Is It Possible for Biden and Xi to Make US-China Relations Crisis-Proof?
The meeting in Peru represents a pivotal opportunity for Biden and Xi to emphasize the importance of sustained high-level communication between the U.S. and China—conversations that may be uncertain under a potential Trump administration.
TroibNews 
LIMA, Peru — President Joe Biden faces a pivotal opportunity this weekend to stabilize the U.S.-China relationship before President-elect Donald Trump takes office and is anticipated to implement a stern reset on already strained ties between the two nations.
During his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit in Lima on Saturday, Biden is expected to aim at maintaining recently reestablished military communications to avoid misunderstandings that could lead to unintended conflicts between the two adversarial powers.
However, conveying a message of continuity from the U.S. may prove difficult for Biden, particularly after Trump's decisive victory, which included promises to impose stringent tariffs on China and his intention to nominate Sen. Marco Rubio, a vocal critic of Beijing, as his secretary of State.
Nevertheless, China might be inclined to take steps to solidify some modest gains achieved under Biden's administration over the past four years, particularly as Xi grapples with domestic economic challenges and seeks to enhance China’s negotiating position with the new U.S. administration.
“I wouldn’t be shocked if the Chinese are trying to get agreement on the principles that have guided the relationship the last four years,” observed Zack Cooper, a China expert with senior roles in the Defense Department and National Security Council during the Obama administration. “Maybe they want to be able to say going into the next administration that ‘over the last four years, we agreed on some principles, here’s what they are,’ and try to hold the next team to that.”
This could involve reaffirming the importance of U.S.-China communication tools for military, economic, and financial information-sharing, which may be jeopardized under the incoming Trump administration. Alternatively, the leaders might express mutual support for a framework on the development and deployment of artificial intelligence.
The Biden administration's reestablishment of communication channels between the U.S. and China is viewed as a significant achievement, with national security adviser Jake Sullivan indicating that the president aims to solidify this progress.
Sullivan characterized the meeting as “an opportunity to ensure a smooth transition, and also to continue to keep those channels of communication open, including those especially critical military-to-military channels of communication.”
This could be a vital safeguard, given Trump's past skepticism about the U.S. commitment to Taiwan—a change that could potentially embolden China to execute a long-threatened invasion.
A Biden-Xi discussion holds considerable significance for “sustaining the diplomatic stabilization that has been underway for the past two years — the Taiwan issue, in particular, requires continuous communication,” stated Susan Shirk, former deputy assistant secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific Affairs during the Clinton administration.
Biden, however, faces limitations in his ability to act. Military-to-military communications have reached a milestone the Biden administration aimed for, with the last outstanding working group on crisis communications holding its inaugural meeting last month. Beyond expressing hope that these mechanisms endure under Trump, there are few additional steps available for Biden.
It will be the responsibility of the secretary of Defense to maintain these communication channels. Given the likely skepticism toward U.S.-China military ties from Trump’s nominee for this position, Pete Hegseth, challenges remain. Hegseth has cautioned that China is “building a military to defeat the United States” and has echoed allegations made by Trump about “tens of thousands of Chinese nationals” at the southern border as part of that strategy.
Many analysts believe that the upcoming meeting will likely be positioned more as an opportunity for Biden to highlight his administration’s modest achievements regarding China. The Biden administration cites Beijing’s actions against domestic fentanyl precursor production and dialogue surrounding the responsible use of artificial intelligence as key successes in its outreach efforts.
“We all understand that this is President Biden’s farewell tour,” noted Josh Lipsky, a senior director at the Atlantic Council and former special adviser during the Obama administration. “Everything about [the Biden-Xi] meeting will be looking backward, not as much looking forwards.”
Biden and Xi could use this final meeting to discuss the reopening of their consulates in Houston and Chengdu, which were closed amid diplomatic tensions during Trump’s first term. However, any agreement could be easily undone by Rubio if he is confirmed as Secretary of State.
“The Chinese have no incentive to give anything to the U.S. that can be reversed by the incoming administration,” remarked Evan Feigenbaum, a China expert and former deputy assistant secretary of State under President George W. Bush.
One potential action for Biden and Xi before January 20 could involve the release of two U.S. citizens imprisoned in China, whom the State Department regards as “wrongfully detained.” The governments recently negotiated a prisoner swap, providing a glimmer of hope for these ongoing discussions.
Additionally, there exists the possibility that Xi and his advisors—limited in their access to Trump and his team—may seek Biden’s insights into navigating the incoming administration, including whether Trump will fulfill his promise of imposing 60 percent tariffs on Chinese imports.
Ultimately, the true indication of Xi's outlook on U.S.-China relations during a second Trump administration may be revealed immediately following their meeting. The tone and specifics in the Chinese state media’s coverage of the meeting, compared to Xi’s engagements with other international leaders, will likely illustrate Xi's perspective on the importance of his conversation with Biden.
The photographs and framing employed by state media during the meeting will also convey China's interpretation of the encounter, as they have a history of selectively presenting leader-to-leader meetings, emphasizing Xi's stature while downplaying his foreign counterparts.
Cooper, now with the American Enterprise Institute, contended that for Biden, the meeting with Xi may not rank highly among his priorities for this final overseas trip.
Biden will likely turn his attention to the G20 in Rio de Janeiro the following week, seeking to emphasize “how tied together the U.S. is with its allies,” Cooper explained, adding that a successful meeting with Xi is “not critical to that mission.”
Max Fischer for TROIB News
During his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit in Lima on Saturday, Biden is expected to aim at maintaining recently reestablished military communications to avoid misunderstandings that could lead to unintended conflicts between the two adversarial powers.
However, conveying a message of continuity from the U.S. may prove difficult for Biden, particularly after Trump's decisive victory, which included promises to impose stringent tariffs on China and his intention to nominate Sen. Marco Rubio, a vocal critic of Beijing, as his secretary of State.
Nevertheless, China might be inclined to take steps to solidify some modest gains achieved under Biden's administration over the past four years, particularly as Xi grapples with domestic economic challenges and seeks to enhance China’s negotiating position with the new U.S. administration.
“I wouldn’t be shocked if the Chinese are trying to get agreement on the principles that have guided the relationship the last four years,” observed Zack Cooper, a China expert with senior roles in the Defense Department and National Security Council during the Obama administration. “Maybe they want to be able to say going into the next administration that ‘over the last four years, we agreed on some principles, here’s what they are,’ and try to hold the next team to that.”
This could involve reaffirming the importance of U.S.-China communication tools for military, economic, and financial information-sharing, which may be jeopardized under the incoming Trump administration. Alternatively, the leaders might express mutual support for a framework on the development and deployment of artificial intelligence.
The Biden administration's reestablishment of communication channels between the U.S. and China is viewed as a significant achievement, with national security adviser Jake Sullivan indicating that the president aims to solidify this progress.
Sullivan characterized the meeting as “an opportunity to ensure a smooth transition, and also to continue to keep those channels of communication open, including those especially critical military-to-military channels of communication.”
This could be a vital safeguard, given Trump's past skepticism about the U.S. commitment to Taiwan—a change that could potentially embolden China to execute a long-threatened invasion.
A Biden-Xi discussion holds considerable significance for “sustaining the diplomatic stabilization that has been underway for the past two years — the Taiwan issue, in particular, requires continuous communication,” stated Susan Shirk, former deputy assistant secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific Affairs during the Clinton administration.
Biden, however, faces limitations in his ability to act. Military-to-military communications have reached a milestone the Biden administration aimed for, with the last outstanding working group on crisis communications holding its inaugural meeting last month. Beyond expressing hope that these mechanisms endure under Trump, there are few additional steps available for Biden.
It will be the responsibility of the secretary of Defense to maintain these communication channels. Given the likely skepticism toward U.S.-China military ties from Trump’s nominee for this position, Pete Hegseth, challenges remain. Hegseth has cautioned that China is “building a military to defeat the United States” and has echoed allegations made by Trump about “tens of thousands of Chinese nationals” at the southern border as part of that strategy.
Many analysts believe that the upcoming meeting will likely be positioned more as an opportunity for Biden to highlight his administration’s modest achievements regarding China. The Biden administration cites Beijing’s actions against domestic fentanyl precursor production and dialogue surrounding the responsible use of artificial intelligence as key successes in its outreach efforts.
“We all understand that this is President Biden’s farewell tour,” noted Josh Lipsky, a senior director at the Atlantic Council and former special adviser during the Obama administration. “Everything about [the Biden-Xi] meeting will be looking backward, not as much looking forwards.”
Biden and Xi could use this final meeting to discuss the reopening of their consulates in Houston and Chengdu, which were closed amid diplomatic tensions during Trump’s first term. However, any agreement could be easily undone by Rubio if he is confirmed as Secretary of State.
“The Chinese have no incentive to give anything to the U.S. that can be reversed by the incoming administration,” remarked Evan Feigenbaum, a China expert and former deputy assistant secretary of State under President George W. Bush.
One potential action for Biden and Xi before January 20 could involve the release of two U.S. citizens imprisoned in China, whom the State Department regards as “wrongfully detained.” The governments recently negotiated a prisoner swap, providing a glimmer of hope for these ongoing discussions.
Additionally, there exists the possibility that Xi and his advisors—limited in their access to Trump and his team—may seek Biden’s insights into navigating the incoming administration, including whether Trump will fulfill his promise of imposing 60 percent tariffs on Chinese imports.
Ultimately, the true indication of Xi's outlook on U.S.-China relations during a second Trump administration may be revealed immediately following their meeting. The tone and specifics in the Chinese state media’s coverage of the meeting, compared to Xi’s engagements with other international leaders, will likely illustrate Xi's perspective on the importance of his conversation with Biden.
The photographs and framing employed by state media during the meeting will also convey China's interpretation of the encounter, as they have a history of selectively presenting leader-to-leader meetings, emphasizing Xi's stature while downplaying his foreign counterparts.
Cooper, now with the American Enterprise Institute, contended that for Biden, the meeting with Xi may not rank highly among his priorities for this final overseas trip.
Biden will likely turn his attention to the G20 in Rio de Janeiro the following week, seeking to emphasize “how tied together the U.S. is with its allies,” Cooper explained, adding that a successful meeting with Xi is “not critical to that mission.”
Max Fischer for TROIB News
