Internal surveys indicate Fetterman's backing among Democrats is plummeting in his own area

The survey reveals a possible "freak-out moment" for the Pennsylvania senator, who has centered his identity around Pittsburgh—his home region.

Internal surveys indicate Fetterman's backing among Democrats is plummeting in his own area
John Fetterman's standing among Democratic voters in his home state appears to be faltering, based on an internal poll obtained by PMG. This survey serves as one of the first significant indicators that the Pennsylvania senator is losing support from the very constituents who elected him.

As discussions intensify among Pennsylvania Democrats about the possibility of a primary challenge against Fetterman in 2028, the importance of this poll will likely grow.

Living just outside Pittsburgh, Fetterman is perceived unfavorably by nearly half of likely Democratic voters in the city. The poll reveals that 49 percent of respondents hold an unfavorable view of him, while 46 percent view him favorably. In contrast, 82 percent of respondents favor Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro, with only 13 percent expressing an unfavorable opinion.

Conducted by a Democratic firm as part of a survey on the upcoming mayoral primary election in Pittsburgh, this poll was completed before New York magazine published an article detailing staff concerns regarding Fetterman’s mental and physical health.

While this poll is just one data point and contradicts recent public surveys, it has surprised several Democrats in the state.

“In Pittsburgh, this is a break-glass, freak-out moment for Fetterman,” noted a Democratic strategist in Pittsburgh, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The findings indicate a significant vulnerability for Fetterman, who has built his political persona around his deep ties to the region. During his 2022 Senate campaign, his team distributed yellow, Fetterman-branded towels inspired by the Pittsburgh Steelers' “Terrible Towel.” He regularly refers to Pittsburgh natives as “yinzers” and expresses his affinity for the convenience store chain Sheetz.

In the 2022 Senate primary, Fetterman achieved a decisive victory in Allegheny County, home to Pittsburgh, winning by 25 percentage points over his opponents, former Rep. Conor Lamb and state lawmaker Malcolm Kenyatta.

The internal poll, which involved 500 likely Democratic primary voters in Pittsburgh and took place between February 6 and February 11, was conducted through a combination of phone surveys and text-to-online responses.

These results starkly contrast with recent public polling, which has shown that Pennsylvania Democratic voters generally continue to support Fetterman, even amid criticism from some left-leaning individuals regarding his stance on Israel and his meetings with Donald Trump.

Recent polling data from Morning Consult indicates that Fetterman's popularity may be improving in Pennsylvania, as he has garnered increased support among Republican voters while maintaining steady backing from Democrats. However, national polls paint a different picture, indicating a decline in his appeal among national Democrats and independents, while he performs better with Republicans.

Some Democratic strategists in Pennsylvania have suggested that Fetterman’s changing approach to Trump might alienate him from Democratic voters more than his firm stance on Israel. Fetterman has supported a number of Trump’s key appointments, including Attorney General Pam Bondi, and stated in January that he was visiting Trump at Mar-a-Lago because he believes in engaging with anyone who can help him deliver for Pennsylvania and the nation.

The internal survey highlights a particular decline in Fetterman’s support among progressives in Pittsburgh, with 74 percent of self-identified progressive Democrats rating him unfavorably, while only 22 percent provided favorable evaluations. His approval rating stood at 52 percent favorable to 47 percent unfavorable among liberal Democrats and at 65 percent favorable to 27 percent unfavorable among moderate and conservative Democrats.

As concerns regarding Fetterman's health mount, some state Democrats are examining the rules related to him stepping down and discussing potential successors. Fetterman has firmly denied any claims of being unfit for office, described the New York article as "a one-source hit piece," and has reiterated his commitment to serve out his term, which concludes in 2029.

Sanya Singh for TROIB News