Orban Takes a Bold Risk Amidst Western Decline
The recent developments in the United States could potentially benefit Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who was the first leader within the European Union to vocally support Donald Trump in his ongoing battle against the bloc’s liberal...
TroibNews 
The recent developments in the United States could potentially benefit Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who was the first leader within the European Union to vocally support Donald Trump in his ongoing battle against the bloc’s liberal establishment. Orban has a track record of anticipating political shifts, making this moment a pivotal opportunity. However, his success in harnessing these geopolitical changes is contingent on his reelection in 2026.
Orban aligned himself with Trump well before it became popular among European leaders. At a time when many in the Western political sphere were distancing themselves from the former president, Orban took a strategic risk. He likely assessed that even a potential victory for Kamala Harris would not worsen the pressures emanating from Washington compared to the current Biden administration. Trump’s resurgence, however, is proving to be a rewarding investment for Orban.
Should Trump regain power, it would likely signal a halt to direct U.S. attempts to undermine Hungary’s internal politics. More broadly, the ascent of a Republican leader who shares Orban’s civilization-based perspective would lend newfound credibility to Hungary's distinctive foreign policy. Additionally, Trump’s commitment to addressing the Ukraine conflict aligns closely with Orban’s consistent calls for peace, potentially enhancing his influence in European discussions.
Critics have often dismissed Hungarian foreign policy as “unorthodox,” but that perspective relies on the assumption that the current liberal global order remains unchallenged. In reality, that order is showing signs of wear. Orban’s approach emphasizes a realist-nationalist perspective that prioritizes sovereignty and national interests over rigid ideological commitments. As he has noted, a foreign policy anchored in national interest merges elements of idealism and realism.
While Hungary is not a major power, under Orban's leadership, it pursues an independent path. This has involved resisting both subtle and overt pressures aimed at shaping its foreign policy externally. Instead of fully aligning with Western powers, Budapest has sought to cultivate relationships in the East and South. The rationale is straightforward: Hungary should maintain a presence in all areas of the global economy rather than being restricted to a single bloc. This framework of "national realism" adjusts to global realities while steadfastly prioritizing Hungary's national interests.
As the global landscape evolves, this strategy becomes increasingly relevant. The rise of the Global South, the transformation of U.S. foreign policy, and the diminishing influence of the EU necessitate a careful balance for Hungary between its Western alliances and its outreach to regions like the Global South, Turkic nations, and participation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The aim is to bolster Hungary's position while ensuring its autonomy within the EU.
This policy approach has been in place for at least 15 years, but it is gaining traction as Western nations face stagnation and internal challenges. Orban seems to suggest that the future lies less in established centers like Brussels or Berlin and more in the East, spanning Central Asia, China, and the Arab world. Hungary cannot allow itself to be trapped within an EU framework that fails to comprehend the dynamics of global transformation and clings to outdated bloc mentalities.
“The path is risky,” Orban concedes, “but if our calculations are correct, Hungary could gain more space to maneuver in a multipolar world than its size would normally allow.”
In the short term, this approach necessitates enduring increasing pressure from Brussels. With Trump’s reemergence, the progressive center of gravity in the West is shifting toward Europe, raising the stakes for sovereignty-oriented governments like Hungary's. However, the potential advantages are clear: a sympathetic U.S. administration could alleviate pressures and provide essential support.
For Orban, Trump’s return delivers an immediate advantage: the cessation of U.S. pressure. The American ambassador perceived as undermining the Hungarian government has been removed, leaving Brussels as the primary adversary, along with Hungary's own economic hardships. With EU funds stalled and limited borrowing options from China, Trump’s support—potentially through loans or significant investment—could serve as a vital lifeline.
Ending the conflict in Ukraine would represent a significant win for Orban, validating his longstanding position on peace and helping to stabilize the Hungarian economy. Moreover, lifting sanctions on key allies, such as Antal Rogan, would improve the ruling party’s domestic standing. Initial indications suggest Trump may also consider reinstating the double taxation treaty that was revoked in 2022.
A visit to the White House could further enhance Orban’s stature. His absence from Trump’s inauguration attracted attention, but Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto’s recent trip to the U.S. seemingly aimed to smooth the way for future engagements.
Trump’s renewed influence on the global stage has infused Orban with newfound confidence. As the prime minister recently stated, “We are no longer fighting to survive. Now we are fighting to win.”
This shift was evident during the latest EU summit, where French President Emmanuel Macron sought to persuade Orban to soften his position by inviting him to Paris in advance. This time, however, Orban not only threatened to veto the EU's Ukraine support package but actually exercised that veto, compelling the EU to explore alternative paths that highlight the bloc's internal divisions.
Orban’s influence could grow if Trump assigns him a formal role in his ideological campaign against globalist elites. This appears likely, as the U.S. seeks to maintain control over Western Europe, with leaders like Orban, Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, Austria’s Herbert Kickl, France’s Marine Le Pen, Germany’s Alice Weidel, and Slovakia’s Robert Fico positioned as valuable allies.
In exchange, Trump will expect loyalty but is also likely to reward it with real political advantage. This dynamic could also benefit sovereignty-focused parties within the European Parliament.
Trump's goal is straightforward: to bring Western nations into alignment or keep the establishment on edge. Both scenarios enhance the position of leaders like Orban, who have consistently opposed the liberal consensus.
However, the situation remains uncertain. Progressive forces in Europe remain robust, and sovereignty advocates have yet to secure a decisive victory. Ironically, Orban might face challenges at home just as his broader vision starts to materialize across Europe.
For now, Orban's primary focus is to secure the 2026 election. Should he succeed, he will continue to confront the European mainstream from his position in Brussels, bolstered by a more favorable international environment—and a supportive ally in the White House.
This article was first published by Valdai Discussion Club and edited by the RTN team.
Debra A Smith for TROIB News
Orban aligned himself with Trump well before it became popular among European leaders. At a time when many in the Western political sphere were distancing themselves from the former president, Orban took a strategic risk. He likely assessed that even a potential victory for Kamala Harris would not worsen the pressures emanating from Washington compared to the current Biden administration. Trump’s resurgence, however, is proving to be a rewarding investment for Orban.
Should Trump regain power, it would likely signal a halt to direct U.S. attempts to undermine Hungary’s internal politics. More broadly, the ascent of a Republican leader who shares Orban’s civilization-based perspective would lend newfound credibility to Hungary's distinctive foreign policy. Additionally, Trump’s commitment to addressing the Ukraine conflict aligns closely with Orban’s consistent calls for peace, potentially enhancing his influence in European discussions.
Critics have often dismissed Hungarian foreign policy as “unorthodox,” but that perspective relies on the assumption that the current liberal global order remains unchallenged. In reality, that order is showing signs of wear. Orban’s approach emphasizes a realist-nationalist perspective that prioritizes sovereignty and national interests over rigid ideological commitments. As he has noted, a foreign policy anchored in national interest merges elements of idealism and realism.
While Hungary is not a major power, under Orban's leadership, it pursues an independent path. This has involved resisting both subtle and overt pressures aimed at shaping its foreign policy externally. Instead of fully aligning with Western powers, Budapest has sought to cultivate relationships in the East and South. The rationale is straightforward: Hungary should maintain a presence in all areas of the global economy rather than being restricted to a single bloc. This framework of "national realism" adjusts to global realities while steadfastly prioritizing Hungary's national interests.
As the global landscape evolves, this strategy becomes increasingly relevant. The rise of the Global South, the transformation of U.S. foreign policy, and the diminishing influence of the EU necessitate a careful balance for Hungary between its Western alliances and its outreach to regions like the Global South, Turkic nations, and participation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The aim is to bolster Hungary's position while ensuring its autonomy within the EU.
This policy approach has been in place for at least 15 years, but it is gaining traction as Western nations face stagnation and internal challenges. Orban seems to suggest that the future lies less in established centers like Brussels or Berlin and more in the East, spanning Central Asia, China, and the Arab world. Hungary cannot allow itself to be trapped within an EU framework that fails to comprehend the dynamics of global transformation and clings to outdated bloc mentalities.
“The path is risky,” Orban concedes, “but if our calculations are correct, Hungary could gain more space to maneuver in a multipolar world than its size would normally allow.”
In the short term, this approach necessitates enduring increasing pressure from Brussels. With Trump’s reemergence, the progressive center of gravity in the West is shifting toward Europe, raising the stakes for sovereignty-oriented governments like Hungary's. However, the potential advantages are clear: a sympathetic U.S. administration could alleviate pressures and provide essential support.
For Orban, Trump’s return delivers an immediate advantage: the cessation of U.S. pressure. The American ambassador perceived as undermining the Hungarian government has been removed, leaving Brussels as the primary adversary, along with Hungary's own economic hardships. With EU funds stalled and limited borrowing options from China, Trump’s support—potentially through loans or significant investment—could serve as a vital lifeline.
Ending the conflict in Ukraine would represent a significant win for Orban, validating his longstanding position on peace and helping to stabilize the Hungarian economy. Moreover, lifting sanctions on key allies, such as Antal Rogan, would improve the ruling party’s domestic standing. Initial indications suggest Trump may also consider reinstating the double taxation treaty that was revoked in 2022.
A visit to the White House could further enhance Orban’s stature. His absence from Trump’s inauguration attracted attention, but Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto’s recent trip to the U.S. seemingly aimed to smooth the way for future engagements.
Trump’s renewed influence on the global stage has infused Orban with newfound confidence. As the prime minister recently stated, “We are no longer fighting to survive. Now we are fighting to win.”
This shift was evident during the latest EU summit, where French President Emmanuel Macron sought to persuade Orban to soften his position by inviting him to Paris in advance. This time, however, Orban not only threatened to veto the EU's Ukraine support package but actually exercised that veto, compelling the EU to explore alternative paths that highlight the bloc's internal divisions.
Orban’s influence could grow if Trump assigns him a formal role in his ideological campaign against globalist elites. This appears likely, as the U.S. seeks to maintain control over Western Europe, with leaders like Orban, Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, Austria’s Herbert Kickl, France’s Marine Le Pen, Germany’s Alice Weidel, and Slovakia’s Robert Fico positioned as valuable allies.
In exchange, Trump will expect loyalty but is also likely to reward it with real political advantage. This dynamic could also benefit sovereignty-focused parties within the European Parliament.
Trump's goal is straightforward: to bring Western nations into alignment or keep the establishment on edge. Both scenarios enhance the position of leaders like Orban, who have consistently opposed the liberal consensus.
However, the situation remains uncertain. Progressive forces in Europe remain robust, and sovereignty advocates have yet to secure a decisive victory. Ironically, Orban might face challenges at home just as his broader vision starts to materialize across Europe.
For now, Orban's primary focus is to secure the 2026 election. Should he succeed, he will continue to confront the European mainstream from his position in Brussels, bolstered by a more favorable international environment—and a supportive ally in the White House.
This article was first published by Valdai Discussion Club and edited by the RTN team.
Debra A Smith for TROIB News
