Is There Hope for Florida to Reemerge as a Democratic Battleground? Insights Expected from Tuesday's Primaries.
Primaries are taking place in Florida, Alaska, and Wyoming.
TroibNews 
Democrats in Florida have long aspired to make the state competitive again, and Tuesday’s primaries could provide insights into whether that objective is feasible.
While the Senate seat currently held by Republican Rick Scott isn’t the top priority for Democrats compared to races in states like Montana and Ohio, there is hope that former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell may secure the Democratic nomination. If she does, some party members feel there might be a chance for them in a state where they have faced challenges in recent elections.
Florida is also witnessing several key House races. These include one held by Democrat Rep. Darren Soto and two by Republicans, Reps. Anna Paulina Luna and María Elvira Salazar.
Moreover, one of the notable races isn't a swing seat at all. Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz, known for his controversial role in the ousting of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, is facing a primary challenge. A victory for Gaetz, who has downplayed the concerns over his primary opponent, would undermine McCarthy’s attempts to retaliate against Republicans who went against him.
Primaries are also occurring in Alaska, where Republicans have set their sights on Rep. Mary Peltola, one of the most vulnerable Democrats this election cycle, and in Wyoming, where longtime Republican Sen. John Barrasso faces minimal primary competition.
Here’s what to keep an eye on Tuesday:
— **AK-AL**: Alaska’s nonpartisan top-four primary system somewhat diminishes the suspense of Tuesday’s election, although both sides are strategizing for the consequential general election.
In Alaska, the top four vote winners advance to the general election, regardless of party affiliation. A victor in November will be determined through ranked choice voting, where voters rank candidates. If no candidate secures a majority of first-place votes, the ballots from the lowest performers are reallocated until one hopeful achieves more than half the votes.
Some Republicans believe that the newly implemented voting system contributed to their losses in the past midterms. Critics of ranked choice voting have argued that it’s confusing and that Republican candidates would have fared better if voters hadn't split their support between Republicans Nick Begich and former Gov. Sarah Palin, both of whom fell short against Peltola.
Begich is making another bid, but national Republicans, including former President Donald Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson, have united behind Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom. Despite having grassroots support and a slight fundraising edge, Begich is keenly aware of the need to consolidate Republican votes. He has declared his intention to withdraw if he finishes behind Dahlstrom in order to prevent splitting the Republican vote in November.
Democrats are maneuvering to ensure another Republican captures the fourth spot, anticipating this will ultimately benefit Peltola in the general election. The group Vote Alaska Before Party, connected to Democrats, has invested over $1 million to elevate Dahlstrom, Begich, and Gerald Heikes, a recurrent and lesser-known Republican candidate. A few other Democrats and additional candidates will also be on the ballot.
Peltola represents one of five House Democrats in a district that Trump claimed in 2020, winning Alaska by 10 points.
Polls close between midnight and 1 a.m. Eastern.
— **FL-Sen**: Scott is not only defending his seat but also vying for a promotion to GOP leader. The Democratic primary will determine which candidate has the chance to disrupt both of those ambitions.
Mucarsel-Powell is seen as the frontrunner in the primary, buoyed by strong fundraising and the backing of national Democrats, including President Joe Biden, who publicly endorsed her during a campaign event in Tampa earlier this year.
Mucarsel-Powell’s campaign has concentrated on targeting Scott rather than her fellow Democratic challenger, Stanley Campbell, a tech entrepreneur with some union support.
Meanwhile, Scott has primarily directed his criticisms at Mucarsel-Powell, although he too is facing a primary challenge from Republican Keith Gross, an attorney who previously sought election as a Democrat in Georgia's state House.
— **FL-01**: Unseating Gaetz is central to McCarthy’s efforts for retribution, given that Gaetz played a pivotal role in McCarthy's ousting. Still, it appears Gaetz will likely prevail.
However, financial backing aligned with McCarthy has contributed to the primary being the costliest congressional race in Florida this cycle, with over $5.1 million spent by Gaetz and his challengers. GOP contender Aaron Dimmock, a Navy veteran, faces an uphill battle against Gaetz.
Gaetz has criticized Dimmock as a carpetbagger due to his ongoing employment in Missouri, while also facing scrutiny over allegations related to inappropriate conduct, which he denies. The Department of Justice concluded a investigation concerning Gaetz in February 2023, but a probe by the House Ethics Committee remains ongoing.
The Florida Patriots PAC, a super PAC financed by America Fund, which has also supported other groups opposing GOP adversaries of McCarthy, has invested approximately $3.5 million in ads spotlighting Gaetz's controversies. Yet, that spending has diminished as the primary nears.
— **FL-08**: This predominantly Republican district is the only open seat available in Florida, following the unexpected resignation of Republican Rep. Bill Posey just before the qualifying deadline. Mike Haridopolos, the former Florida Senate president backed by Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis, is the heavy favorite against businessperson John Hearton. The winner of the GOP primary on Tuesday is expected to have a strong chance of heading to Congress.
— **FL-09**: Soto’s seat in Osceola County stands as the singular target for the National Republican Congressional Committee in the state this cycle, though securing it may be difficult unless there is a significant decline in Democratic turnout in November.Tuesday’s primary features three Republicans contesting for a shot at Soto: conservative activist Jose Castillo, former school board member Thomas Chalifoux, and John Quiñones, a former state representative who made history as the first Puerto Rican Republican elected to the Florida Legislature.
— **FL-13**: Five Democrats are competing for the opportunity to challenge Luna, who faces no Republican opposition, in a top target for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Whitney Fox, a former transportation official, leads in fundraising and endorsements. Another contender, Sabrina Bousbar, previously served as a senior adviser on health disaster preparedness and, if elected, would become the first female Gen Z member of Congress.
— **FL-27**: The DCCC is also targeting Salazar’s seat, which is a highly competitive and predominantly Hispanic district. Critics have already challenged Salazar regarding her opposition to certain spending bills. The Democratic primary features Lucia Báez-Geller, a progressive Miami-Dade school board member, and more centrist former Key Biscayne mayor Mike Davey.
Most polls in Florida will close at 7 p.m. Eastern, with the latest deadlines set for 8 p.m. Eastern.
— **WY-Sen**: Barrasso, the third-ranking Senate Republican, is not thought to be at significant risk from his primary challengers, yet he is not taking any chances.
Having served since 2007, Barrasso has considerably outspent his opponents, investing more than $300,000 in advertising according to AdImpact. Additionally, he has support from Trump and the pro-Barrasso High Plains PAC, which has contributed close to $400,000 on ads leading up to the primary.
Reid Rasner, a financial adviser who has funneled over $1 million into his campaign, could have posed the fiercest challenge. Nonetheless, he has struggled to gain traction and has faced backlash from local Republicans, including Rep. Harriet Hageman, for suggesting their support.
Barrasso has previously confronted primary challenges and emerged successfully each time.
Polls in Wyoming will close at 9 p.m. Eastern.
A version of this story appeared in PMG Pro’s Morning Score newsletter and Florida Playbook. Sign up for PMG Pro.
Thomas Evans contributed to this report for TROIB News
While the Senate seat currently held by Republican Rick Scott isn’t the top priority for Democrats compared to races in states like Montana and Ohio, there is hope that former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell may secure the Democratic nomination. If she does, some party members feel there might be a chance for them in a state where they have faced challenges in recent elections.
Florida is also witnessing several key House races. These include one held by Democrat Rep. Darren Soto and two by Republicans, Reps. Anna Paulina Luna and María Elvira Salazar.
Moreover, one of the notable races isn't a swing seat at all. Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz, known for his controversial role in the ousting of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, is facing a primary challenge. A victory for Gaetz, who has downplayed the concerns over his primary opponent, would undermine McCarthy’s attempts to retaliate against Republicans who went against him.
Primaries are also occurring in Alaska, where Republicans have set their sights on Rep. Mary Peltola, one of the most vulnerable Democrats this election cycle, and in Wyoming, where longtime Republican Sen. John Barrasso faces minimal primary competition.
Here’s what to keep an eye on Tuesday:
— **AK-AL**: Alaska’s nonpartisan top-four primary system somewhat diminishes the suspense of Tuesday’s election, although both sides are strategizing for the consequential general election.
In Alaska, the top four vote winners advance to the general election, regardless of party affiliation. A victor in November will be determined through ranked choice voting, where voters rank candidates. If no candidate secures a majority of first-place votes, the ballots from the lowest performers are reallocated until one hopeful achieves more than half the votes.
Some Republicans believe that the newly implemented voting system contributed to their losses in the past midterms. Critics of ranked choice voting have argued that it’s confusing and that Republican candidates would have fared better if voters hadn't split their support between Republicans Nick Begich and former Gov. Sarah Palin, both of whom fell short against Peltola.
Begich is making another bid, but national Republicans, including former President Donald Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson, have united behind Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom. Despite having grassroots support and a slight fundraising edge, Begich is keenly aware of the need to consolidate Republican votes. He has declared his intention to withdraw if he finishes behind Dahlstrom in order to prevent splitting the Republican vote in November.
Democrats are maneuvering to ensure another Republican captures the fourth spot, anticipating this will ultimately benefit Peltola in the general election. The group Vote Alaska Before Party, connected to Democrats, has invested over $1 million to elevate Dahlstrom, Begich, and Gerald Heikes, a recurrent and lesser-known Republican candidate. A few other Democrats and additional candidates will also be on the ballot.
Peltola represents one of five House Democrats in a district that Trump claimed in 2020, winning Alaska by 10 points.
Polls close between midnight and 1 a.m. Eastern.
— **FL-Sen**: Scott is not only defending his seat but also vying for a promotion to GOP leader. The Democratic primary will determine which candidate has the chance to disrupt both of those ambitions.
Mucarsel-Powell is seen as the frontrunner in the primary, buoyed by strong fundraising and the backing of national Democrats, including President Joe Biden, who publicly endorsed her during a campaign event in Tampa earlier this year.
Mucarsel-Powell’s campaign has concentrated on targeting Scott rather than her fellow Democratic challenger, Stanley Campbell, a tech entrepreneur with some union support.
Meanwhile, Scott has primarily directed his criticisms at Mucarsel-Powell, although he too is facing a primary challenge from Republican Keith Gross, an attorney who previously sought election as a Democrat in Georgia's state House.
— **FL-01**: Unseating Gaetz is central to McCarthy’s efforts for retribution, given that Gaetz played a pivotal role in McCarthy's ousting. Still, it appears Gaetz will likely prevail.
However, financial backing aligned with McCarthy has contributed to the primary being the costliest congressional race in Florida this cycle, with over $5.1 million spent by Gaetz and his challengers. GOP contender Aaron Dimmock, a Navy veteran, faces an uphill battle against Gaetz.
Gaetz has criticized Dimmock as a carpetbagger due to his ongoing employment in Missouri, while also facing scrutiny over allegations related to inappropriate conduct, which he denies. The Department of Justice concluded a investigation concerning Gaetz in February 2023, but a probe by the House Ethics Committee remains ongoing.
The Florida Patriots PAC, a super PAC financed by America Fund, which has also supported other groups opposing GOP adversaries of McCarthy, has invested approximately $3.5 million in ads spotlighting Gaetz's controversies. Yet, that spending has diminished as the primary nears.
— **FL-08**: This predominantly Republican district is the only open seat available in Florida, following the unexpected resignation of Republican Rep. Bill Posey just before the qualifying deadline. Mike Haridopolos, the former Florida Senate president backed by Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis, is the heavy favorite against businessperson John Hearton. The winner of the GOP primary on Tuesday is expected to have a strong chance of heading to Congress.
— **FL-09**: Soto’s seat in Osceola County stands as the singular target for the National Republican Congressional Committee in the state this cycle, though securing it may be difficult unless there is a significant decline in Democratic turnout in November.Tuesday’s primary features three Republicans contesting for a shot at Soto: conservative activist Jose Castillo, former school board member Thomas Chalifoux, and John Quiñones, a former state representative who made history as the first Puerto Rican Republican elected to the Florida Legislature.
— **FL-13**: Five Democrats are competing for the opportunity to challenge Luna, who faces no Republican opposition, in a top target for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Whitney Fox, a former transportation official, leads in fundraising and endorsements. Another contender, Sabrina Bousbar, previously served as a senior adviser on health disaster preparedness and, if elected, would become the first female Gen Z member of Congress.
— **FL-27**: The DCCC is also targeting Salazar’s seat, which is a highly competitive and predominantly Hispanic district. Critics have already challenged Salazar regarding her opposition to certain spending bills. The Democratic primary features Lucia Báez-Geller, a progressive Miami-Dade school board member, and more centrist former Key Biscayne mayor Mike Davey.
Most polls in Florida will close at 7 p.m. Eastern, with the latest deadlines set for 8 p.m. Eastern.
— **WY-Sen**: Barrasso, the third-ranking Senate Republican, is not thought to be at significant risk from his primary challengers, yet he is not taking any chances.
Having served since 2007, Barrasso has considerably outspent his opponents, investing more than $300,000 in advertising according to AdImpact. Additionally, he has support from Trump and the pro-Barrasso High Plains PAC, which has contributed close to $400,000 on ads leading up to the primary.
Reid Rasner, a financial adviser who has funneled over $1 million into his campaign, could have posed the fiercest challenge. Nonetheless, he has struggled to gain traction and has faced backlash from local Republicans, including Rep. Harriet Hageman, for suggesting their support.
Barrasso has previously confronted primary challenges and emerged successfully each time.
Polls in Wyoming will close at 9 p.m. Eastern.
A version of this story appeared in PMG Pro’s Morning Score newsletter and Florida Playbook. Sign up for PMG Pro.
Thomas Evans contributed to this report for TROIB News
