Is Trump the Modern-Day Reagan?
A decisive victory provides the president-elect with enhanced strength and credibility internationally that he did not possess eight years prior.
TroibNews 
Eight years ago, during a post-election breakfast event at PMG’s Brussels offices, I witnessed Donald Trump declare victory in a presidential election for the first time alongside astonished European legislators and policymakers.
The atmosphere in global capitals this Wednesday morning was strikingly different. While anxiety was prevalent in many regions, a sense of jubilation was present in others. However, shock was absent. The world has had time to adjust to Trump’s presidency, and those same attendees from the 2016 Brussels gathering had been preparing for a potential return of his leadership.
Another noteworthy change lies in America's perceived vulnerabilities. Historically viewed as weakened by “polarized” and “dysfunctional” politics, those descriptors have not been heard since Trump's early election result. His victory—achieved with decisive wins in swing states, a favorable popular vote, and a likely majority in both houses of Congress—undermines the narrative that America’s internal discord jeopardizes its global standing despite its substantial advantages.
This election marks a clear shift. Trump is expected to lead a cohesive party, unlike the fragmented situation after 2016, and likely a cohesive government as well. Such unification is not indicative of dysfunction or debilitating polarization at this moment. Trump has a mandate. He won't be mired in legal disputes over election legitimacy like he was during the Russia investigation. While he carries significant baggage, including legal challenges and lengthy habits, Trump emerges as a more formidable figure than he was in 2016, a time when he faced distrust from Republican elites and disdain from Democrats for winning the presidency despite losing the popular vote by three million.
This resurgence offers Trump credibility and autonomy on the world stage that he lacked in 2017. Yet, it does not necessarily mean he will embrace a more "presidential" demeanor by conventional standards. “Unpredictable,” was the term used by Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk to describe Trump this week. It does not ensure that the U.S. will be stronger; his tendencies toward isolationism, affection for Vladimir Putin, and protectionist trade policies all signal potential risks from his lengthy public career.
Trump now possesses the capacity to influence global affairs in a way he could not previously. This prospect can be seen as terrifying or exciting, depending on whether he opts to engage internationally or retreat domestically. “Gloom and despair,” describes the prevailing sentiment in much of Europe, according to former Swedish Prime Minister and European establishment figure Carl Bildt. Meanwhile, British economic historian and columnist Niall Ferguson perceives potential for Trump to be a significant global force, observing a "line of continuity" from Reagan to Trump capable of leading the free world to triumph in “Cold War II.”
The geopolitical landscape Trump faces is more complex and perilous than the one he left in 2021. In this new Cold War, the U.S. is up against an empowered alliance of authoritarian powers led by China, alongside Russia, Iran, and North Korea—all of whom convened last month in Kazan, Russia, in a summit that showcased a world opposed to U.S. influence.
American allies in Asia and Europe are waiting for leadership from Washington. Will Trump 47 meet their expectations? This hinges on whether “Make America Great Again” aligns more with “America First” or “Peace Through Strength.” The choice is his to make.
Three early tests will reveal much: the appointments he makes to key positions, his approach to Ukraine, and his stance on global trade.
Trump’s options for his administration are varied. Individuals such as former NSC adviser Robert O’Brien and Florida Senator Marco Rubio favor a more engaged American foreign policy. Brian Hook, who is set to manage the transition at the State Department, belongs to this group. Conversely, Ric Grenell, the former ambassador to Germany and a likely candidate for a major role, is known for his bombastic approach, closely following Trump’s lead. Meanwhile, Vice President-elect JD Vance represents the isolationist faction. A number of less scrupulous figures could also dominate his administration. “If Trump brings in Johnny McEntee or Kash Patel,” remarked a Trump-friendly ambassador, “we’re all screwed.”
Ukraine will serve as the litmus test for U.S. military and diplomatic clout, especially in Europe. Surprisingly, during my visit to Asia earlier this fall, Ukraine was a top concern there as well. Observers in Asia view America’s actions in Ukraine as indicative of its resolve to deter China in East and Southeast Asia, while Europeans are anxious to see how steadfast the U.S. will remain in supporting NATO and countering Russian threats. Both regions seek clarity on U.S. intentions. During the campaign, Trump publicly placed blame on Volodymyr Zelenskyy for instigating the war and hesitated to express support for Ukraine’s victory. He claims he wants to resolve the conflict swiftly; let’s hope he refrains from a quick fix. Any concession that favors Putin ultimately weakens both Europe and the U.S., a scenario that is not conducive to national strength or global prominence.
References to Reagan were unmistakable from leaders hoping he adopts the former president's approach. Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy astutely incorporated “peace through strength” in his congratulatory tweet to Trump. Mike Johnson, the House speaker who approved the $60 billion aid package for Ukraine this spring, echoed that phrase on stage at Mar-a-Lago on Tuesday night. NATO’s new leader, Mark Rutte, lauded Trump’s “strong” leadership during his previous term. Even Vladimir Putin chimed in, complimenting Trump for demonstrating “bravery as a man” following a close brush with an assassin’s bullet.
Lastly, trade will test America’s role in the global economy. Trump has not traditionally been the paragon of free trade; he amplified his commitments to imposing “beautiful” tariffs. However, as a real estate mogul, he might be inclined to market a $1 million property by initially listing it for $10 million. Will he risk triggering a global recession and fuelling inflation through these tariffs? Alternatively, during his first term, he postured aggressively but ultimately renegotiated the North American trade agreement. Both Trump and Harris seemed opposed to sweeping new trade deals. There exists a version of Trump who could safeguard the American and global economies while simultaneously tightening economic ties with China through trade limitations.
In the coming months, Trump will engage with the world from a position of strength. The most improbable scenario would be for Trump and America to retreat from the global stage. If there’s one thing we know about him, it’s that he thrives on being in the spotlight.
Alejandro Jose Martinez for TROIB News
The atmosphere in global capitals this Wednesday morning was strikingly different. While anxiety was prevalent in many regions, a sense of jubilation was present in others. However, shock was absent. The world has had time to adjust to Trump’s presidency, and those same attendees from the 2016 Brussels gathering had been preparing for a potential return of his leadership.
Another noteworthy change lies in America's perceived vulnerabilities. Historically viewed as weakened by “polarized” and “dysfunctional” politics, those descriptors have not been heard since Trump's early election result. His victory—achieved with decisive wins in swing states, a favorable popular vote, and a likely majority in both houses of Congress—undermines the narrative that America’s internal discord jeopardizes its global standing despite its substantial advantages.
This election marks a clear shift. Trump is expected to lead a cohesive party, unlike the fragmented situation after 2016, and likely a cohesive government as well. Such unification is not indicative of dysfunction or debilitating polarization at this moment. Trump has a mandate. He won't be mired in legal disputes over election legitimacy like he was during the Russia investigation. While he carries significant baggage, including legal challenges and lengthy habits, Trump emerges as a more formidable figure than he was in 2016, a time when he faced distrust from Republican elites and disdain from Democrats for winning the presidency despite losing the popular vote by three million.
This resurgence offers Trump credibility and autonomy on the world stage that he lacked in 2017. Yet, it does not necessarily mean he will embrace a more "presidential" demeanor by conventional standards. “Unpredictable,” was the term used by Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk to describe Trump this week. It does not ensure that the U.S. will be stronger; his tendencies toward isolationism, affection for Vladimir Putin, and protectionist trade policies all signal potential risks from his lengthy public career.
Trump now possesses the capacity to influence global affairs in a way he could not previously. This prospect can be seen as terrifying or exciting, depending on whether he opts to engage internationally or retreat domestically. “Gloom and despair,” describes the prevailing sentiment in much of Europe, according to former Swedish Prime Minister and European establishment figure Carl Bildt. Meanwhile, British economic historian and columnist Niall Ferguson perceives potential for Trump to be a significant global force, observing a "line of continuity" from Reagan to Trump capable of leading the free world to triumph in “Cold War II.”
The geopolitical landscape Trump faces is more complex and perilous than the one he left in 2021. In this new Cold War, the U.S. is up against an empowered alliance of authoritarian powers led by China, alongside Russia, Iran, and North Korea—all of whom convened last month in Kazan, Russia, in a summit that showcased a world opposed to U.S. influence.
American allies in Asia and Europe are waiting for leadership from Washington. Will Trump 47 meet their expectations? This hinges on whether “Make America Great Again” aligns more with “America First” or “Peace Through Strength.” The choice is his to make.
Three early tests will reveal much: the appointments he makes to key positions, his approach to Ukraine, and his stance on global trade.
Trump’s options for his administration are varied. Individuals such as former NSC adviser Robert O’Brien and Florida Senator Marco Rubio favor a more engaged American foreign policy. Brian Hook, who is set to manage the transition at the State Department, belongs to this group. Conversely, Ric Grenell, the former ambassador to Germany and a likely candidate for a major role, is known for his bombastic approach, closely following Trump’s lead. Meanwhile, Vice President-elect JD Vance represents the isolationist faction. A number of less scrupulous figures could also dominate his administration. “If Trump brings in Johnny McEntee or Kash Patel,” remarked a Trump-friendly ambassador, “we’re all screwed.”
Ukraine will serve as the litmus test for U.S. military and diplomatic clout, especially in Europe. Surprisingly, during my visit to Asia earlier this fall, Ukraine was a top concern there as well. Observers in Asia view America’s actions in Ukraine as indicative of its resolve to deter China in East and Southeast Asia, while Europeans are anxious to see how steadfast the U.S. will remain in supporting NATO and countering Russian threats. Both regions seek clarity on U.S. intentions. During the campaign, Trump publicly placed blame on Volodymyr Zelenskyy for instigating the war and hesitated to express support for Ukraine’s victory. He claims he wants to resolve the conflict swiftly; let’s hope he refrains from a quick fix. Any concession that favors Putin ultimately weakens both Europe and the U.S., a scenario that is not conducive to national strength or global prominence.
References to Reagan were unmistakable from leaders hoping he adopts the former president's approach. Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy astutely incorporated “peace through strength” in his congratulatory tweet to Trump. Mike Johnson, the House speaker who approved the $60 billion aid package for Ukraine this spring, echoed that phrase on stage at Mar-a-Lago on Tuesday night. NATO’s new leader, Mark Rutte, lauded Trump’s “strong” leadership during his previous term. Even Vladimir Putin chimed in, complimenting Trump for demonstrating “bravery as a man” following a close brush with an assassin’s bullet.
Lastly, trade will test America’s role in the global economy. Trump has not traditionally been the paragon of free trade; he amplified his commitments to imposing “beautiful” tariffs. However, as a real estate mogul, he might be inclined to market a $1 million property by initially listing it for $10 million. Will he risk triggering a global recession and fuelling inflation through these tariffs? Alternatively, during his first term, he postured aggressively but ultimately renegotiated the North American trade agreement. Both Trump and Harris seemed opposed to sweeping new trade deals. There exists a version of Trump who could safeguard the American and global economies while simultaneously tightening economic ties with China through trade limitations.
In the coming months, Trump will engage with the world from a position of strength. The most improbable scenario would be for Trump and America to retreat from the global stage. If there’s one thing we know about him, it’s that he thrives on being in the spotlight.
Alejandro Jose Martinez for TROIB News
