Europe adjusts Ukraine policy as Trump advocates for war termination
This year's assembly of defense leaders may signal the future of the beleaguered nation.
TroibNews 
The approach toward Ukraine is subtly evolving in Europe, aligning with the changing perspective of the United States — transitioning from unwavering support to a strategy aimed at bringing Kyiv to the negotiating table from a position of strength.
This new direction will be prominently featured at the Munich Security Conference this week, a major assembly of defense leaders globally.
This marks a significant shift from the Biden administration's stance, where the conference underscored a commitment to Ukraine with the message that support would last, as former President Joe Biden frequently stated, “as long as it takes.” While European nations continue to assert their support for Ukraine three years into Russia's invasion, discussions at this weekend's conference may foreshadow the country's future trajectory.
“How [Europeans] position themselves… to be at the table rather than being on the menu,” remarked Camille Grand, a former NATO assistant secretary general. “That's the whole debate.”
In a sign that European leaders are adjusting to President Donald Trump’s intention to end the conflict, they are showcasing their military strength to position themselves as key players in peace negotiations.
French President Emmanuel Macron mentioned to his ambassadors in January, “if we decide to be weak and defeatist, there's little chance of being respected by President Trump's United States of America.” Meanwhile, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer indicated he would be open to sending British peacekeeping troops to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire shortly after Trump’s inauguration. Other European partners are expressing similar willingness.
Trump's pledge to conclude the war in a day, alongside his administration's promise to do so within his first 100 days, raises the stakes for the upcoming conference. Vice President JD Vance is anticipated to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy there, according to sources acquainted with the plans.
However, Vance has voiced skepticism about U.S. support for Ukraine and did not participate in a bipartisan Senate delegation meeting with Zelenskyy at last year's conference. Instead, he used the event's final day to argue for a focus on the Indo-Pacific.
“We can’t support Ukraine and the Middle East and contingencies in East Asia,” Vance stated during a February 2024 conference.
Conversely, Vice President Kamala Harris has visited Bavaria to meet with Zelenskyy on three occasions, including days before Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
“We will, for the moment, take the lead if the Americans don’t,” one European military official remarked, speaking on the condition of anonymity regarding private discussions.
The U.K. has temporarily assumed control of the Ukraine Defense Contract Group, initially established by former Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to coordinate military assistance from various nations to Ukraine. Additionally, NATO has initiated a security and training mission to reinforce its support for Ukraine’s military amid concerns over a potential reduction in U.S. backing.
Despite the changing rhetoric from NATO allies, a crucial point remains: they emphasize that it should be Ukraine’s decision when to negotiate.
“It’s always been important that Ukraine come to the decision, because it’s their country,” stated Canadian Defense Minister Bill Blair. “We're looking for a way to have a ceasefire, to restore some peace and security, but with longer-term security arrangements for Ukraine.”
Ahead of the conference, discussions have occurred between the U.S. and Ukraine regarding longer-term security guarantees. These could involve weapons and intelligence capabilities like satellites that European nations are unable to provide. Trump has also suggested potentially trading some of Ukraine’s valuable mineral resources for U.S. assistance.
The front lines between Russia and Ukraine have largely remained unchanged for over a year, with Ukraine controlling parts of the Kursk region for nearly six months. However, Russia has gradually advanced its position, and reports suggest the Kremlin is preparing to welcome reinforcements from North Korea to bolster its diminished forces, following Pyongyang’s agreement to send troops to the conflict area last year.
The Trump administration will need to persuade skeptics that any peace agreement won’t simply allow Putin's army the opportunity to regroup for a future invasion.
Putin “wants help in getting up off the mat,” remarked H.R. McMaster, who was Trump’s national security adviser during his first term. “Right now, because he's in a profoundly weak position, we should not help him get up off the mat.”
Zelenskyy has expressed a need for up to 200,000 peacekeepers to monitor a potential demilitarized zone. With some officials still optimistic about receiving additional commitments for aid, including enhanced air defenses, discussions continue.
“Without weapons deliveries from the U.S., I think we will have huge problems on the battlefield,” warned Yehor Cherniev, a member of Ukraine’s parliament from Zelenskyy’s Servant of the People party.
Ukrainian officials remained reserved leading up to the conference, despite having extensive discussions with American and European counterparts. Andrii Yermak, head of the presidential office, engaged with national security adviser Michael Waltz and Keith Kellogg, Trump’s envoy for Russia and Ukraine, according to Heorhii Tykhyi, spokesperson for Ukraine's foreign ministry.
Officials in Kyiv anticipate that the Munich conference will not yield immediate breakthroughs but see it as an opportunity to articulate Ukraine's position.
“This Munich is not so important because of the potential presentation of some plans, but as an opportunity to convey Ukraine's position on this issue at the highest level,” Tykhyi told reporters in Kyiv.
Moscow's stance remains cautious as well. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin indicated that officials are awaiting specific proposals from the Trump administration.
“It is important that words are supported by practical steps that take into account Russia's legitimate interests, demonstrate a willingness to root out the root causes of the crisis and recognize new realities,” Galuzin explained to reporters on Monday. “No specific proposals of this nature have been received yet."
The meetings with Vance are expected to serve as informal assessments for the Ukrainians as they gauge who among the Trump administration may be supportive.
“I just want to think that the Trump administration clearly understands that if Ukraine will stop, the war will not stop,” Cherniev expressed. “If Russia will stop, the war will end.”
Contributions to this report were made by Veronika Melkozerova and Daniel Lippman.
Sophie Wagner contributed to this report for TROIB News
This new direction will be prominently featured at the Munich Security Conference this week, a major assembly of defense leaders globally.
This marks a significant shift from the Biden administration's stance, where the conference underscored a commitment to Ukraine with the message that support would last, as former President Joe Biden frequently stated, “as long as it takes.” While European nations continue to assert their support for Ukraine three years into Russia's invasion, discussions at this weekend's conference may foreshadow the country's future trajectory.
“How [Europeans] position themselves… to be at the table rather than being on the menu,” remarked Camille Grand, a former NATO assistant secretary general. “That's the whole debate.”
In a sign that European leaders are adjusting to President Donald Trump’s intention to end the conflict, they are showcasing their military strength to position themselves as key players in peace negotiations.
French President Emmanuel Macron mentioned to his ambassadors in January, “if we decide to be weak and defeatist, there's little chance of being respected by President Trump's United States of America.” Meanwhile, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer indicated he would be open to sending British peacekeeping troops to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire shortly after Trump’s inauguration. Other European partners are expressing similar willingness.
Trump's pledge to conclude the war in a day, alongside his administration's promise to do so within his first 100 days, raises the stakes for the upcoming conference. Vice President JD Vance is anticipated to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy there, according to sources acquainted with the plans.
However, Vance has voiced skepticism about U.S. support for Ukraine and did not participate in a bipartisan Senate delegation meeting with Zelenskyy at last year's conference. Instead, he used the event's final day to argue for a focus on the Indo-Pacific.
“We can’t support Ukraine and the Middle East and contingencies in East Asia,” Vance stated during a February 2024 conference.
Conversely, Vice President Kamala Harris has visited Bavaria to meet with Zelenskyy on three occasions, including days before Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
“We will, for the moment, take the lead if the Americans don’t,” one European military official remarked, speaking on the condition of anonymity regarding private discussions.
The U.K. has temporarily assumed control of the Ukraine Defense Contract Group, initially established by former Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to coordinate military assistance from various nations to Ukraine. Additionally, NATO has initiated a security and training mission to reinforce its support for Ukraine’s military amid concerns over a potential reduction in U.S. backing.
Despite the changing rhetoric from NATO allies, a crucial point remains: they emphasize that it should be Ukraine’s decision when to negotiate.
“It’s always been important that Ukraine come to the decision, because it’s their country,” stated Canadian Defense Minister Bill Blair. “We're looking for a way to have a ceasefire, to restore some peace and security, but with longer-term security arrangements for Ukraine.”
Ahead of the conference, discussions have occurred between the U.S. and Ukraine regarding longer-term security guarantees. These could involve weapons and intelligence capabilities like satellites that European nations are unable to provide. Trump has also suggested potentially trading some of Ukraine’s valuable mineral resources for U.S. assistance.
The front lines between Russia and Ukraine have largely remained unchanged for over a year, with Ukraine controlling parts of the Kursk region for nearly six months. However, Russia has gradually advanced its position, and reports suggest the Kremlin is preparing to welcome reinforcements from North Korea to bolster its diminished forces, following Pyongyang’s agreement to send troops to the conflict area last year.
The Trump administration will need to persuade skeptics that any peace agreement won’t simply allow Putin's army the opportunity to regroup for a future invasion.
Putin “wants help in getting up off the mat,” remarked H.R. McMaster, who was Trump’s national security adviser during his first term. “Right now, because he's in a profoundly weak position, we should not help him get up off the mat.”
Zelenskyy has expressed a need for up to 200,000 peacekeepers to monitor a potential demilitarized zone. With some officials still optimistic about receiving additional commitments for aid, including enhanced air defenses, discussions continue.
“Without weapons deliveries from the U.S., I think we will have huge problems on the battlefield,” warned Yehor Cherniev, a member of Ukraine’s parliament from Zelenskyy’s Servant of the People party.
Ukrainian officials remained reserved leading up to the conference, despite having extensive discussions with American and European counterparts. Andrii Yermak, head of the presidential office, engaged with national security adviser Michael Waltz and Keith Kellogg, Trump’s envoy for Russia and Ukraine, according to Heorhii Tykhyi, spokesperson for Ukraine's foreign ministry.
Officials in Kyiv anticipate that the Munich conference will not yield immediate breakthroughs but see it as an opportunity to articulate Ukraine's position.
“This Munich is not so important because of the potential presentation of some plans, but as an opportunity to convey Ukraine's position on this issue at the highest level,” Tykhyi told reporters in Kyiv.
Moscow's stance remains cautious as well. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin indicated that officials are awaiting specific proposals from the Trump administration.
“It is important that words are supported by practical steps that take into account Russia's legitimate interests, demonstrate a willingness to root out the root causes of the crisis and recognize new realities,” Galuzin explained to reporters on Monday. “No specific proposals of this nature have been received yet."
The meetings with Vance are expected to serve as informal assessments for the Ukrainians as they gauge who among the Trump administration may be supportive.
“I just want to think that the Trump administration clearly understands that if Ukraine will stop, the war will not stop,” Cherniev expressed. “If Russia will stop, the war will end.”
Contributions to this report were made by Veronika Melkozerova and Daniel Lippman.
Sophie Wagner contributed to this report for TROIB News
