Republicans Make Significant Bets on Trans Issues, But Following Through May Be Challenging.
A faction within the party, comprising various GOP governors, argues against government involvement.
TroibNews 
Donald Trump is allocating a significant portion of his advertising budget to target Kamala Harris over her support for transgender rights in the final days of the campaign, a strategy that down-ballot Republicans are mirroring in the belief that this issue could influence tight races.
However, the GOP is discovering that opposing transgender rights is easier in theory than in practice, particularly when it involves taking drastic actions such as removing children from sports teams or denying parents access to medically advised treatments. Some party members express concern that their current stance clashes with traditional conservative values centered on individual and parental rights.
“Why would you want the state to be making these decisions?” said Barbara Comstock, a Republican who served two terms representing a northern Virginia House district until 2018. “It opens a Pandora’s box when you don’t allow the parents and the doctors to make this decision.”
The intense focus on transgender rights not only sets the stage for the next wave of the culture war but may also predict an increase in attempts to limit federal protections for transgender children regarding transitioning, sports participation, or the use of facilities that align with their gender identity. These conflicts could challenge the party’s fundamental beliefs about the use of government power in ways that impact families and localities.
Despite nearly half of U.S. states enacting bans on gender-affirming care for minors or prohibiting transgender students from participating in their identity-aligned sports leagues, six Republican governors have vetoed such restrictions, voicing concerns about government overreach.
“There’s a struggle going on in the party right now,” said Alex Lundry, a conservative pollster opposed to the bans, regarding “the ideal size and role of government.”
In North Dakota, Gov. Doug Burgum expressed discomfort with the “heavy hand of state government” when he vetoed a bill that restricted teachers from using transgender students’ preferred pronouns without consent from school authorities.
Arkansas’ then-Gov. Asa Hutchinson described a vetoed bill that would have set “new standards of legislative interference with physicians and parents.”
In Ohio, Gov. Mike DeWine invoked anti-abortion rhetoric when he vetoed a bill banning gender-affirming care, labeling it “pro-life.”
Nonetheless, Republicans across presidential, congressional, and state races are leveraging this issue to distinguish themselves from Democrats.
“It is getting you in the door to at least think about voting Republican if you’re on the fence,” said May Mailman, a former legal advisor to Trump and current director of the Independent Women’s Law Center, a conservative group opposing transgender rights.
Democrats are skeptical about the effectiveness of this strategy, with Viet Shelton, spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, suggesting that it is unlikely to influence swing voters. Instead, he believes it serves mainly as a rallying cry for the base, which may not be a viable strategy given that most voters prioritize economic concerns.
However, Mailman believes that the issue resonated at this summer’s Republican National Convention, where the base gathered in Milwaukee, and she is confident that a second Trump administration would vigorously pursue limitations on transgender rights.
Trump has signaled support for such measures.
“We just ban it — the president bans it,” Trump stated during a recent town hall when asked about transgender women competing in women’s sports leagues. “We absolutely stop it. You can’t have it.”
Five GOP campaign strategists, who spoke anonymously to discuss internal strategy, indicated that the advertising campaign is not solely aimed at their base. One adviser noted that they’ve observed their messaging significantly influencing undecided voters, prompting “a lot of money” to be funneled into advertisements emphasizing this issue.
They acknowledged that few voters regularly encounter the scenarios depicted in the ads, given the small population of transgender youth—around 3 percent of U.S. high schoolers, according to a recent survey. As a result, campaigns are concentrating on more relatable situations: while most parents don’t face decisions about gender-affirming care for their kids, they have children who play sports and experience changes in school curricula.
Some strategists pointed out that discussing transgender issues is particularly effective in reaching socially conservative Hispanic voters in certain races.
Samuel Rodriguez, a Trump supporter and president of the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference, affirmed this perspective, noting that discussions around transgender issues and parental rights have overtaken abortion as key cultural concerns among Hispanic and evangelical voters.
“There’s still a pro-life commitment, but it’s more about parental rights and ‘get your hands off our kids,’” he said.
Trump’s policy proposals aim to capitalize on this sentiment, which include preventing taxpayer funding from going toward transition surgeries, prohibiting trans women from participating in women’s sports leagues, and banning federally funded schools from “promoting gender transition,” as per a campaign spokesperson's statement.
The campaign did not answer inquiries about whether Trump would pursue a ban on gender-affirming care.
Most medical organizations in the U.S. endorse gender-affirming care following extensive independent reviews, a process that can include counseling, puberty-blocking hormones, transition drugs, and, in rare instances, surgeries for youths experiencing gender dysphoria.
Opponents argue that such treatments are often harmful, asserting that doctors and medical organizations cannot be trusted concerning these issues. They reference instances where young individuals have transitioned, only to later seek to reverse the process, or studies, like one from the U.K.’s National Health Service this year, indicating that treatment can negatively impact bone and brain development, sexual function, and fertility.
On the athletic front, Republicans contend that trans women should not compete against cisgender women due to perceived physical advantages stemming from their development.
GOP supporters have utilized this point to position themselves as champions of women’s rights, even as Democrats criticize them regarding reproductive rights.
“People have always cared about women’s sports,” Mailman noted. “It’s a 70-30 issue.”
The consequences of these policies have sparked controversy within the states. Over half of the states have enacted bans related to medical care, sports, bathrooms, or pronouns, prompting many transgender children and their families to relocate to states that allow such care.
Dr. Deborah Greenhouse, a pediatrician in South Carolina, reported that her patients with gender dysphoria and the resources to do so have either moved or plan to move.
“Maybe that’s what our legislators want,” Greenhouse reflected. “It’s not what I want. I want to be able to provide the best care for my patients.”
Providers frequently express uncertainty regarding what care or advice they are permitted to give, citing ambiguous laws.
In some instances, local school districts have defied state laws. For example, the Kearsarge Regional School District in New London, New Hampshire, allowed a 16-year-old transgender girl to join the girls' soccer team despite a state law prohibiting it. Following protests from residents on both sides of the issue, a federal judge blocked the law's enforcement last month.
Many of these laws are currently being challenged in court. The Supreme Court is set to hear arguments in December regarding the ban on gender-affirming care for minors in Tennessee. A group of 30 Republicans, including Comstock and former Reps. Deborah Pryce of Ohio and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of Florida, have submitted a brief to the Supreme Court urging it to overturn the ban.
While nearly 70 percent of Americans believe transgender athletes should compete only in leagues that match their sex at birth, according to a 2023 Gallup poll, a majority also oppose certain state laws. Over 60 percent of respondents in a 2024 Gallup poll expressed opposition to bans on gender-affirming care, while 64 percent of participants in a 2022 Pew Research Center poll supported measures to protect transgender individuals from discrimination.
Republicans who are against state bans interpret this as reflective of traditional American values, emphasizing fairness and individual freedom over an overreaching government.
Comstock cautions that the divide over how much conservatives should see the government as a tool for societal change “might not stop here.”
Republicans advocating for transgender rights advise their party members to learn from the past. Public sentiment shifted significantly on same-sex marriage, which most Americans once opposed, but now support. Many Republicans voted alongside Democrats to codify that right in Congress two years ago.
These supporters of transgender rights within the GOP worry this issue could ultimately become a burden, similar to abortion—another social topic that used to energize Republican voters but has now become a liability following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in 2022.
“This is an issue that is evolving before our eyes in real time,” stated Brian Jones, a long-time Republican party operative who signed the Supreme Court brief. “These things can kind of move quickly and in ways that are somewhat unpredictable.”
Vice President Kamala Harris has sought to turn attacks on transgender rights back on Trump, pointing out that his administration implemented the very policies his campaign currently criticizes, such as making medically necessary gender-affirming care available to inmates.
“You’ve got to take [responsibility] for what happens in your administration,” she remarked in a Fox News interview earlier this month.
Democrats argue that it is hypocritical for Republicans to advocate for parental rights regarding educational content or a child’s chosen pronouns while simultaneously denying parents’ rights concerning gender-affirming care decisions for their children.
“They are anti-freedom,” said Shelton from the DCCC, commenting on the GOP's opposition to transgender rights.
Advocates for transgender individuals perceive an even more alarming trend. Jay Brown, chief of staff at the Human Rights Campaign, noted the anxiety faced by transgender youth and their families amidst the barrage of advertising. “They go to restaurants, and the TVs are on, and they see the ads. They turn on the TV at home, and they see the ads,” he remarked. “It’s in their faces all the time.”
Navid Kalantari contributed to this report for TROIB News
However, the GOP is discovering that opposing transgender rights is easier in theory than in practice, particularly when it involves taking drastic actions such as removing children from sports teams or denying parents access to medically advised treatments. Some party members express concern that their current stance clashes with traditional conservative values centered on individual and parental rights.
“Why would you want the state to be making these decisions?” said Barbara Comstock, a Republican who served two terms representing a northern Virginia House district until 2018. “It opens a Pandora’s box when you don’t allow the parents and the doctors to make this decision.”
The intense focus on transgender rights not only sets the stage for the next wave of the culture war but may also predict an increase in attempts to limit federal protections for transgender children regarding transitioning, sports participation, or the use of facilities that align with their gender identity. These conflicts could challenge the party’s fundamental beliefs about the use of government power in ways that impact families and localities.
Despite nearly half of U.S. states enacting bans on gender-affirming care for minors or prohibiting transgender students from participating in their identity-aligned sports leagues, six Republican governors have vetoed such restrictions, voicing concerns about government overreach.
“There’s a struggle going on in the party right now,” said Alex Lundry, a conservative pollster opposed to the bans, regarding “the ideal size and role of government.”
In North Dakota, Gov. Doug Burgum expressed discomfort with the “heavy hand of state government” when he vetoed a bill that restricted teachers from using transgender students’ preferred pronouns without consent from school authorities.
Arkansas’ then-Gov. Asa Hutchinson described a vetoed bill that would have set “new standards of legislative interference with physicians and parents.”
In Ohio, Gov. Mike DeWine invoked anti-abortion rhetoric when he vetoed a bill banning gender-affirming care, labeling it “pro-life.”
Nonetheless, Republicans across presidential, congressional, and state races are leveraging this issue to distinguish themselves from Democrats.
“It is getting you in the door to at least think about voting Republican if you’re on the fence,” said May Mailman, a former legal advisor to Trump and current director of the Independent Women’s Law Center, a conservative group opposing transgender rights.
Democrats are skeptical about the effectiveness of this strategy, with Viet Shelton, spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, suggesting that it is unlikely to influence swing voters. Instead, he believes it serves mainly as a rallying cry for the base, which may not be a viable strategy given that most voters prioritize economic concerns.
However, Mailman believes that the issue resonated at this summer’s Republican National Convention, where the base gathered in Milwaukee, and she is confident that a second Trump administration would vigorously pursue limitations on transgender rights.
Trump has signaled support for such measures.
“We just ban it — the president bans it,” Trump stated during a recent town hall when asked about transgender women competing in women’s sports leagues. “We absolutely stop it. You can’t have it.”
Five GOP campaign strategists, who spoke anonymously to discuss internal strategy, indicated that the advertising campaign is not solely aimed at their base. One adviser noted that they’ve observed their messaging significantly influencing undecided voters, prompting “a lot of money” to be funneled into advertisements emphasizing this issue.
They acknowledged that few voters regularly encounter the scenarios depicted in the ads, given the small population of transgender youth—around 3 percent of U.S. high schoolers, according to a recent survey. As a result, campaigns are concentrating on more relatable situations: while most parents don’t face decisions about gender-affirming care for their kids, they have children who play sports and experience changes in school curricula.
Some strategists pointed out that discussing transgender issues is particularly effective in reaching socially conservative Hispanic voters in certain races.
Samuel Rodriguez, a Trump supporter and president of the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference, affirmed this perspective, noting that discussions around transgender issues and parental rights have overtaken abortion as key cultural concerns among Hispanic and evangelical voters.
“There’s still a pro-life commitment, but it’s more about parental rights and ‘get your hands off our kids,’” he said.
Trump’s policy proposals aim to capitalize on this sentiment, which include preventing taxpayer funding from going toward transition surgeries, prohibiting trans women from participating in women’s sports leagues, and banning federally funded schools from “promoting gender transition,” as per a campaign spokesperson's statement.
The campaign did not answer inquiries about whether Trump would pursue a ban on gender-affirming care.
Most medical organizations in the U.S. endorse gender-affirming care following extensive independent reviews, a process that can include counseling, puberty-blocking hormones, transition drugs, and, in rare instances, surgeries for youths experiencing gender dysphoria.
Opponents argue that such treatments are often harmful, asserting that doctors and medical organizations cannot be trusted concerning these issues. They reference instances where young individuals have transitioned, only to later seek to reverse the process, or studies, like one from the U.K.’s National Health Service this year, indicating that treatment can negatively impact bone and brain development, sexual function, and fertility.
On the athletic front, Republicans contend that trans women should not compete against cisgender women due to perceived physical advantages stemming from their development.
GOP supporters have utilized this point to position themselves as champions of women’s rights, even as Democrats criticize them regarding reproductive rights.
“People have always cared about women’s sports,” Mailman noted. “It’s a 70-30 issue.”
The consequences of these policies have sparked controversy within the states. Over half of the states have enacted bans related to medical care, sports, bathrooms, or pronouns, prompting many transgender children and their families to relocate to states that allow such care.
Dr. Deborah Greenhouse, a pediatrician in South Carolina, reported that her patients with gender dysphoria and the resources to do so have either moved or plan to move.
“Maybe that’s what our legislators want,” Greenhouse reflected. “It’s not what I want. I want to be able to provide the best care for my patients.”
Providers frequently express uncertainty regarding what care or advice they are permitted to give, citing ambiguous laws.
In some instances, local school districts have defied state laws. For example, the Kearsarge Regional School District in New London, New Hampshire, allowed a 16-year-old transgender girl to join the girls' soccer team despite a state law prohibiting it. Following protests from residents on both sides of the issue, a federal judge blocked the law's enforcement last month.
Many of these laws are currently being challenged in court. The Supreme Court is set to hear arguments in December regarding the ban on gender-affirming care for minors in Tennessee. A group of 30 Republicans, including Comstock and former Reps. Deborah Pryce of Ohio and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of Florida, have submitted a brief to the Supreme Court urging it to overturn the ban.
While nearly 70 percent of Americans believe transgender athletes should compete only in leagues that match their sex at birth, according to a 2023 Gallup poll, a majority also oppose certain state laws. Over 60 percent of respondents in a 2024 Gallup poll expressed opposition to bans on gender-affirming care, while 64 percent of participants in a 2022 Pew Research Center poll supported measures to protect transgender individuals from discrimination.
Republicans who are against state bans interpret this as reflective of traditional American values, emphasizing fairness and individual freedom over an overreaching government.
Comstock cautions that the divide over how much conservatives should see the government as a tool for societal change “might not stop here.”
Republicans advocating for transgender rights advise their party members to learn from the past. Public sentiment shifted significantly on same-sex marriage, which most Americans once opposed, but now support. Many Republicans voted alongside Democrats to codify that right in Congress two years ago.
These supporters of transgender rights within the GOP worry this issue could ultimately become a burden, similar to abortion—another social topic that used to energize Republican voters but has now become a liability following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in 2022.
“This is an issue that is evolving before our eyes in real time,” stated Brian Jones, a long-time Republican party operative who signed the Supreme Court brief. “These things can kind of move quickly and in ways that are somewhat unpredictable.”
Vice President Kamala Harris has sought to turn attacks on transgender rights back on Trump, pointing out that his administration implemented the very policies his campaign currently criticizes, such as making medically necessary gender-affirming care available to inmates.
“You’ve got to take [responsibility] for what happens in your administration,” she remarked in a Fox News interview earlier this month.
Democrats argue that it is hypocritical for Republicans to advocate for parental rights regarding educational content or a child’s chosen pronouns while simultaneously denying parents’ rights concerning gender-affirming care decisions for their children.
“They are anti-freedom,” said Shelton from the DCCC, commenting on the GOP's opposition to transgender rights.
Advocates for transgender individuals perceive an even more alarming trend. Jay Brown, chief of staff at the Human Rights Campaign, noted the anxiety faced by transgender youth and their families amidst the barrage of advertising. “They go to restaurants, and the TVs are on, and they see the ads. They turn on the TV at home, and they see the ads,” he remarked. “It’s in their faces all the time.”
Navid Kalantari contributed to this report for TROIB News
