Biden Nears Boundary of Influence Over Israel
Following a year of dedicated efforts, the United States might find itself unable to prevent a full-scale regional war.
TroibNews 
President Joe Biden and his senior aides have advised Israel to refrain from launching direct attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities in its response to Tehran, reflecting the limitations of U.S. influence over Israel's actions. Following a barrage of Iranian rockets and missiles targeting Israel on Tuesday, the Biden administration is focused on guiding Israel's response rather than deterring it altogether, as noted by two administration officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private matters.
This directive highlights the decreasing influence Biden has on Middle Eastern affairs, acknowledging that he may struggle to prevent the regional war his administration has been striving to avoid for the past year.
In April, after Israel successfully defended against an Iranian attack, Biden encouraged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to "take the win" and avoid escalating tensions further.
However, in the past six months, the dynamics in both the Middle East and Washington have shifted significantly. The recent Iranian assault was notably larger and struck closer to key Israeli population centers. This followed Israel's impressive intelligence operation that severely weakened Iran’s primary militant proxy, Hezbollah, leading to clashes along the Lebanese border. Additionally, Biden finds himself in a vulnerable position as president, attempting to broker Middle East cease-fire agreements while facing pressure from hawkish Republicans demanding action against Iran amid a politically charged environment influencing his successor, Vice President Kamala Harris, and Donald Trump.
Israel has made it clear that it intends to respond decisively to Iran. Netanyahu stated in a public address after the attack that Tehran would "pay for it," emphasizing, "We will stand by the rule we established: Whoever attacks, we will attack them."
On Wednesday, Biden informed reporters that he did not endorse an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear sites, though he refrained from elaborating on discussions with Israel regarding this risk. “We'll be discussing with the Israelis what they're going to do, but [the Group of 7 countries] agree that they have a right to respond, but they should respond in proportion,” he said.
Biden also indicated that sanctions would be levied against Iran. Officials mentioned that thorough communication was taking place with Israel regarding potential responses, which could involve military action. Possible options being considered include strikes on Iran-aligned militias or directly targeting Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces in Yemen or Syria. A second official noted that U.S. aides preferred a tactical but measured response.
However, Biden's ability to influence events is diminishing. Over the past months, Netanyahu’s government has largely disregarded U.S. advice on conducting the war in Gaza against Hamas following the terrorist assaults on October 7. Biden and his aides expressed frustration over Israel’s expanding military objectives in Gaza, which have severely affected Palestinian civilians, even risking delays in negotiations to free remaining hostages.
Biden described Israel’s military actions as “over the top” and halted one shipment of American arms to the country. Despite growing pressure from fellow Democrats to distance himself from Netanyahu, Biden has instinctively favored supporting Israel amid a worsening humanitarian situation. As his sway over Netanyahu lessened, his frustration grew; conversations between the two reportedly turned into heated exchanges, according to one official and another unnamed senior official. Biden confided to allies that he believed Netanyahu was not genuinely interested in pursuing a cease-fire, suggesting that the Israeli leader might be trying to prolong the conflict for his political benefit and to aid Trump in the upcoming election.
Recent developments, including Israel’s significant attack that targeted Hezbollah militants' operations in Lebanon, further illustrate what critics see as the growing impotence of the U.S. in the region. Initially, Netanyahu expressed support for a pause in fighting, but he ultimately rejected the cease-fire proposal after it became public. The day after delivering a vigorous speech at the United Nations, Israel conducted a missile strike in Beirut that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, leaving the militant organization in a vulnerable position.
“The campaign against Hezbollah has been very effective so far and will likely continue,” commented Chuck Freilich, a former Israeli deputy national security adviser. “One question now is whether they will be able to respond more massively and in coordination with any future Iranian attacks.”
On Tuesday, Biden and Harris held two meetings with their national security team and made public intelligence indicating that Iran was poised for an imminent attack on Israel. Key members of their team, such as Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, communicated with their Israeli counterparts, and U.S. destroyers in the area assisted in intercepting approximately 200 incoming projectiles.
"We are proud of the actions that we've taken alongside Israel to protect and defend Israel,” stated national security adviser Jake Sullivan. “We have made clear that there will be consequences — severe consequences — for this attack, and we will work with Israel to make that the case."
Biden directed the Pentagon to support Israel's Iron Dome and other defense systems in countering the Iranian offensive — an attack that, according to initial assessments by Israeli military officials, resulted in no Israeli casualties. This success echoed Israel's earlier victory in April when it, with American support, repelled an Iranian missile attack in retaliation for Israel's prior bombing of an Iranian consulate in Damascus.
At that time, Biden had told Netanyahu to “take the win” and clarified that the U.S. would not assist Israel in retaliatory actions against Iran. Ultimately, Israel's response was relatively restrained, targeting a critical military site without escalating tensions significantly.
Yet, the boldness of the latest Israeli strikes — details of which were not disclosed to U.S. officials beforehand — was notable, matched only by their effectiveness.
“Netanyahu is showing much more willingness to take risks and gamble, and he's feeling very bold, because Israel has significantly weakened [Tehran’s] proxies, and they understand they can see that Iran is in a weaker position,” observed Hagar Chemali, a former National Security Council and Treasury Department official in the Obama administration. “I expect a strong response, something significant that achieves their own national security objectives.”
Biden has faced relentless criticism from Republicans regarding his management of the Gaza conflict, with many asserting that he has not adequately supported Israel. In light of Iran's attack, Republican voices have amplified their demands for Biden to assist Israel in seeking retribution.
“This is a moment of choosing for the free world regarding Iran,” Sen. Lindsey Graham posted on the social media platform X. “This missile attack against Israel should be the breaking point and I would urge the Biden Administration to coordinate an overwhelming response with Israel.”
At a rally on Tuesday, Trump characterized the escalating situation in the Middle East as “very close to global catastrophe,” placing blame on the Biden-Harris administration. The rapidly changing circumstances in the Middle East are expected to loom large as the presidential campaign unfolds.
“The Biden administration, appropriately, is still arguing to prevent a regional war,” remarked retired U.S. Army Gen. Barry McCaffrey. “These are painful days for Israel [and] they have every right to consider every option. But the consequences are hard to gauge. What we know is that these are days of great peril.”
Mark B Thomas for TROIB News
This directive highlights the decreasing influence Biden has on Middle Eastern affairs, acknowledging that he may struggle to prevent the regional war his administration has been striving to avoid for the past year.
In April, after Israel successfully defended against an Iranian attack, Biden encouraged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to "take the win" and avoid escalating tensions further.
However, in the past six months, the dynamics in both the Middle East and Washington have shifted significantly. The recent Iranian assault was notably larger and struck closer to key Israeli population centers. This followed Israel's impressive intelligence operation that severely weakened Iran’s primary militant proxy, Hezbollah, leading to clashes along the Lebanese border. Additionally, Biden finds himself in a vulnerable position as president, attempting to broker Middle East cease-fire agreements while facing pressure from hawkish Republicans demanding action against Iran amid a politically charged environment influencing his successor, Vice President Kamala Harris, and Donald Trump.
Israel has made it clear that it intends to respond decisively to Iran. Netanyahu stated in a public address after the attack that Tehran would "pay for it," emphasizing, "We will stand by the rule we established: Whoever attacks, we will attack them."
On Wednesday, Biden informed reporters that he did not endorse an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear sites, though he refrained from elaborating on discussions with Israel regarding this risk. “We'll be discussing with the Israelis what they're going to do, but [the Group of 7 countries] agree that they have a right to respond, but they should respond in proportion,” he said.
Biden also indicated that sanctions would be levied against Iran. Officials mentioned that thorough communication was taking place with Israel regarding potential responses, which could involve military action. Possible options being considered include strikes on Iran-aligned militias or directly targeting Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces in Yemen or Syria. A second official noted that U.S. aides preferred a tactical but measured response.
However, Biden's ability to influence events is diminishing. Over the past months, Netanyahu’s government has largely disregarded U.S. advice on conducting the war in Gaza against Hamas following the terrorist assaults on October 7. Biden and his aides expressed frustration over Israel’s expanding military objectives in Gaza, which have severely affected Palestinian civilians, even risking delays in negotiations to free remaining hostages.
Biden described Israel’s military actions as “over the top” and halted one shipment of American arms to the country. Despite growing pressure from fellow Democrats to distance himself from Netanyahu, Biden has instinctively favored supporting Israel amid a worsening humanitarian situation. As his sway over Netanyahu lessened, his frustration grew; conversations between the two reportedly turned into heated exchanges, according to one official and another unnamed senior official. Biden confided to allies that he believed Netanyahu was not genuinely interested in pursuing a cease-fire, suggesting that the Israeli leader might be trying to prolong the conflict for his political benefit and to aid Trump in the upcoming election.
Recent developments, including Israel’s significant attack that targeted Hezbollah militants' operations in Lebanon, further illustrate what critics see as the growing impotence of the U.S. in the region. Initially, Netanyahu expressed support for a pause in fighting, but he ultimately rejected the cease-fire proposal after it became public. The day after delivering a vigorous speech at the United Nations, Israel conducted a missile strike in Beirut that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, leaving the militant organization in a vulnerable position.
“The campaign against Hezbollah has been very effective so far and will likely continue,” commented Chuck Freilich, a former Israeli deputy national security adviser. “One question now is whether they will be able to respond more massively and in coordination with any future Iranian attacks.”
On Tuesday, Biden and Harris held two meetings with their national security team and made public intelligence indicating that Iran was poised for an imminent attack on Israel. Key members of their team, such as Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, communicated with their Israeli counterparts, and U.S. destroyers in the area assisted in intercepting approximately 200 incoming projectiles.
"We are proud of the actions that we've taken alongside Israel to protect and defend Israel,” stated national security adviser Jake Sullivan. “We have made clear that there will be consequences — severe consequences — for this attack, and we will work with Israel to make that the case."
Biden directed the Pentagon to support Israel's Iron Dome and other defense systems in countering the Iranian offensive — an attack that, according to initial assessments by Israeli military officials, resulted in no Israeli casualties. This success echoed Israel's earlier victory in April when it, with American support, repelled an Iranian missile attack in retaliation for Israel's prior bombing of an Iranian consulate in Damascus.
At that time, Biden had told Netanyahu to “take the win” and clarified that the U.S. would not assist Israel in retaliatory actions against Iran. Ultimately, Israel's response was relatively restrained, targeting a critical military site without escalating tensions significantly.
Yet, the boldness of the latest Israeli strikes — details of which were not disclosed to U.S. officials beforehand — was notable, matched only by their effectiveness.
“Netanyahu is showing much more willingness to take risks and gamble, and he's feeling very bold, because Israel has significantly weakened [Tehran’s] proxies, and they understand they can see that Iran is in a weaker position,” observed Hagar Chemali, a former National Security Council and Treasury Department official in the Obama administration. “I expect a strong response, something significant that achieves their own national security objectives.”
Biden has faced relentless criticism from Republicans regarding his management of the Gaza conflict, with many asserting that he has not adequately supported Israel. In light of Iran's attack, Republican voices have amplified their demands for Biden to assist Israel in seeking retribution.
“This is a moment of choosing for the free world regarding Iran,” Sen. Lindsey Graham posted on the social media platform X. “This missile attack against Israel should be the breaking point and I would urge the Biden Administration to coordinate an overwhelming response with Israel.”
At a rally on Tuesday, Trump characterized the escalating situation in the Middle East as “very close to global catastrophe,” placing blame on the Biden-Harris administration. The rapidly changing circumstances in the Middle East are expected to loom large as the presidential campaign unfolds.
“The Biden administration, appropriately, is still arguing to prevent a regional war,” remarked retired U.S. Army Gen. Barry McCaffrey. “These are painful days for Israel [and] they have every right to consider every option. But the consequences are hard to gauge. What we know is that these are days of great peril.”
Mark B Thomas for TROIB News
