Study indicates climate change is diminishing the intensity of extreme cold events
A recent study reveals that climate change is diminishing the severity of extreme cold events.
TroibNews 
A recent joint study by researchers from China and the U.S. reveals that human-induced climate change is reducing the severity of extreme cold events. Although severe cold waves still occur, their intensity and frequency have markedly declined due to global warming, contradicting the widespread belief that climate change leads to harsher winters.
Published in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, the study involved experts from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, and the University at Albany - State University of New York.
The research focused on the severe cold wave that impacted eastern China in December 2023, identifying unusual large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns as the main contributors to the event, which accounted for 83 percent of its intensity. In contrast, the warming effects of climate change reduced its severity by up to 22 percent.
"Our findings confirm that human-induced climate change is actually weakening extreme cold events," stated Qian Cheng, a professor at the IAP.
The study indicates that anthropogenic warming has decreased both the occurrence and intensity of cold waves akin to the 2023 episode—by more than 92 percent and 1.9 degrees Celsius, respectively—compared to a scenario without human influence. Projections suggest that such events will become even less common and milder by the century's end, with a potential 95 percent reduction in frequency and a more than 2 degrees Celsius drop in intensity under an intermediate-emissions scenario.
Nonetheless, the researchers cautioned that extreme cold events are not expected to vanish entirely.
"If carbon neutrality is achieved and global warming stabilizes at 1.5 degrees Celsius, we could still see cold extremes similar to those today," Qian noted. "That means societies must remain prepared for sudden cold snaps, even if the 1.5-degree target of the Paris Agreement is met."
These findings highlight the importance of developing adaptive strategies to address the impacts of extreme cold events, Qian emphasized.
Mark B Thomas for TROIB News
Published in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, the study involved experts from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, and the University at Albany - State University of New York.
The research focused on the severe cold wave that impacted eastern China in December 2023, identifying unusual large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns as the main contributors to the event, which accounted for 83 percent of its intensity. In contrast, the warming effects of climate change reduced its severity by up to 22 percent.
"Our findings confirm that human-induced climate change is actually weakening extreme cold events," stated Qian Cheng, a professor at the IAP.
The study indicates that anthropogenic warming has decreased both the occurrence and intensity of cold waves akin to the 2023 episode—by more than 92 percent and 1.9 degrees Celsius, respectively—compared to a scenario without human influence. Projections suggest that such events will become even less common and milder by the century's end, with a potential 95 percent reduction in frequency and a more than 2 degrees Celsius drop in intensity under an intermediate-emissions scenario.
Nonetheless, the researchers cautioned that extreme cold events are not expected to vanish entirely.
"If carbon neutrality is achieved and global warming stabilizes at 1.5 degrees Celsius, we could still see cold extremes similar to those today," Qian noted. "That means societies must remain prepared for sudden cold snaps, even if the 1.5-degree target of the Paris Agreement is met."
These findings highlight the importance of developing adaptive strategies to address the impacts of extreme cold events, Qian emphasized.
Mark B Thomas for TROIB News
