Trump is Expected to Exceed His Limits: Strategies to Prepare.
Having experienced the emergence of authoritarianism in Turkey, I’ve gained valuable insights. Here’s what I learned.
TroibNews 
American democracy is about to face a significant stress test. Having experienced the gradual erosion of democratic norms while working as a journalist in Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Turkey, I can relate to these challenges.
During my decade as a prominent journalist, I reported on Turkey’s slide into illiberalism, constantly navigating the tense relationship between the government and the media. I understand how self-censorship begins subtly but becomes a daily reality. I am well-acquainted with the efforts to reshape media, state institutions, and the judiciary.
Drawing from my experiences and reflections, I believe there are strategies that can assist Democrats and Trump critics not just to endure the upcoming four years but to emerge stronger. Here are six recommendations:
1. **Don’t Panic — Autocracy Takes Time**
President-elect Donald Trump’s resurgence is unsettling, but, as I've pointed out before, America isn't poised to become a dictatorship overnight—or even in four years. Even the most determined autocrats face obstacles, including bureaucracies, media, and judicial systems. Erdoğan took more than a decade to fully consolidate his power, while Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Poland’s Law and Justice Party also required years to undermine democratic norms and entrench their influence over state institutions.
While the U.S. isn't immune to these trends, its decentralized governance structure—a network of state and local governments—provides significant resilience. Federal judges serve lifetime terms, states and governors possess distinct powers separate from federal authority, local legislatures exist, and the First Amendment protects the press—this has been reinforced by over a century of legal rulings. Of course, there are risks, such as a Supreme Court that may grant significant deference to the president. However, Trump effectively has only two years to attempt any significant state capture. Legal challenges, congressional opposition, market dynamics, the 2026 midterm elections, and dissent within the Republican Party will slow his efforts. Ultimately, the decentralized nature of U.S. governance makes a complete takeover unlikely; the "Orbanization" of America is not an imminent danger.
2. **Don’t Disengage — Stay Connected**
After a surprising electoral defeat, the instinct to retreat from the news, social media, and civic engagement is common. I’ve witnessed this among friends in Turkey and Hungary, where supporters of the opposition withdrew in disappointment following Erdoğan or Orbán's electoral wins. It’s understandable to want to turn inward during such times.
While leisure activities like dancing, travel, or meditation can be beneficial, it is essential for opponents of autocracy to eventually re-engage in the struggle for democracy. This was evident when millions of Turks participated in elections earlier this year, leading to a historic victory for the opposition in local governments. Similarly, the Poles successfully united to vote out the conservative Law and Justice Party last year. The same can happen in the U.S.
The response to political defeat should not be withdrawal but rather organizing. Taking a break to process emotions is acceptable, but in the long run, greater engagement fosters emotional resilience.
3. **Don’t Fear the Infighting**
Trump's victory has understandably sparked discord within the Democratic Party, and while it seems contentious, this infighting is necessary for progress. In Turkey, Hungary, and Poland, opposition parties could only mount effective resistances after confronting their strategic and ideological disconnect with society.
Trump has tapped into the sentiment that the economic system, labor relations, and other societal structures are failing. While his hypocrisy is evident, he has successfully presented himself as an agent of change, representing the interests of a significant portion of the American populace over the so-called “Democratic elites.” This is akin to what strongmen like Erdoğan and Orbán have done.
For the Democratic Party to reshape its image into a genuine force for change rather than merely a defender of stale norms, it must fundamentally adjust its relationship with working-class Americans before the midterms in 2026.
4. **Charismatic Leadership Is a Non-Negotiable**
A clear lesson from Turkey and Hungary is that without a compelling leader, electoral defeat is likely, as seen in Turkey’s 2023 general elections and Hungary’s 2022 elections. While coalition-building and effective economic messaging are essential, they are insufficient. Charisma is crucial for mobilizing social dissent.
Trump was vulnerable in this election, but a more engaging candidate could have made a difference, as Nancy Pelosi has suggested. The Democratic Party's major misstep was sidelining President Biden without a primary process, opting instead to handpick a candidate. Future success hinges on selecting a leader who can resonate with the electorate's aspirations. Given the U.S. population of 350 million, this should be feasible.
Recent elections in Poland and Turkey illustrate how populist incumbents can be defeated by an opposition united behind charismatic candidates who deeply connect with voters. Authenticity and personal engagement are key.
5. **Skip the Protests and Identity Politics**
In the wake of Trump’s return, opponents will undoubtedly begin to organize an opposition campaign—but their methods are crucial. For a considerable time, Turkey’s opposition relied excessively on street protests and an emphasis on secularism—an identity political approach that resonated primarily with urban professionals and the middle class. Erdoğan’s waning power in 2024 was largely the result of economic mismanagement and the opposition’s growing competence in that area.
Trump’s appeal cuts across traditional divisions of race, gender, and class. He has forged a new coalition within the Republican Party, and Democrats should similarly broaden their base, even if it means appealing to some conservative viewpoints. Opposition strategies over the next four years need to be inclusive and strategic. While protests can inspire, they may alienate conservatives and suburban voters. Any grassroots initiatives should be accompanied by clear economic messaging and highlight the leadership abilities of Democratic governors and mayors. Relying solely on identity politics will not suffice.
6. **Have Hope**
No situation is permanent, and the U.S. is not alone in facing threats to democracy—Americans share common ground with people in France, Turkey, or Hungary regarding the allure of far-right ideologies. However, the U.S. benefits from a strong, decentralized government and a longstanding commitment to free speech, which should help the rule of law remain more robust than in many parts of the world.
Trump's return certainly presents challenges to American democracy. Nevertheless, he is likely to make mistakes and overstep his bounds both domestically and internationally. The U.S. can weather the next four years if Democrats rally together and learn from the successful strategies of global opponents of autocracy.
Navid Kalantari for TROIB News
During my decade as a prominent journalist, I reported on Turkey’s slide into illiberalism, constantly navigating the tense relationship between the government and the media. I understand how self-censorship begins subtly but becomes a daily reality. I am well-acquainted with the efforts to reshape media, state institutions, and the judiciary.
Drawing from my experiences and reflections, I believe there are strategies that can assist Democrats and Trump critics not just to endure the upcoming four years but to emerge stronger. Here are six recommendations:
1. **Don’t Panic — Autocracy Takes Time**
President-elect Donald Trump’s resurgence is unsettling, but, as I've pointed out before, America isn't poised to become a dictatorship overnight—or even in four years. Even the most determined autocrats face obstacles, including bureaucracies, media, and judicial systems. Erdoğan took more than a decade to fully consolidate his power, while Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Poland’s Law and Justice Party also required years to undermine democratic norms and entrench their influence over state institutions.
While the U.S. isn't immune to these trends, its decentralized governance structure—a network of state and local governments—provides significant resilience. Federal judges serve lifetime terms, states and governors possess distinct powers separate from federal authority, local legislatures exist, and the First Amendment protects the press—this has been reinforced by over a century of legal rulings. Of course, there are risks, such as a Supreme Court that may grant significant deference to the president. However, Trump effectively has only two years to attempt any significant state capture. Legal challenges, congressional opposition, market dynamics, the 2026 midterm elections, and dissent within the Republican Party will slow his efforts. Ultimately, the decentralized nature of U.S. governance makes a complete takeover unlikely; the "Orbanization" of America is not an imminent danger.
2. **Don’t Disengage — Stay Connected**
After a surprising electoral defeat, the instinct to retreat from the news, social media, and civic engagement is common. I’ve witnessed this among friends in Turkey and Hungary, where supporters of the opposition withdrew in disappointment following Erdoğan or Orbán's electoral wins. It’s understandable to want to turn inward during such times.
While leisure activities like dancing, travel, or meditation can be beneficial, it is essential for opponents of autocracy to eventually re-engage in the struggle for democracy. This was evident when millions of Turks participated in elections earlier this year, leading to a historic victory for the opposition in local governments. Similarly, the Poles successfully united to vote out the conservative Law and Justice Party last year. The same can happen in the U.S.
The response to political defeat should not be withdrawal but rather organizing. Taking a break to process emotions is acceptable, but in the long run, greater engagement fosters emotional resilience.
3. **Don’t Fear the Infighting**
Trump's victory has understandably sparked discord within the Democratic Party, and while it seems contentious, this infighting is necessary for progress. In Turkey, Hungary, and Poland, opposition parties could only mount effective resistances after confronting their strategic and ideological disconnect with society.
Trump has tapped into the sentiment that the economic system, labor relations, and other societal structures are failing. While his hypocrisy is evident, he has successfully presented himself as an agent of change, representing the interests of a significant portion of the American populace over the so-called “Democratic elites.” This is akin to what strongmen like Erdoğan and Orbán have done.
For the Democratic Party to reshape its image into a genuine force for change rather than merely a defender of stale norms, it must fundamentally adjust its relationship with working-class Americans before the midterms in 2026.
4. **Charismatic Leadership Is a Non-Negotiable**
A clear lesson from Turkey and Hungary is that without a compelling leader, electoral defeat is likely, as seen in Turkey’s 2023 general elections and Hungary’s 2022 elections. While coalition-building and effective economic messaging are essential, they are insufficient. Charisma is crucial for mobilizing social dissent.
Trump was vulnerable in this election, but a more engaging candidate could have made a difference, as Nancy Pelosi has suggested. The Democratic Party's major misstep was sidelining President Biden without a primary process, opting instead to handpick a candidate. Future success hinges on selecting a leader who can resonate with the electorate's aspirations. Given the U.S. population of 350 million, this should be feasible.
Recent elections in Poland and Turkey illustrate how populist incumbents can be defeated by an opposition united behind charismatic candidates who deeply connect with voters. Authenticity and personal engagement are key.
5. **Skip the Protests and Identity Politics**
In the wake of Trump’s return, opponents will undoubtedly begin to organize an opposition campaign—but their methods are crucial. For a considerable time, Turkey’s opposition relied excessively on street protests and an emphasis on secularism—an identity political approach that resonated primarily with urban professionals and the middle class. Erdoğan’s waning power in 2024 was largely the result of economic mismanagement and the opposition’s growing competence in that area.
Trump’s appeal cuts across traditional divisions of race, gender, and class. He has forged a new coalition within the Republican Party, and Democrats should similarly broaden their base, even if it means appealing to some conservative viewpoints. Opposition strategies over the next four years need to be inclusive and strategic. While protests can inspire, they may alienate conservatives and suburban voters. Any grassroots initiatives should be accompanied by clear economic messaging and highlight the leadership abilities of Democratic governors and mayors. Relying solely on identity politics will not suffice.
6. **Have Hope**
No situation is permanent, and the U.S. is not alone in facing threats to democracy—Americans share common ground with people in France, Turkey, or Hungary regarding the allure of far-right ideologies. However, the U.S. benefits from a strong, decentralized government and a longstanding commitment to free speech, which should help the rule of law remain more robust than in many parts of the world.
Trump's return certainly presents challenges to American democracy. Nevertheless, he is likely to make mistakes and overstep his bounds both domestically and internationally. The U.S. can weather the next four years if Democrats rally together and learn from the successful strategies of global opponents of autocracy.
Navid Kalantari for TROIB News
