Why Trump Secured the Election Victory and His Potential Next Steps
Regardless of personal opinions, the controversial Republican's comeback to office signifies an important turning point – the future direction is yet to be determined. Read Full Article at RT.com
Donald Trump has emerged victorious in the US election, transitioning from his tenure as the 45th president from 2017 to 2021 to now claiming the title of the 47th president. He not only defeated Kamala Harris but did so decisively. Harris's defeat was so overwhelming that she chose not to address her supporters at the customary election celebration, opting instead to leave quietly.
In his victory speech, Trump proclaimed to his supporters that they—alongside himself—had "made history," a statement that is likely accurate.
While the phrase “the most important election in our lifetime” has become a cliché in political discourse, Trump’s second win is indeed exceptional. He is the first president since the 1880s to secure a second term following a hiatus from office, making this return noteworthy. However, what makes Trump's comeback particularly significant is the unusual context in which it arises.
The world is witnessing a shift in power dynamics, potentially signaling the decline of American supremacy as a new multipolar global order emerges. Understanding this backdrop is essential to grasping the Trump Phenomenon.
It is undeniable that Trump embodies a notable political phenomenon. Personally, I have little sympathy for his political views, and as a socialist, he would likely not have any for mine. Nonetheless, denying the skilled political instincts of this brash real-estate mogul and former reality TV star would be misguided. This talent does not categorize him as inherently good or bad; rather, it ensures that his influence will continue to be profound.
Reflecting on history, we may have become somewhat desensitized to Trump's rise, forgetting just how remarkable it has been. To recount briefly: since 2011, he has infiltrated the US political arena, dominating its traditional power structures. His influence has catalyzed significant changes within the Republican Party, transforming it into his personal domain.
Despite predictions to the contrary, he completed a full term as president, enduring intense media scrutiny and opposition from established power. Now, the “twice-impeached semi-pariah” of 2021 has orchestrated a remarkable resurgence, facing even greater challenges this time around, including assassination attempts and legal battles that seemingly had little impact on his political trajectory.
One doesn’t have to admire Trump to recognize the distinct imprint of exceptional political talent in his journey; such consistent fortune does not occur by chance.
All indications suggest Trump is far from finished. His campaign for the presidency was not merely an act of revenge for his 2020 defeat and subsequent harassment. While his narcissistic tendencies surely motivate him, this quest is more than just about personal grudges.
At its core lies a fervent desire to transform the US politically and culturally, as well as redefine its global relationships. The extent to which he will achieve this goal remains to be seen. Trumpism appears to be more organized this time, as even critics in the Economist have acknowledged. Ultimately, only time will reveal the outcome, but what is evident is Trump’s determination to press forward without resting on his past achievements.
To explore the factors behind Trump’s resurgence and the Democratic Party's significant defeat, one might recall rare predictions made in 2021—one notably from this author—suggesting that a Biden presidency could serve as a launching pad for Trump’s comeback.
Others may point to more straightforward reasons: President Joe Biden's evident decline; the dubious ethical practices surrounding the Biden family; the misguided deep involvement in the costly proxy war against Russia in Ukraine; and the prioritization of that conflict over the well-being of ordinary Americans. Criticism has also been directed at Kamala Harris, whose ill-fated bid for the spotlight relied on tactless rhetoric and alliances that alienated many demographics.
Moreover, the administration’s overt complicity in Israel’s actions, which critics describe as genocidal in nature, casts a long shadow over the Democrats' prospects.
Although Harris and her allies face numerous culpabilities, the question of genocide noticeably colors the political landscape. It comes as a moral relief that those complicit in such heinous acts faced electoral repercussions. While small, this victory provides a measure of justice in a world often devoid of it.
The Democratic neglect of voters of Palestinian or Arab descent may not have singlehandedly determined the election's outcome, but their disregard contributed to the broader narrative. Kamala Harris’s inappropriate comments equating the humanitarian crisis in Gaza with issues of grocery prices exemplified a serious misjudgment that resonated negatively with many voters.
As noted by Middle East expert Mouin Rabbani, this election marked “the first time in modern American history” when contempt toward Arabs and demonization of Palestinians backfired electorally.
Additionally, a significant transformation is underway domestically, highlighted by a shift from a white-majority to a white-minority society. The Democrats' alienation of Arab-American citizens may hint at a future landscape where appeasing the Israel lobby alone will no longer suffice to maintain power.
Returning to Trump, if we accept the premise that the most intense expressions of Trumpism are yet to come, the pressing question is: what might this entail? To provide clarity, we can examine the likely areas of change and continuity during his second term.
Firstly, what is not expected to change? Regardless of labels—whether one views him as fascist, nationalist isolationist, populist, or patriotic conservative—Trump is not a democrat. His inclinations lean toward authoritarianism. However, it’s crucial to acknowledge that the US is not a democracy in the truest sense but an oligarchy with authoritarian tendencies. Thus, his administration is unlikely to mark a significant departure from the existing trajectory.
Another area likely to see scant change is the American establishment's unwavering support for Israel. Trump has provided no real insights to suggest he will diverge from this unconditional allegiance. While he showed some indication of listening to Israel's critics during the campaign, it appeared more strategic than substantive. Historical patterns indicate little hope for change regarding American policy toward Israel.
However, optimism for surprises in a Trump administration may arise from three factors. First, his unpredictable nature; second, his recognition of the costs associated with the US's imperial commitments, particularly regarding Israel; and third, his transactional approach, hinting he might weigh US interests against the burdens imposed by the Israeli relationship.
This leads us to one of the first tests for the upcoming Trump administration: whether it will engage in another costly war in the Middle East, specifically against Iran, at Israel's behest.
While Trump has embraced anti-Iranian rhetoric and pursued a harsh “maximum pressure” campaign, the pressing question remains: will he once again marshal the US military forces to assist Israel? Balancing his nationalism and pragmatism could play a pivotal role, and the hope is that he will be reluctant to engage in another large-scale conflict.
Turning to China, Trump's trademark has been a hawkish stance, a position evident in the response of Chinese markets to his election victory. With a firm intention to confront China, the real question may not be if, but rather how he will approach this challenge. Unlike his Democratic counterparts, he might frame the confrontation as economic warfare rather than escalating military tensions.
Finally, regarding Russia, it’s clear that Trump is not a Kremlin agent, and unlike some of his predecessors, he may adopt a more reasonable stance towards Russia. A potential thaw in relations appears likely, but its nature and extent will depend on Washington’s actions. Real concessions may be necessary for the US to rebuild rapport with Russia, as simplistic notions of nullifying the Russian-Chinese alignment will need to be set aside.
In conclusion, it seems probable that under Trump, the US could establish a pragmatic dialogue with Russia, presenting a positive development for global relations. Yet, this reality presents a dire scenario for the “elites” of the EU and other allied nations, who may find themselves isolated amid ongoing tensions. A future with the US in opposition to Russia, while simultaneously being abandoned, could lead to a bleak and uncertain geopolitical landscape.
Camille Lefevre for TROIB News