`A bubble looking for a pin': Assets linked to Trump experience downturn

The downturns highlight the significant change that has shaken the U.S. financial markets in recent weeks.

`A bubble looking for a pin': Assets linked to Trump experience downturn
Wall Street is experiencing a significant downturn that is affecting even the most speculative assets associated with President Donald Trump.

Investments linked to the Trump brand — from Trump's majority ownership in Trump Media & Technology Group to the cryptocurrencies endorsed by him and First Lady Melania Trump — have seen substantial drops in value since Inauguration Day, reflecting a wider trend of selling off in the riskier sectors of the market.

Shares of Trump Media, which operates Truth Social, have plummeted by 36 percent. The $TRUMP memecoin, a cryptocurrency that was launched shortly before Trump's swearing-in, has declined by 64 percent. Meanwhile, the $MELANIA memecoin has collapsed from a peak of over $13 and is now trading for less than $1.

“Trump was an amazing catalyst for all of the Trump names,” stated Tuttle Capital Management CEO Matthew Tuttle. “But what happens is all this stuff becomes a bubble looking for a pin, and eventually, the bubble always finds the pin. These things can’t defy gravity forever.”

These downturns highlight a transformation that has unsettled U.S. financial markets in recent weeks, undermining the record highs that Trump often celebrates.

Over the last couple of years, investors had shown a willingness to take bold risks on a variety of assets, from tech companies and cryptocurrencies to memestocks—companies like Trump Media and GameStop whose shares are influenced by trader enthusiasm. However, amidst a climate of economic uncertainty, investors have begun to sell off assets indiscriminately.

The Magnificent Seven—an influential group of technology stocks including Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla—has dipped 6 percent for the year and recently entered correction territory, defined as a drop of 10 percent or more. Bitcoin, the premier cryptocurrency, has decreased by 23 percent since it reached its peak of over $109,000 on Inauguration Day. Additionally, Wall Street experts are cautioning that the current selloff may just be the beginning.

“We’re past due” for a market-clearing event, remarked Julian Klymochko, head of Calgary-based investment firm Accelerate Financial Technologies, who has closely monitored Trump Media’s shares. “There’s a significant amount of excess froth that needs to be worked through.”

Requests for comments from representatives of Trump Media and the Trump Organization went unanswered. On Tuesday, Eric Trump, the president’s son, shared a post on X stating, “Buy the dips!!!”

The market challenges might represent a necessary recalibration that could stabilize soon. In light of apprehensions regarding Trump's economic policies and their implications for inflation, the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation measure aligned with expectations when released Friday—alleviating some investors' concerns. Consequently, stocks saw a one-day rally.

“The stock market’s recent declines are simply garden variety volatility,” noted Robert Ruggirello, founder of Brave Eagle Wealth Management.

He pointed out that February has historically been a volatile month for stocks, while also highlighting gains made in January. “We do not believe that the recent market declines are a sign of some sort of deeper bear market on the horizon.”

According to Forbes, Trump has an estimated net worth of $5.1 billion, largely attributed to his real estate ventures and substantial stake in Trump Media. However, full transparency concerning his empire is limited since the Trump Organization is privately held. Nevertheless, due to the decline in share prices, Trump's stake in Trump Media—a publicly traded entity—has diminished from $4.6 billion at his inauguration to $2.8 billion today.

Trump Media, predominantly owned by Trump, has experienced wild fluctuations in share price since its debut last year. After peaking at $79.38 in March, the money-losing firm has struggled to regain stability.

While volatility is a characteristic of memecoins—a fact recognized by Trump’s own financial regulators—the downturn in both $TRUMP and $MELANIA has unsettled some investors.

According to data from crypto analytics firm Chainalysis shared with PMG, over 885,000 crypto wallets have incurred losses from trading $TRUMP, and 301,000 have lost money on $MELANIA. It's uncertain how many have opted to cash out, but total losses recorded by these wallets amount to nearly $2.5 billion.

Contrastingly, 1.2 million wallets have profited from trading these tokens, with their total gains exceeding $8 billion, as reported by Chainalysis.

The Trump family and its associates have also gained approximately $350 million through fees from trading the memecoins and by selling off some $TRUMP tokens, according to Chainalysis data.

For Tuttle, whose firm is working to establish a fund that would provide double the returns on Trump Media shares, the current selloff signifies a new reality in investing. Individual investors, who previously had a minimal role, have become a considerable force, especially since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, and they seem unfazed about re-entering risky investments after experiencing setbacks.

“They get juiced about stuff and they run things up and then they get their butt kicked — and then they do it again,” Tuttle explained. “So the Trump names and all of the retail favorites just ran up massively after the election. All of this stuff just got too ahead of itself.”

Navid Kalantari contributed to this report for TROIB News