When really is the X-date? It's hard to say. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are facing an upcoming deadline known as the X-date as the two continue their standoff on whether to increase the federal debt ceiling.

The X-date, the day the U.S. government says it can no longer fulfill all its financial obligations, is rapidly approaching, according to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, along with Wall Street economists and a top Washington think tank. Others say the X-date could occur anywhere from June to early August.

Here’s a breakdown of when experts believe the U.S. could default on its debt:

Janet Yellen predicts June 1

Yellen renewed her warning to congressional leaders on Monday that the U.S. risks running out of borrowing power in as little as 10 days.

Yellen contends that “it is highly likely” the Treasury Department won’t be able to pay all the bills in early June, potentially “as soon as June 1.”

“I indicated in my last letter to Congress that we expect to be unable to pay all of our bills in early June and possibly as soon as June 1. And I will continue to update Congress, but I certainly haven't changed my assessment. So I think that that's a hard deadline,” she said.

Moody’s Analytics predicts avoiding default

Moody’s is confident that Biden and McCarthy can avoid a default.

June 15 is the date when interest payments on U.S. debt are scheduled to be made. Analysts believe that the Treasury Department would do everything it could to have enough cash to make those payments to avoid a default.

William Foster, a senior vice president and senior credit officer at Moody’s, told POLITICO’s Morning Money that his team expects policymakers to reach an agreement before June 1 — which would spare Treasury from having to prioritize payments on government debt.

“If we got past the X-date where we’re in a period where there was prioritization of payments — and interest was continuing to be paid, but other payments were missed — we would have to reassess at that point,” Foster said.

Moody's said that as long as the U.S. pays interest and principal on bonds, it won't be in default even if it misses other payments like Social Security and military pay — notwithstanding the political peril.

Goldman Sachs predicts June 8 or 9

Goldman Sachs' chief political economist told Bloomberg that the U.S. could default on its debt on June 8 or 9.

X-date forecasts could vary because it depends on the amount of taxes and other revenue the U.S. government collects compared to how much it spends.

“The reality is that Congress has to do this at some point very soon, and they should just go ahead and do it,” Goldman Sachs Research Chief Political Economist Alec Phillips told Bloomberg. “So waiting for the last minute isn't necessarily the right move, even though we think that maybe they could go a little bit longer.”

Bipartisan Policy Center predicts early June to August

The Bipartisan Policy Center estimates a wider gap for when the X-date could occur, predicting that it could most likely happen between early June and early August.

If the Treasury Department can make it to the middle of June, the department would unlock a stream of cash that would keep the country from defaulting on its debt through June or even August, according to an analysis the center released Tuesday. But it’s unclear if the Treasury Department can make it to June 15.

“BPC projects that if policymakers do not act on the debt limit, Treasury will most likely have insufficient cash to meet all its financial obligations sometime between early June and early August 2023, with an elevated risk between June 2 and June 13,” the center states.