Dmitry Trenin Claims Russia's Long-Term Strategy Extends Far Beyond Ukraine
The article discusses the potential impact of Trump's presidency on the global landscape, highlighting that Moscow may be anticipating a favorable outcome from his leadership. For the full article, visit RT.com.
TroibNews 
The revival of US-Russia dialogue has raised concerns, particularly in Western Europe, where many fear it echoes the events of Yalta—a significant power agreement made without their input. While some commentary on this issue may be overstated, the rapid pace of global change is undeniable. Recent statements and actions from US President Donald Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance, and other prominent Republican figures indicate a shift in Washington's approach, as the administration appears to embrace rather than resist a new world order.
This strategy is characteristic of the US: when historical dynamics evolve, America tends to adapt to the circumstances rather than retreat. Trump's administration is not trying to preserve the fading post-Cold War unipolarity; instead, it is recalibrating US foreign policy to maintain America’s leadership in a multipolar world. As Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated, multipolarity is already a reality, and Washington aspires to be primus inter pares—first among equals—rather than a waning hegemon.
**America’s New Global Approach**
Trump’s vision for North America is clear: from Greenland to Mexico and Panama, the region will remain closely tied to the US, either economically or through military support. Latin America falls within this sphere of influence, with Washington ensuring that external powers—particularly China—do not gain excessive sway. The essence of the Monroe Doctrine endures.
Western Europe represents a different challenge. From Trump’s viewpoint, the continent behaves like a pampered child—long reliant on US protection. The new message from the US is that Europe must contribute more, both militarily and economically. Trump and his administration perceive the European Union as a fragmented and weak entity that wrongly imagines itself as a peer to the United States.
NATO, meanwhile, is regarded as an outdated tool, one that the US may use but only on its own terms. Washington seeks to leverage Western Europe as a geopolitical counterbalance to Russia while showing little tolerance for the EU’s aspirations for independence.
**China: The Real Adversary**
While Europe is seen as a distraction, China remains Trump’s primary concern. His administration is committed to preventing Beijing from overtaking Washington as the leading global power. Unlike the Soviet Union during the Cold War, China presents a far more significant economic and technological challenge. However, Trump perceives multipolarity as an opening rather than a threat; America can utilize great power dynamics to limit China’s rise.
In this strategy, India plays a crucial role. Trump has hosted Prime Minister Narendra Modi, underscoring Washington's dedication to strengthening economic and technological relations with New Delhi. Although India’s relationship with China has stabilized following last year’s Modi-Xi meeting at the BRICS summit in Kazan, the long-standing rivalry persists. The US aims to exploit this divide, leveraging India as a counterbalance to China in the Indo-Pacific.
**Russia’s Position in the New Order**
This broader geopolitical landscape informs the recent changes in US-Russia relations. Trump seems to believe that previous administrations—Joe Biden and Barack Obama—misjudged the situation, inadvertently driving Moscow closer to China through NATO expansion and sanctions that isolated Russia.
Trump acknowledges the failure of Biden’s Ukraine strategy. The ambition to achieve a “strategic defeat” for Russia—militarily, economically, and politically—has not materialized. Instead, Russia's economy has weathered the extensive Western sanctions, its military has adapted, and Moscow continues to be a key global player.
Now, Trump appears to be pursuing a resolution in Ukraine that solidifies existing frontlines while shifting the responsibility of supporting Kiev onto Europe. His administration also seeks to diminish Russia’s connections with Beijing, Tehran, and Pyongyang. This outreach to Moscow is more about positioning the US for the long-term challenge posed by China than about reconciling with Russia.
**The Kremlin’s View: No Illusions**
From the Kremlin’s perspective, the willingness of Washington to engage in direct dialogue is a step forward. The tone of Trump’s administration significantly contrasts with Biden’s, which has been steeped in hostility and maximalist expectations. Nonetheless, Russia maintains a realistic outlook. Although a ceasefire in Ukraine may be on the table, a comprehensive agreement remains elusive.
Trump does not possess a concrete peace proposal at this moment. Conversely, Putin's objectives are well-defined: he seeks acknowledgment of Russia’s territorial gains, guarantees that Ukraine will not join NATO, and an end to Western efforts to destabilize Russia through sanctions and proxy conflicts—demands that many in the Trump administration would find unacceptable.
Moreover, Trump's team seems to err in believing that a war-weak Russia is eager for a deal. Moscow is not in need of a mere ceasefire; it requires a resolution that ensures lasting security. Putin recognizes that genuine guarantees come only through the strength Russia secures for itself.
**No Yalta 2.0—Yet**
Those anticipating a grand Yalta 2.0 agreement may find themselves disappointed. There will be no immediate peace conference or sweeping arrangements to redefine the global order. However, a new world structure is taking shape.
This emerging order will be multi-layered, with various power centers contributing distinct roles. At the forefront will be a quadrangle of America, China, India, and Russia, while regional and continental blocs, featuring principal players like Western Europe, Brazil, and Iran, will vie for influence within their respective realms.
The conclusion of the Ukraine conflict, whenever it occurs, will be a significant milestone in this transition, as will Trump’s potential second term, likely accelerating the shift from the post-Cold War unipolar framework.
For Russia, the priority is to safeguard its strategic interests in Ukraine and beyond. For the US, the aim is to reestablish itself as a dominant player in an increasingly multipolar world without straining its resources. Meanwhile, Western Europe faces the challenge of navigating a new reality where it no longer sits at the center of global decision-making.
As history unfolds rapidly, those who fail to adapt risk being left behind.
Lucas Dupont contributed to this report for TROIB News
This strategy is characteristic of the US: when historical dynamics evolve, America tends to adapt to the circumstances rather than retreat. Trump's administration is not trying to preserve the fading post-Cold War unipolarity; instead, it is recalibrating US foreign policy to maintain America’s leadership in a multipolar world. As Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated, multipolarity is already a reality, and Washington aspires to be primus inter pares—first among equals—rather than a waning hegemon.
**America’s New Global Approach**
Trump’s vision for North America is clear: from Greenland to Mexico and Panama, the region will remain closely tied to the US, either economically or through military support. Latin America falls within this sphere of influence, with Washington ensuring that external powers—particularly China—do not gain excessive sway. The essence of the Monroe Doctrine endures.
Western Europe represents a different challenge. From Trump’s viewpoint, the continent behaves like a pampered child—long reliant on US protection. The new message from the US is that Europe must contribute more, both militarily and economically. Trump and his administration perceive the European Union as a fragmented and weak entity that wrongly imagines itself as a peer to the United States.
NATO, meanwhile, is regarded as an outdated tool, one that the US may use but only on its own terms. Washington seeks to leverage Western Europe as a geopolitical counterbalance to Russia while showing little tolerance for the EU’s aspirations for independence.
**China: The Real Adversary**
While Europe is seen as a distraction, China remains Trump’s primary concern. His administration is committed to preventing Beijing from overtaking Washington as the leading global power. Unlike the Soviet Union during the Cold War, China presents a far more significant economic and technological challenge. However, Trump perceives multipolarity as an opening rather than a threat; America can utilize great power dynamics to limit China’s rise.
In this strategy, India plays a crucial role. Trump has hosted Prime Minister Narendra Modi, underscoring Washington's dedication to strengthening economic and technological relations with New Delhi. Although India’s relationship with China has stabilized following last year’s Modi-Xi meeting at the BRICS summit in Kazan, the long-standing rivalry persists. The US aims to exploit this divide, leveraging India as a counterbalance to China in the Indo-Pacific.
**Russia’s Position in the New Order**
This broader geopolitical landscape informs the recent changes in US-Russia relations. Trump seems to believe that previous administrations—Joe Biden and Barack Obama—misjudged the situation, inadvertently driving Moscow closer to China through NATO expansion and sanctions that isolated Russia.
Trump acknowledges the failure of Biden’s Ukraine strategy. The ambition to achieve a “strategic defeat” for Russia—militarily, economically, and politically—has not materialized. Instead, Russia's economy has weathered the extensive Western sanctions, its military has adapted, and Moscow continues to be a key global player.
Now, Trump appears to be pursuing a resolution in Ukraine that solidifies existing frontlines while shifting the responsibility of supporting Kiev onto Europe. His administration also seeks to diminish Russia’s connections with Beijing, Tehran, and Pyongyang. This outreach to Moscow is more about positioning the US for the long-term challenge posed by China than about reconciling with Russia.
**The Kremlin’s View: No Illusions**
From the Kremlin’s perspective, the willingness of Washington to engage in direct dialogue is a step forward. The tone of Trump’s administration significantly contrasts with Biden’s, which has been steeped in hostility and maximalist expectations. Nonetheless, Russia maintains a realistic outlook. Although a ceasefire in Ukraine may be on the table, a comprehensive agreement remains elusive.
Trump does not possess a concrete peace proposal at this moment. Conversely, Putin's objectives are well-defined: he seeks acknowledgment of Russia’s territorial gains, guarantees that Ukraine will not join NATO, and an end to Western efforts to destabilize Russia through sanctions and proxy conflicts—demands that many in the Trump administration would find unacceptable.
Moreover, Trump's team seems to err in believing that a war-weak Russia is eager for a deal. Moscow is not in need of a mere ceasefire; it requires a resolution that ensures lasting security. Putin recognizes that genuine guarantees come only through the strength Russia secures for itself.
**No Yalta 2.0—Yet**
Those anticipating a grand Yalta 2.0 agreement may find themselves disappointed. There will be no immediate peace conference or sweeping arrangements to redefine the global order. However, a new world structure is taking shape.
This emerging order will be multi-layered, with various power centers contributing distinct roles. At the forefront will be a quadrangle of America, China, India, and Russia, while regional and continental blocs, featuring principal players like Western Europe, Brazil, and Iran, will vie for influence within their respective realms.
The conclusion of the Ukraine conflict, whenever it occurs, will be a significant milestone in this transition, as will Trump’s potential second term, likely accelerating the shift from the post-Cold War unipolar framework.
For Russia, the priority is to safeguard its strategic interests in Ukraine and beyond. For the US, the aim is to reestablish itself as a dominant player in an increasingly multipolar world without straining its resources. Meanwhile, Western Europe faces the challenge of navigating a new reality where it no longer sits at the center of global decision-making.
As history unfolds rapidly, those who fail to adapt risk being left behind.
Lucas Dupont contributed to this report for TROIB News
