Bob Good's future hangs in the balance as nail-biter primary remains too close to call

The political future of House Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good is coming down to the final votes.

After a bitter primary battle with rival John McGuire in south-central Virginia’s 5th Congressional District, the vote count showed an exceedingly tight result Tuesday night, far closer than many expected. With each update to the results, Good and McGuire traded leads that at times were as low as single digits.

It was a surprisingly strong showing for Good — and a potential demonstration of the power of incumbency — given the array of Republican forces that had coalesced to take him out. McGuire was backed by allies of both former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and former President Donald Trump in a race that saw more than $14.5 million in ad spending.

McGuire, a Virginia state senator, was widely seen as having the upper hand heading into Election Day because of the support that flowed to him from across the GOP’s many factions. But the electorate was clearly split, and by 9:30 p.m. it was the only congressional race in the state left to call.

With a small lead of just a few hundred votes, McGuire prematurely declared victory in a speech at his election party in Lynchburg shortly before midnight. But the race was too close to call and the Associated Press had not determined a winner by early Wednesday morning.

“We need leaders that know how to put petty differences aside and bring people together for a better future,” McGuire said. “And that's what I'm all about.”

Good thanked his supporters on X and noted that not all votes had yet been counted.

“[W]e are still waiting for the results of mail-in ballots and provisional ballots,” Good wrote. “We are doing what we can to ensure we have teams of observers and legal counsel to ensure all the votes are properly counted in the coming days.”

The primary battle had exposed deep divisions in the House GOP and the MAGA movement — and the fault lines centered around personal beefs and petty arguments, not diverging ideologies. Several House Republicans endorsed McGuire, calling Good an inconsiderate colleague, and even a member of Good’s typically rigidly unified House Freedom Caucus opposed him. Most notably, McCarthy’s allies sought revenge on Good for voting to depose the former speaker, and Trump endorsed McGuire after Good initially backed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the presidential primary.

The fact that such a strong anti-Good coalition could not decisively take him out belies the central problem for the House GOP establishment.

Mainstream GOP groups and donors have plowed millions of dollars into a broad campaign to mold a more functional conference. That includes excising members like Good who have caused chaos, protecting pragmatic incumbents and intervening in open races for preferred candidates. They have had some successes so far, but it's taken a massive amount of time, effort and money.

And any one individual loss could yield a member that could single-handedly derail a future or current House Republican majority.

As Republicans from across the party watched the results Tuesday night, both campaigns scrambled to figure out their response. At their respective watch parties, groups of supporters mingled while refreshing election results and discussing the possible outcomes.

At one point in the night, Good and a group of his supporters joined together in prayer. Just as they said, “Amen,” a batch of results rolled in from Lynchburg, home of Liberty University, that briefly put Good ever so slightly ahead.

That prompted cheers that could be heard outside the room, Good campaign spokesman Rafaello Carone said.

The final result could take weeks to determine.

It will take days to count all the remaining votes, and then the race is very likely heading to a recount. If the difference between the two candidates is less than 1 percent in Virginia, the trailing candidate can request a recount. And if the margin is less than 0.5 percent — where it was just after midnight Wednesday — the state would shoulder the cost, making it a virtual certainty that the losing candidate would request a recount.

Generally, the Associated Press — which POLITICO and other media outlets rely on to declare winners — does not call a race that could head to a recount.

Adding to the uncertainty: There is an unknown number of outstanding mail ballots. In Virginia, ballots that are postmarked by Election Day but received by election officials by noon on Friday are still counted. That number is likely very small in this contest, given Republicans' general disposition to not vote by mail. But if there is a razor-thin margin, every single ballot matters.

If there is a tie, the winner will be drawn at random, which happened in a 2017 legislative race.

Whatever the ultimate outcome, it is certain to reverberate across the House GOP as Good’s colleagues anxiously wait to see whether the bomb-throwing lawmaker will be further emboldened to cause turmoil in the House in the final months before the fall election.

Zach Montellaro contributed to this article.