car clubs, it gets very interesting — and we’re starting to see more and more of them flip and lean towards Harris,” said Arizona state Rep. Cesar Aguilar, a Democrat and the youngest legislator in the state. “They’re finally having those difficult conversations that need to be had.”
Trump and his allies have committed significant resources to connect with young voters, including the Send the Vote initiative. The youth-focused group Turning Point Action has played a pivotal role in galvanizing young conservatives, conducting voter registration drives and distributing MAGA hats at Arizona State University, the University of Arizona, and Grand Canyon University. “We have never seen youth enthusiasm anywhere near this for the Republican candidate,” said Andrew Kolvet, a spokesperson for Turning Point Action. “It's cool to be conservative if you’re young. Like, if you love America, and you're proud to be American, and you want to be proud to be an American, it's cool. It’s cool now.”
“ We still might not have the majority [of the youth vote]. But our job is to lose by less, it’s to close the margin there, so that there's less ground to make up with the other demos,” Kolvet added.
Halee Dobbins, Trump's Arizona spokesperson, emphasized the campaign's active engagement with young voters, including efforts targeting Black, Hispanic, and Native American communities in various settings such as college campuses, festivals, and markets.
There are indications in Arizona that Trump's outreach may be successful. Despite warnings from experts that Trump's proposals could exacerbate inflation, the former president is promoting an economic shift that resonates with young voters. Young men, in particular, are increasingly attracted to both Trump's persona and economic message. While Harris still maintains a 17-point lead with young men, this is a diminished margin compared to the 47-point advantage she holds over young women, as indicated by the latest Harvard Youth Poll. She still has work to do with young voters overall.
“I don’t like Trump as a person. I don’t think he’s a great person. And I think he needs to get Twitter taken away from him — please — because he has some really loud opinions that aren’t the best. But as a whole, his policies are much more aligned with my beliefs,” said Madelyn Dwyer, 20, who is also voting for Trump. “Our economy right now is in the gutter. I’m 20 — so I’m going into adulthood — and I want to be able to buy a house. I bought my first car and it was so much money. And I don’t want to be in crazy debt.”
Sophie Wagner for TROIB News
