Haley’s got the momentum — as well as the spotlight, expectations and pitfalls that come with it

WAUKEE, Iowa — When Nikki Haley takes the stage Wednesday night for the last debate before the Iowa caucus, the only opponent she will face will be Ron DeSantis.

But another, perhaps more daunting challenge, will be looming. Expectations are exceedingly high for Haley, a byproduct of steady growth in the polls and her campaign’s own positioning of her as the last remaining primary threat to former President Donald Trump.

Her goal on Wednesday is not just to show up DeSantis in a state where he has staked the survival of his campaign, but to keep that aura of momentum going. A slip up could endanger it all.

“She’s been a momentum candidate,” said David Kochel, a veteran Republican strategist from Iowa, pointing to how the early debates helped create Haley’s surge. “The debate is an opportunity for her to keep that going, particularly after a couple of weeks where she’s had a little added scrutiny.

“She’s got quite a bit at stake.”

Even if Haley were to have a standout night, she still has a difficult path ahead. Trump maintains a substantial lead in Iowa and national polls, and is quite literally campaigning on a different stage from the competition — taking part in a separate town hall Wednesday night on another network.

But if anyone at this point is likely to nip him, even Trump’s allies concede it is his former United Nations ambassador. Her prospects in Iowa have continued to improve in recent weeks, and for the first time since launching her candidacy 11 months ago, she is tied with DeSantis for second-place in the state, according to recent polling averages.

Her gains here have come after her team’s increased spending. In just the last month, Haley and her allies have spent more than $15 million on television in Iowa, dwarfing the combined ad buys of Trump, DeSantis and their aligned groups. The expectations for her, as a result, have risen.

Past debates have benefitted Haley, boosting her not only with voters but, perhaps as importantly, the anti-Trump class of GOP donors. But Wednesday will be the first head-to-head showing between her and DeSantis, though the two have sparred for months over their remarks on China, foreign aid and other issues.

“I’m sure there will be a lot of undecided people watching” the televised showdown Wednesday, said Ron Forsell, the former chair of the Dallas County Republican Party, who has endorsed Haley ahead of the caucus. Echoing New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, who is backing Haley, Forsell predicted that she “is going to finish second” in the caucus on Monday, despite being locked in a tight race with DeSantis.

While the main audience Haley is trying to reach on Wednesday is Iowa Republicans, her campaign also has one eye on the state that comes next. Haley has become the only Republican to close in on Trump’s significant lead, with a recent poll in New Hampshire showing a single-digit gap between the two.

But falling behind DeSantis in Iowa could blunt her momentum both in New Hampshire and, eventually, in her home state of South Carolina, where Trump remains nearly 30 points ahead. DeSantis has slid in polls across the early states, including in Iowa, even as he has focused nearly all of his resources in the Hawkeye State. DeSantis secured the endorsement of key officials here, including the Republican governor, held events in all 99 counties and had his super PAC oversee a monthslong major door-knocking operation.

“DeSantis has gone all-in, burning through $150 million and repeatedly saying he’s going to win Iowa,” said Haley spokesperson Olivia Perez-Cubas. “Let’s see how that works out for him.”

Sensing Haley’s momentum, the Florida governor has sought to stop her rise in the state. His campaign’s “closing TV ad” ahead of the caucuses opens with an attack on Haley.

In recent days, his team has also sent a series of anti-Haley text messages to Iowa voters, including a video of Haley’s comments about New Hampshire voters needing to “correct” Iowa Republicans’ caucus results, as well as text messages hitting Haley on her comments about the cause of the Civil War. Haley’s super PAC, for their part, are running their own anti-DeSantis ads on television.

DeSantis’ advisers have not hidden their belief that the debate could prove a staging ground for him to catapult Haley in the eyes of voters.

“This time Nikki Haley won’t be able to hide behind Chris Christie and use Vivek as her personal punching bag,” said a DeSantis campaign official granted anonymity to speak freely. “She’ll actually have to be accountable for her recent string of gaffes and record of caving to the left on every major issue conservatives care about.”

Still, the attacks have underscored one element of the primary that has worked in Trump’s favor. He has managed to maintain a robust lead in the polls, while watching his GOP rivals go after each other, rather than him. And the scale of his events — some of which have drawn thousands of people from across Iowa waiting hours to see him — demonstrates the loyalty of his supporters, while the other candidates continue to fight to convince the remaining electorate.

In interview after interview with attendees at Haley’s Tuesday morning event at Mickey’s Irish Pub in Waukee, a wealthy suburb of Des Moines, nearly every person said their caucus decision was one between Haley and DeSantis — though they all agreed that Haley was likely to get their support.

Terry Snyder, a 70-year-old Republican from Waukee who supported Trump in the 2016 caucuses, said she was leaning toward Haley and is still considering DeSantis and had even attended an event for Asa Hutchinson over the weekend.

After Haley’s quick, 15-minute stump speech inside the restaurant, Snyder still said Haley was her top pick, though she appeared cynical about the whole affair. “Everything she said was good,” Snyder said. “I just want to know how she’s actually going to do it. How?”

“I’ll probably caucus for her,” Snyder said. “Ron DeSantis — there’s just something in my gut that tells me ‘no.’”

It remains to be seen whether Haley’s ground game — only recently spearheaded by the conservative group Americans For Prosperity — will succeed in mobilizing supporters to caucus for her in Monday’s forecasted sub-zero, historically low temperatures. By contrast, Never Back Down, a super PAC supporting DeSantis, has for months touted its doorknocking program in Iowa, boasting nearly 40,000 caucus commitment cards signed and more than 915,000 doors knocked in the state. The Trump campaign likewise has reported a recent increase in outreach activity from its grassroots volunteer network.

During Haley’s Monday night televised town hall on Fox News, audience members acknowledged they were still making up their minds on who they would support. When the hosts asked if Haley had swayed them, a brief camera shot of the crowd showed moderate applause mixed with blank stares.

After Haley’s event Tuesday inside the Irish pub, a plastic cereal container intended to collect caucus commitment cards revealed only a handful, though a campaign worker said that there were more completed cards elsewhere.