Is Hakeem Jeffries on Track to Be America's First Black House Speaker? The Decision Rests with New York.
The outcomes will show if Democrats have reflected on their 2022 missteps and are able to reclaim lost territory.
TroibNews 
NEW YORK — The stakes are high for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Governor Kathy Hochul as New York voters head to the polls on Tuesday. Their last performance in House races two years ago saw dismal results, and they are eager to redeem themselves this time around.
In the final days of campaigning, the prominent Democrats traversed the state, from Long Island to the Hudson Valley, energizing candidates, voters, and unions. They held high-energy rallies, showcasing unity as they aim to unseat five Republican incumbents and elevate Jeffries to House Speaker. Over the weekend, he also visited Syracuse to support John Mannion, the Democrats’ strongest candidate for flipping a seat nationally, while participating in campaigning efforts in other states as well.
This last-minute push underscores a bitter campaign season, highlighting New York's critical position as a battleground for House control, even as the state remains a solid blue in presidential elections.
For Hochul and Jeffries, the stakes couldn't be higher. Hochul recognizes that this election is an opportunity for retribution, following the Democrats’ House losses that allowed Republicans to seize control of the chamber two years ago. Another disappointing outcome would diminish her influence, while a successful election night would bolster her position against potential challengers for her 2026 election bid.
The outcome of New York races also significantly affects Jeffries' future. If the Democrats successfully retake the House, he stands to become its first Black speaker.
To address these high stakes, the Democrats have initiated a “coordinated campaign” this year, focusing on strengthening their ground game. “It’s personal. I’m harnessing the power of the party to help our candidates like it’s never been done before,” Hochul stated to PMG, recalling her past experiences when she sought assistance from the state party and was met with a firm “No.”
Hochul, who previously served in Congress from 2011 to 2013, has invested significant political capital and resources to assist Democrats in seven battleground districts, challenging seasoned GOP incumbents such as Mike Lawler and Marc Molinaro, who have crafted their images as political moderates through frequent cable news appearances.
Both parties recognize New York's pivotal role in the elections, leading to substantial financial investments in advertising. Both Jeffries and House Speaker Mike Johnson have been actively campaigning in the Empire State in the days leading up to Election Day.
Democrats have mobilized a coordinated campaign involving 100 staff members and 20,000 volunteers, having knocked on over a million doors by last weekend. Hochul asserts that this infrastructure will not only serve this election cycle but will be invaluable for future efforts as well. Moreover, the Battleground New York coalition, comprising various progressive groups and unions, has registered 25,000 voters in four congressional districts.
On the Republican side, an extensive outreach operation includes influential support from groups like the Nassau County GOP. House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik remains a vocal advocate for their candidates. The party feels optimistic due to strong GOP turnout during the early voting phase.
“Everywhere we’ve gone, our people are out. The enthusiasm is literally through the roof,” said Rep. Brandon Williams, representing Syracuse and currently the most vulnerable House incumbent in the country. He believes voters are rejecting liberal policies across the board, adding, “I just think it’s the mood of the country.”
New York Democrats are aiming to flip at least two first-term GOP seats as they pursue a net gain of four seats nationwide. Their deep investments reflect a desire to correct the losses experienced in 2022 when Republicans took four seats by narrow margins.
The key and most competitive races in New York include the central New York contest between Williams and Mannion, the rematch in western Long Island between Rep. Anthony D’Esposito and Laura Gillen, the contest in upstate New York involving Molinaro and Josh Riley, and the highly charged battle in the Hudson Valley between Lawler and Mondaire Jones. Other crucial races feature Rep. Pat Ryan against Alison Esposito and on Long Island, Rep. Nick LaLota versus John Avlon, as well as Rep. Tom Suozzi facing Mike LiPetri.
Candidates have engaged in heated debates, extensive ad campaigns, and fierce social media battles over various pressing issues, including border security, crime, abortion rights, the Israel-Hamas conflict, ballot referendum Proposition 1, and economic matters such as the CHIPS Act and the SALT deduction cap. They have also faced scrutiny over their affiliations with prominent political figures like Hochul, New York City Mayor Eric Adams, and Republican nominee Donald Trump.
Democrats have been working to downplay the disappointing House losses from 2022, with Hochul emphasizing her efforts and pointing out that California Democrats also faced challenges that year, a situation acknowledged by former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Rep. Adriano Espaillat, campaigning for Ryan and other Democratic contenders, is optimistic about the party’s prospects. “This is a different environment than last time around,” Espaillat told PMG. “New York is looking at this race from a national optic. And of course, we don’t share the values and the negative feelings of Donald Trump and his people — the majority of New Yorkers don’t — and they will demonstrate that at the polls.”
Trump's influence remains central to the Democrats’ campaign messaging.
“They’ve been very clear about what their intentions are in the House of Representatives if they hold the majority. They’ve been very clear about what they want to do with former President Donald Trump. Extreme MAGA Republicans want to take a blowtorch to Social Security,” Jeffries remarked during a weekend rally for Avlon on Long Island, emphasizing threats to Medicare and the Affordable Care Act.
Conversely, New York Republicans feel the need to distance themselves from some of their party's more controversial stances, insisting they would not support a nationwide abortion ban and do not seek to repeal programs that provide popular entitlements.
In turn, some Republicans have adapted their arguments, keeping Democrats defensive about the Biden-Harris administration's handling of migrant surges at the southern border.
“My opponent, Laura Gillen, supports amnesty for the individuals who have come across our southern border, wanting to give away social programs that you’ve paid into: Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare,” D’Esposito stated at a recent press conference.
Gillen counters by advocating for a bipartisan approach to secure the border, claiming D’Esposito and his Republican allies have failed to act on this issue due to their allegiance to Trump. Her strategy mirrors the successful tactics that led to Suozzi's election in February.
The D’Esposito-Gillen race epitomizes the larger struggle between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, with their respective candidates’ closing arguments reflecting the wider presidential election narrative.
D’Esposito, a former police officer, is appealing to his GOP base by attributing national issues, particularly illegal immigration, to Democrats’ failures. In contrast, Gillen, a former local official, is trying to attract voters from across party lines who desire to move beyond what critics describe as a divisive political era ushered in by Trump.
“People are sick of the fighting, they’re sick of the finger-pointing, they’re sick of the hyperpartisanship. They want to see elected officials behave in a responsible, civil way and actually start working to get things done for them,” Gillen shared with PMG. “Because while everybody in D.C. is fighting, nothing’s happening.”
Sanya Singh contributed to this report for TROIB News
In the final days of campaigning, the prominent Democrats traversed the state, from Long Island to the Hudson Valley, energizing candidates, voters, and unions. They held high-energy rallies, showcasing unity as they aim to unseat five Republican incumbents and elevate Jeffries to House Speaker. Over the weekend, he also visited Syracuse to support John Mannion, the Democrats’ strongest candidate for flipping a seat nationally, while participating in campaigning efforts in other states as well.
This last-minute push underscores a bitter campaign season, highlighting New York's critical position as a battleground for House control, even as the state remains a solid blue in presidential elections.
For Hochul and Jeffries, the stakes couldn't be higher. Hochul recognizes that this election is an opportunity for retribution, following the Democrats’ House losses that allowed Republicans to seize control of the chamber two years ago. Another disappointing outcome would diminish her influence, while a successful election night would bolster her position against potential challengers for her 2026 election bid.
The outcome of New York races also significantly affects Jeffries' future. If the Democrats successfully retake the House, he stands to become its first Black speaker.
To address these high stakes, the Democrats have initiated a “coordinated campaign” this year, focusing on strengthening their ground game. “It’s personal. I’m harnessing the power of the party to help our candidates like it’s never been done before,” Hochul stated to PMG, recalling her past experiences when she sought assistance from the state party and was met with a firm “No.”
Hochul, who previously served in Congress from 2011 to 2013, has invested significant political capital and resources to assist Democrats in seven battleground districts, challenging seasoned GOP incumbents such as Mike Lawler and Marc Molinaro, who have crafted their images as political moderates through frequent cable news appearances.
Both parties recognize New York's pivotal role in the elections, leading to substantial financial investments in advertising. Both Jeffries and House Speaker Mike Johnson have been actively campaigning in the Empire State in the days leading up to Election Day.
Democrats have mobilized a coordinated campaign involving 100 staff members and 20,000 volunteers, having knocked on over a million doors by last weekend. Hochul asserts that this infrastructure will not only serve this election cycle but will be invaluable for future efforts as well. Moreover, the Battleground New York coalition, comprising various progressive groups and unions, has registered 25,000 voters in four congressional districts.
On the Republican side, an extensive outreach operation includes influential support from groups like the Nassau County GOP. House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik remains a vocal advocate for their candidates. The party feels optimistic due to strong GOP turnout during the early voting phase.
“Everywhere we’ve gone, our people are out. The enthusiasm is literally through the roof,” said Rep. Brandon Williams, representing Syracuse and currently the most vulnerable House incumbent in the country. He believes voters are rejecting liberal policies across the board, adding, “I just think it’s the mood of the country.”
New York Democrats are aiming to flip at least two first-term GOP seats as they pursue a net gain of four seats nationwide. Their deep investments reflect a desire to correct the losses experienced in 2022 when Republicans took four seats by narrow margins.
The key and most competitive races in New York include the central New York contest between Williams and Mannion, the rematch in western Long Island between Rep. Anthony D’Esposito and Laura Gillen, the contest in upstate New York involving Molinaro and Josh Riley, and the highly charged battle in the Hudson Valley between Lawler and Mondaire Jones. Other crucial races feature Rep. Pat Ryan against Alison Esposito and on Long Island, Rep. Nick LaLota versus John Avlon, as well as Rep. Tom Suozzi facing Mike LiPetri.
Candidates have engaged in heated debates, extensive ad campaigns, and fierce social media battles over various pressing issues, including border security, crime, abortion rights, the Israel-Hamas conflict, ballot referendum Proposition 1, and economic matters such as the CHIPS Act and the SALT deduction cap. They have also faced scrutiny over their affiliations with prominent political figures like Hochul, New York City Mayor Eric Adams, and Republican nominee Donald Trump.
Democrats have been working to downplay the disappointing House losses from 2022, with Hochul emphasizing her efforts and pointing out that California Democrats also faced challenges that year, a situation acknowledged by former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Rep. Adriano Espaillat, campaigning for Ryan and other Democratic contenders, is optimistic about the party’s prospects. “This is a different environment than last time around,” Espaillat told PMG. “New York is looking at this race from a national optic. And of course, we don’t share the values and the negative feelings of Donald Trump and his people — the majority of New Yorkers don’t — and they will demonstrate that at the polls.”
Trump's influence remains central to the Democrats’ campaign messaging.
“They’ve been very clear about what their intentions are in the House of Representatives if they hold the majority. They’ve been very clear about what they want to do with former President Donald Trump. Extreme MAGA Republicans want to take a blowtorch to Social Security,” Jeffries remarked during a weekend rally for Avlon on Long Island, emphasizing threats to Medicare and the Affordable Care Act.
Conversely, New York Republicans feel the need to distance themselves from some of their party's more controversial stances, insisting they would not support a nationwide abortion ban and do not seek to repeal programs that provide popular entitlements.
In turn, some Republicans have adapted their arguments, keeping Democrats defensive about the Biden-Harris administration's handling of migrant surges at the southern border.
“My opponent, Laura Gillen, supports amnesty for the individuals who have come across our southern border, wanting to give away social programs that you’ve paid into: Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare,” D’Esposito stated at a recent press conference.
Gillen counters by advocating for a bipartisan approach to secure the border, claiming D’Esposito and his Republican allies have failed to act on this issue due to their allegiance to Trump. Her strategy mirrors the successful tactics that led to Suozzi's election in February.
The D’Esposito-Gillen race epitomizes the larger struggle between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, with their respective candidates’ closing arguments reflecting the wider presidential election narrative.
D’Esposito, a former police officer, is appealing to his GOP base by attributing national issues, particularly illegal immigration, to Democrats’ failures. In contrast, Gillen, a former local official, is trying to attract voters from across party lines who desire to move beyond what critics describe as a divisive political era ushered in by Trump.
“People are sick of the fighting, they’re sick of the finger-pointing, they’re sick of the hyperpartisanship. They want to see elected officials behave in a responsible, civil way and actually start working to get things done for them,” Gillen shared with PMG. “Because while everybody in D.C. is fighting, nothing’s happening.”
Sanya Singh contributed to this report for TROIB News
