Trump Behind in Early Voting Among Seniors in Pennsylvania, a Warning Sign for the GOP
Seniors in Pennsylvania have cast approximately 58 percent of their votes for Democrats up to this point.
TroibNews 
Donald Trump is trailing Kamala Harris in early voting in Pennsylvania, particularly among a key demographic that has traditionally supported Republicans: seniors. This trend is a concerning sign for the former president, especially since Republicans have consistently won the senior vote in the last five presidential elections.
In Pennsylvania, voters aged 65 and older have accounted for nearly half of the early ballots, with registered Democrats making up approximately 58 percent of the votes cast by seniors, compared to 35 percent for Republicans. This shift is notable, especially given the roughly equal number of registered voters in this age group from both parties.
Although the partisan divide among seniors is less pronounced than in 2020, Republicans view this as promising, as they anticipate a higher turnout of older voters on Election Day while Democrats already have a solid early voting lead.
Polling indicates a decline in Trump's support from older voters. A recent Fox News poll reveals that he is currently 5 percentage points behind Harris among voters aged 65 and older, a drop from the previous month when both candidates were tied in this demographic. This represents a significant change from 2020 when Trump secured 53 percent of the senior vote in Pennsylvania, despite losing the state.
For Democrats, this situation offers an unexpected source of optimism. Tom Bonier, a Democratic strategist and CEO of the data firm TargetSmart, described the trend as a “silver surge” in early voting among older Democrats. He remarked, “Our expectation going into the early vote was that it would, in general, skew substantially more Republican than in 2020.”
The senior vote holds particular significance in five of the seven battleground states, including Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and North Carolina, all of which have higher populations of residents over the age of 65 than the national average. Modeling data indicates that across these Blue Wall states, Democratic voters over 65 are outperforming their Republican counterparts in terms of registered turnout by 10 to 20 percent. Additionally, the same data shows that Black voters over 65, especially older Black women, a crucial Democratic bloc, are returning ballots at higher rates than other demographic groups.
In Pennsylvania, while Republicans are encouraged by a narrowing partisan gap in early ballots compared to 2020 — down from nearly 50 points to just a 25-point advantage for Democrats — it remains uncertain how this will affect the overall electorate's composition by the time all votes are tallied. A PMG analysis suggests that about 35 percent of Republicans who have voted so far did not cast their ballots until Election Day in 2020, in contrast to only 8 percent of Democrats under the same conditions. This may indicate that the early voter landscape in Pennsylvania is leaning more Republican this year, while the Election Day turnout may skew towards Democrats.
Despite these trends, it’s common for both seniors and Democratic voters to cast their votes early, both through absentee ballots and prior to Election Day. Kush Desai, a spokesperson for the Pennsylvania Trump campaign, expressed confidence, stating, “Americans of all ages and backgrounds are unifying behind President Trump’s agenda to Make America Safe, Strong, Wealthy, and Great Again.”
Republican strategist Charlie Gerow added that older Republicans traditionally prefer voting on Election Day due to their established habits. He commented, “So if the numbers are that tightly squeezed, it says that Republicans are going to do very well on November 5.”
Earlier, RNC Chair Michael Whatley noted that metrics like voter registration and early voting numbers appear strong for Republicans across the battleground states. A recent CNN poll showed Harris narrowly leading Trump among voters 65 and older in Pennsylvania and Michigan, while Trump maintained a lead with older voters in Wisconsin. Nationally, an ABC News poll indicated that Harris has a 5-point advantage among voters over 65, reflecting a swing of 10 points toward Democrats compared to 2020.
Bob Ward, a partner at Fabrizio Ward who has conducted polling for AARP, expressed that seniors are particularly motivated to vote. “Seniors across the board are the most motivated to vote,” he stated, highlighting their vested interest in government programs like Medicare and Social Security.
Both campaigns are actively courting senior voters. Trump recently hosted an event in Drexel Hill, Pennsylvania, addressing seniors’ concerns about various issues, including immigration and social security. He has promised to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits and proposed tax breaks for at-home caregivers, emphasizing that immigration is a key issue for seniors.
Conversely, Harris has vowed to protect Social Security from cuts and has promoted her plan to expand Medicare for home care services, centering her messaging around defending democracy and reproductive rights. Bonier noted that older women may be particularly energized to vote following the Dobbs decision, saying, “They’re fired up.”
Max Fischer contributed to this report for TROIB News
In Pennsylvania, voters aged 65 and older have accounted for nearly half of the early ballots, with registered Democrats making up approximately 58 percent of the votes cast by seniors, compared to 35 percent for Republicans. This shift is notable, especially given the roughly equal number of registered voters in this age group from both parties.
Although the partisan divide among seniors is less pronounced than in 2020, Republicans view this as promising, as they anticipate a higher turnout of older voters on Election Day while Democrats already have a solid early voting lead.
Polling indicates a decline in Trump's support from older voters. A recent Fox News poll reveals that he is currently 5 percentage points behind Harris among voters aged 65 and older, a drop from the previous month when both candidates were tied in this demographic. This represents a significant change from 2020 when Trump secured 53 percent of the senior vote in Pennsylvania, despite losing the state.
For Democrats, this situation offers an unexpected source of optimism. Tom Bonier, a Democratic strategist and CEO of the data firm TargetSmart, described the trend as a “silver surge” in early voting among older Democrats. He remarked, “Our expectation going into the early vote was that it would, in general, skew substantially more Republican than in 2020.”
The senior vote holds particular significance in five of the seven battleground states, including Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and North Carolina, all of which have higher populations of residents over the age of 65 than the national average. Modeling data indicates that across these Blue Wall states, Democratic voters over 65 are outperforming their Republican counterparts in terms of registered turnout by 10 to 20 percent. Additionally, the same data shows that Black voters over 65, especially older Black women, a crucial Democratic bloc, are returning ballots at higher rates than other demographic groups.
In Pennsylvania, while Republicans are encouraged by a narrowing partisan gap in early ballots compared to 2020 — down from nearly 50 points to just a 25-point advantage for Democrats — it remains uncertain how this will affect the overall electorate's composition by the time all votes are tallied. A PMG analysis suggests that about 35 percent of Republicans who have voted so far did not cast their ballots until Election Day in 2020, in contrast to only 8 percent of Democrats under the same conditions. This may indicate that the early voter landscape in Pennsylvania is leaning more Republican this year, while the Election Day turnout may skew towards Democrats.
Despite these trends, it’s common for both seniors and Democratic voters to cast their votes early, both through absentee ballots and prior to Election Day. Kush Desai, a spokesperson for the Pennsylvania Trump campaign, expressed confidence, stating, “Americans of all ages and backgrounds are unifying behind President Trump’s agenda to Make America Safe, Strong, Wealthy, and Great Again.”
Republican strategist Charlie Gerow added that older Republicans traditionally prefer voting on Election Day due to their established habits. He commented, “So if the numbers are that tightly squeezed, it says that Republicans are going to do very well on November 5.”
Earlier, RNC Chair Michael Whatley noted that metrics like voter registration and early voting numbers appear strong for Republicans across the battleground states. A recent CNN poll showed Harris narrowly leading Trump among voters 65 and older in Pennsylvania and Michigan, while Trump maintained a lead with older voters in Wisconsin. Nationally, an ABC News poll indicated that Harris has a 5-point advantage among voters over 65, reflecting a swing of 10 points toward Democrats compared to 2020.
Bob Ward, a partner at Fabrizio Ward who has conducted polling for AARP, expressed that seniors are particularly motivated to vote. “Seniors across the board are the most motivated to vote,” he stated, highlighting their vested interest in government programs like Medicare and Social Security.
Both campaigns are actively courting senior voters. Trump recently hosted an event in Drexel Hill, Pennsylvania, addressing seniors’ concerns about various issues, including immigration and social security. He has promised to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits and proposed tax breaks for at-home caregivers, emphasizing that immigration is a key issue for seniors.
Conversely, Harris has vowed to protect Social Security from cuts and has promoted her plan to expand Medicare for home care services, centering her messaging around defending democracy and reproductive rights. Bonier noted that older women may be particularly energized to vote following the Dobbs decision, saying, “They’re fired up.”
Max Fischer contributed to this report for TROIB News
