Is Trump the Modern Reagan?
A decisive win grants the president-elect a level of strength and credibility on the international stage that was absent eight years prior.
TroibNews 
Eight years ago, during a post-election breakfast at PMG's Brussels offices, I observed Donald Trump declare victory in a presidential election alongside stunned European legislators and policymakers.
The atmosphere in global capitals this Wednesday morning was quite different, marked by anxiety in many areas and jubilation in others. However, shock was absent; the world has grown accustomed to Trump in power. The same individuals who attended the Brussels party in 2016 have spent months readying themselves for a potential return.
A significant change is that one of America's perceived flaws is its "polarized" and "dysfunctional" politics, a characterization I haven’t heard since Trump’s election was called early. His victory — a decisive sweep of critical swing states, a strong popular vote showing, and what might be a majority in both houses of Congress — undermines the narrative that America is a fading giant hindered by chaotic internal politics despite its vast advantages over rivals.
This election brings clarity: Trump will head a unified party, in stark contrast to 2016, likely leading a cohesive government as well. While this can be labeled in various ways, it does not suggest dysfunction or debilitating polarization for the time being. Trump possesses a mandate; he won’t face a prolonged battle over his victory as he did with the Russia probe. Although he carries legal troubles and the weight of 78 years of habits, Trump is a more potent figure than he was in 2016. Back then, he was viewed with suspicion by Republican leaders and loathed by Democrats, having won the presidency while losing the popular vote by three million ballots. He is now stronger at home, which translates to being stronger abroad.
This political resurgence grants Trump the credibility and leeway on the global stage that he lacked in 2017. However, this does not imply he will conform to conventional standards of being "presidential." “Unpredictable,” is how Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk described Trump earlier this week. While it's uncertain whether this will lead to a more robust U.S., Trump’s isolationist tendencies, his affinity for Vladimir Putin, and his protectionist trade policies are significant concerns borne from a lengthy public career.
What I’m suggesting is that Trump now has the capacity to influence global events in ways he couldn’t before. This is either alarming or exhilarating, contingent upon whether he opts to engage with the world or retreat. As former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt put it, the prevailing sentiment across much of Europe is one of “gloom and despair.” Conversely, British economic historian Niall Ferguson interprets the possibility of Trump as a formidable global figure, identifying a “line of continuity” from Reagan to Trump, who could lead the free world to victory in what he calls “Cold War II.”
The global landscape is more intricate and perilous than the one Trump departed in 2021. In this new Cold War, the U.S. confronts an empowered coalition of authoritarians spearheaded by China, accompanied by a war-engaged Russia in Europe, Iran in the Middle East, and North Korea. These nations convened last month in Kazan, Russia, alongside South Africa and NATO member Turkey, forming a sort of summit for a parallel global order outside U.S. influence.
American allies in Asia and Europe are seeking direction from Washington. Will Trump 47 surprise them? The answer hinges on whether “Make America Great Again” tilts more toward “America First” or “Peace Through Strength,” a choice uniquely his own.
Three immediate tests will be telling: the appointments he makes, his stance on Ukraine, and his approach to global trade restrictions.
Trump’s potential team is diverse. Figures like ex-NSC adviser Robert O’Brien and Florida Senator Marco Rubio advocate for American engagement abroad. Brian Hook, tasked with leading the State Department transition, emerges from that school as well. Conversely, those like Ric Grenell, a former ambassador to Germany and likely candidate for a senior position, are more aligned with Trump’s brash style. Meanwhile, Vice President-elect JD Vance represents the isolationist faction. There are also numerous opportunists; as one Trump-aligned ambassador remarked, “If Trump brings in Johnny McEntee or Kash Patel, we’re all screwed.”
Ukraine will serve as a litmus test for American military and diplomatic prowess, especially from a European perspective. Interestingly, during my recent weeks in Asia, I found Ukraine to be a significant concern there as well. When Asia looks at the U.S. role in Ukraine, they interpret it through the lens of its potential influence on deterring China in East and Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, European eyes are focused on how committed the U.S. will be to NATO and stability along their eastern border with Russia. Clarity is sought by both regions. During his campaign, Trump blamed Volodymyr Zelenskyy for instigating the war and was noncommittal about supporting Ukraine’s victory. He has claimed he wants to end the conflict on his first day; let’s hope this aspiration does not come to fruition. It's simple for Trump and his advisers: Any action that grants Putin a win effectively boosts China, weakening both Europe and the U.S. This outcome does not align with the notion of greatness or strength.
The echoes of Reagan were undeniable among leaders who hope Trump follows the Gipper’s lead. Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy, advised wisely here, included “peace through strength” in his congratulatory message to Trump. Mike Johnson, the House speaker who approved the $60 billion assistance package to Ukraine earlier this spring, channeled that sentiment on the Mar-a-Lago stage Tuesday night. NATO's new leader Mark Rutte lauded Trump for his “strong” leadership during his first term. Even Vladimir Putin praised Trump on Thursday for acting “bravely as a man” after narrowly escaping an assassination attempt.
Lastly, trade remains a critical test of America’s global economic influence. While Trump has not set the best example, escalating his promises of “beautiful” tariffs, he operates as a real estate mogul: attempting to sell a $1 million property by starting with a $10 million price tag. Will he jeopardize the global economy with recession and inflation through such tariffs? A different approach could mirror his first term, during which he blustered yet renegotiated the Canada-Mexico-U.S. free trade agreement. There was little to no likelihood of either Trump or Harris endorsing sweeping new regional trade agreements. Trump might seek to safeguard both the American and global economies even as Washington tightens economic restrictions on China.
In the months ahead, Trump will engage with the world from a position of strength. It’s challenging to envision a scenario in which he and America withdraw from global affairs. What is unequivocal about Trump is his desire to be at the center of attention.
Jessica Kline contributed to this report for TROIB News
The atmosphere in global capitals this Wednesday morning was quite different, marked by anxiety in many areas and jubilation in others. However, shock was absent; the world has grown accustomed to Trump in power. The same individuals who attended the Brussels party in 2016 have spent months readying themselves for a potential return.
A significant change is that one of America's perceived flaws is its "polarized" and "dysfunctional" politics, a characterization I haven’t heard since Trump’s election was called early. His victory — a decisive sweep of critical swing states, a strong popular vote showing, and what might be a majority in both houses of Congress — undermines the narrative that America is a fading giant hindered by chaotic internal politics despite its vast advantages over rivals.
This election brings clarity: Trump will head a unified party, in stark contrast to 2016, likely leading a cohesive government as well. While this can be labeled in various ways, it does not suggest dysfunction or debilitating polarization for the time being. Trump possesses a mandate; he won’t face a prolonged battle over his victory as he did with the Russia probe. Although he carries legal troubles and the weight of 78 years of habits, Trump is a more potent figure than he was in 2016. Back then, he was viewed with suspicion by Republican leaders and loathed by Democrats, having won the presidency while losing the popular vote by three million ballots. He is now stronger at home, which translates to being stronger abroad.
This political resurgence grants Trump the credibility and leeway on the global stage that he lacked in 2017. However, this does not imply he will conform to conventional standards of being "presidential." “Unpredictable,” is how Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk described Trump earlier this week. While it's uncertain whether this will lead to a more robust U.S., Trump’s isolationist tendencies, his affinity for Vladimir Putin, and his protectionist trade policies are significant concerns borne from a lengthy public career.
What I’m suggesting is that Trump now has the capacity to influence global events in ways he couldn’t before. This is either alarming or exhilarating, contingent upon whether he opts to engage with the world or retreat. As former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt put it, the prevailing sentiment across much of Europe is one of “gloom and despair.” Conversely, British economic historian Niall Ferguson interprets the possibility of Trump as a formidable global figure, identifying a “line of continuity” from Reagan to Trump, who could lead the free world to victory in what he calls “Cold War II.”
The global landscape is more intricate and perilous than the one Trump departed in 2021. In this new Cold War, the U.S. confronts an empowered coalition of authoritarians spearheaded by China, accompanied by a war-engaged Russia in Europe, Iran in the Middle East, and North Korea. These nations convened last month in Kazan, Russia, alongside South Africa and NATO member Turkey, forming a sort of summit for a parallel global order outside U.S. influence.
American allies in Asia and Europe are seeking direction from Washington. Will Trump 47 surprise them? The answer hinges on whether “Make America Great Again” tilts more toward “America First” or “Peace Through Strength,” a choice uniquely his own.
Three immediate tests will be telling: the appointments he makes, his stance on Ukraine, and his approach to global trade restrictions.
Trump’s potential team is diverse. Figures like ex-NSC adviser Robert O’Brien and Florida Senator Marco Rubio advocate for American engagement abroad. Brian Hook, tasked with leading the State Department transition, emerges from that school as well. Conversely, those like Ric Grenell, a former ambassador to Germany and likely candidate for a senior position, are more aligned with Trump’s brash style. Meanwhile, Vice President-elect JD Vance represents the isolationist faction. There are also numerous opportunists; as one Trump-aligned ambassador remarked, “If Trump brings in Johnny McEntee or Kash Patel, we’re all screwed.”
Ukraine will serve as a litmus test for American military and diplomatic prowess, especially from a European perspective. Interestingly, during my recent weeks in Asia, I found Ukraine to be a significant concern there as well. When Asia looks at the U.S. role in Ukraine, they interpret it through the lens of its potential influence on deterring China in East and Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, European eyes are focused on how committed the U.S. will be to NATO and stability along their eastern border with Russia. Clarity is sought by both regions. During his campaign, Trump blamed Volodymyr Zelenskyy for instigating the war and was noncommittal about supporting Ukraine’s victory. He has claimed he wants to end the conflict on his first day; let’s hope this aspiration does not come to fruition. It's simple for Trump and his advisers: Any action that grants Putin a win effectively boosts China, weakening both Europe and the U.S. This outcome does not align with the notion of greatness or strength.
The echoes of Reagan were undeniable among leaders who hope Trump follows the Gipper’s lead. Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy, advised wisely here, included “peace through strength” in his congratulatory message to Trump. Mike Johnson, the House speaker who approved the $60 billion assistance package to Ukraine earlier this spring, channeled that sentiment on the Mar-a-Lago stage Tuesday night. NATO's new leader Mark Rutte lauded Trump for his “strong” leadership during his first term. Even Vladimir Putin praised Trump on Thursday for acting “bravely as a man” after narrowly escaping an assassination attempt.
Lastly, trade remains a critical test of America’s global economic influence. While Trump has not set the best example, escalating his promises of “beautiful” tariffs, he operates as a real estate mogul: attempting to sell a $1 million property by starting with a $10 million price tag. Will he jeopardize the global economy with recession and inflation through such tariffs? A different approach could mirror his first term, during which he blustered yet renegotiated the Canada-Mexico-U.S. free trade agreement. There was little to no likelihood of either Trump or Harris endorsing sweeping new regional trade agreements. Trump might seek to safeguard both the American and global economies even as Washington tightens economic restrictions on China.
In the months ahead, Trump will engage with the world from a position of strength. It’s challenging to envision a scenario in which he and America withdraw from global affairs. What is unequivocal about Trump is his desire to be at the center of attention.
Jessica Kline contributed to this report for TROIB News
