Trump's meeting with UK's Starmer provides a grim glimpse of what's next for Ukraine

Trump praised Britain's leader while providing minimal concessions, just one day before his scheduled meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Trump's meeting with UK's Starmer provides a grim glimpse of what's next for Ukraine
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer showered President Donald Trump with a collection of gifts during his inaugural visit to the White House on Thursday. This included commitments for increased defense spending, generous compliments, and a letter from King Charles III inviting Trump to a state dinner.

Trump was evidently delighted; however, this did not result in any reciprocation from him.

Trump remained indifferent to Starmer’s urgent request for a stronger U.S. commitment to safeguarding Ukraine, particularly after the ongoing conflict with Russia comes to an end. Aware that Trump has dismissed calls for “security guarantees” for Ukraine, Starmer sought something less stringent: a U.S. pledge to “backstop” European initiatives aimed at defending Ukraine against potential future Russian invasions.

Trump’s response was a flat dismissal.

“I don’t think so,” Trump stated alongside Starmer in the Oval Office. “I think when we have a deal, it’s going to be the deal.”

This tough stance provided a stark outlook for European allies anticipating a more favorable stance ahead of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to the White House on Friday, when he is expected to ink a significant agreement involving Ukraine’s rare earth minerals with U.S. investors to sway Trump.

In the Oval Office, Trump seemed unconcerned about the measures the U.S. might take to deter Russian President Vladimir Putin and expressed confidence in the former KGB agent’s reliability regarding any peace accords. He indicated that the forthcoming economic deal with Zelenskyy would suffice as a deterrent for Russia.

“It’s a backstop, you could say,” Trump remarked about the minerals agreement, echoing Starmer’s phrasing. “I don’t think anybody’s going to play around if we’re there with a lot of workers.”

Perhaps most troubling for Starmer and other NATO allies was Trump's casual attitude toward the prospect of a U.S. military response if British forces were attacked in Ukraine.

“They don’t need much help. They can take care of themselves very well,” Trump commented, before softening his stance. “The British have been incredible soldiers, incredible military, and they can take care of themselves. But if they need help, I’ll always be with the British, okay? I will always be with them. But they don’t need help.”

Moments after Trump’s remarks in the Oval Office, a reporter posed a direct question during the press conference that weighs heavily on all of Europe: whether he endorses Article V of the NATO charter, which stipulates that an attack on any member is considered an attack on all.

“I support it,” the president answered, implying that it was improbable that this provision would need to be invoked should a NATO ally face an attack while deployed in Ukraine. “I don’t think we’re going to have any reason for it. I think we’re going to have a very successful peace, and I think it’s going to be a long lasting peace. And I think it’s going to happen hopefully quickly. If it doesn’t happen quickly, it may not happen at all.”

When asked if their discussions had moved Trump closer to offering a military safety net for Europe’s security guarantees, Starmer only remarked that it had been “a very productive discussion,” emphasizing that a peace agreement “has to come first.”

He added: “Our teams are going to be talking about how we make sure that deal sticks, is lasting and enforced.”

Starmer’s visit came in the wake of French President Emmanuel Macron’s similar message during meetings with Trump earlier in the week: Europe is prepared to enhance its own defenses and support Ukraine, yet America’s military backing remains crucial in restraining Putin.

This message is becoming increasingly pertinent as Trump appears to align U.S. interests with those of Russia, adopting Putin’s narratives regarding the invasion of Ukraine as he seeks to forge alliances with the rogue nation.

Since returning Labour to No. 10 Downing Street last year after a lengthy absence from power, primarily by appealing to disenchanted blue-collar voters, Starmer approached Trump with warmth and respect during their initial public appearance. He acknowledged Trump’s role in shifting the conversation about Ukraine toward achieving peace.

“You’ve created a moment of tremendous opportunity to reach a historic peace deal, a deal that I think would be celebrated in Ukraine and around the world,” Starmer said to Trump during a press conference in the East Room post-discussions. “That is the prize. But we have to get it right.”

Starmer attempted to utilize this praise to subtly guide Trump toward the European perspective, a strategy that sometimes prevents escalation but rarely alters his stance.

“There’s a famous slogan in the United Kingdom from after the second World War, that is, that we have to win the peace,” Starmer stated. “And that is what we must do now because it can’t be peace that rewards the aggressor or that encourages regimes like Iran. We agree history must be on the side of the peacemaker, not the invader.”

Despite the impending minerals pact between Trump and Zelenskyy, an immediate end to the ongoing three-year conflict appears unlikely. Russia continues to assault Ukraine’s capital, with Kremlin Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov this week dismissing any ceasefire that would involve EU peacekeepers or require Russia to freeze hostilities along current battle lines.

As the fighting continues and uncertainty looms over the conflict’s conclusion, the U.S. and its primary allies find themselves in a diplomatic Catch-22 regarding future commitments. The U.S. seeks more clarity regarding Europe’s willingness to support Ukraine militarily before it commits to further action. Meanwhile, divided Europe is eager to ensure that any peacekeeping missions receive backing from American military strength.

“I don’t like talking about phase two until I get phase one,” Trump said during the press conference. “Phase one is I have to make peace and we have to get Russia to agree. We have to get Ukraine to agree. And I think we will.”

Trump praised Starmer’s recently unveiled plan to raise Britain’s defense spending to 2.5 percent of GDP, encouraging the U.K. and other NATO countries to continue along that path.

“The disaster in Ukraine shows exactly why it’s so important for the United Kingdom and other NATO partners to make large investments in their defense capabilities,” Trump asserted. “In many cases, 4 percent or 5 percent of GDP would be appropriate.”

While Trump continues to exclude the possibility of American troops being deployed in Ukraine, Starmer made it clear that this is not the type of support Europeans are seeking.

According to British officials, Starmer intended to request U.S. aerial intelligence surveillance and the provision of air cover as a last resort if another Russian offensive occurs in Ukraine.

European leaders are primarily asking Trump to refrain from destabilizing the current balance: to maintain commitment to NATO and Article V of its charter, ensuring that an attack on any member is treated as an attack on all; to preserve Ukraine’s access to Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite imaging service; and to remain engaged with traditional allies despite a notable tendency toward unilateral diplomatic engagement with Putin.

Trump appears unlikely to grant any substantial promises. However, he did take the opportunity to express his own personal tribute to the country that once prided itself on its special relationship with the U.S.

As he opened the joint press conference with Starmer, he proudly announced that he had returned a bust of Winston Churchill “to its rightful place” in the Oval Office.

Alejandro Jose Martinez for TROIB News