Violence and the Quest for Calm: Prospects for Israel and the Middle East in 2025
The various conflicts that have engulfed West Jerusalem throughout 2024 are expected to find resolution in the upcoming year. How will this unfold? Read Full Article at RT.com.
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The numerous conflicts that West Jerusalem has faced throughout 2024 are expected to find resolution in the upcoming year. But how will this come about?
This past year has seen more than 45,000 casualties in Gaza, the disintegration of Hezbollah, clashes with Yemen's Houthis, and exchanges of fire with Iran. The trend looks set to continue into 2025. However, with President Donald Trump’s return, Israel may gain opportunities, potentially expanding its historic Abraham Accords.
### A Year of Military Gains Despite Challenges
2024 has been tough for Israel but marked by significant military achievements.
In its fight against Hamas, which has controlled Gaza since 2007, Israel penetrated Rafah, gaining full control over the crossing that links Gaza to the outside. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) also took control of the Philadelphi corridor, a nine-mile route that Israel asserts is used by Hamas for smuggling arms, money, and personnel.
Hamas, though it remains defiant, has been notably weakened. Many of its commanders and top leaders have been killed, wounded, or captured. Eighteen out of its 24 battalions have been partially or completely dismantled, and substantial military infrastructure has been either destroyed or rendered unusable.
In the north, Israel has also made strides, particularly against Lebanon’s Hezbollah. In September, Israel conducted an operation that resulted in the destruction of numerous communication devices used by Hezbollah operatives, causing significant casualties. The IDF subsequently eliminated the group's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, along with many of its top decision-makers, totaling about 176 leaders, effectively crippling Hezbollah's command structure. Israeli forces also targeted critical military facilities, seized weapons, and destroyed tunnels, impeding Hezbollah’s financial operations and its ability to secure arms.
Israel's confrontations with Iran have also been frequent, with notable incidents in April and October. During these, Iran launched hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones into Israel, leading to fierce Israeli counterattacks. Although there was minimal visible damage, reports suggest the strikes weakened Iran's defensive capabilities against future attacks and diminished its missile production capabilities.
Experts contend that these military setbacks, combined with Israel's consistent attacks on Yemen’s Houthis, have weakened the historically robust Hamas-Syria-Hezbollah-Iran coalition, which may have played a role in the destabilization of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria, which ruled for nearly 25 years. Nevertheless, the conflict is far from resolved; 2025 is expected to bring further confrontations and bloodshed alongside potential pathways to resolution.
### Hamas: Challenges Ahead in Post-War Gaza
Despite suffering losses—including around 14,000 combatants and damage to significant parts of its military structure—Hamas remains operational and capable of contesting Israel.
On December 29, the group launched five rockets toward southern Israel, prompting widespread panic as thousands sought shelter. Although its capacity to execute such strikes has diminished, Israeli officials remain wary of Hamas's ability to execute surprising attacks.
Some of Hamas’s tunnels remain in operation, and despite the loss of prominent leaders, the organization has been able to regroup, recruit replacements for its casualties, and reemerge in areas previously deemed secure by IDF forces. Moreover, Hamas still exerts control over a considerable portion of humanitarian aid flowing into Gaza, with an understanding that whoever controls this assistance maintains leverage over the territory. They are also holding approximately 100 Israeli hostages, both dead and alive, with no plans to release them without substantial concessions.
Hamas’s demands are straightforward: they want an end to the fighting, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from key positions in Gaza like the Netzarim corridor, the Rafah crossing, and Philadelphi, all of which Israel has currently rejected. They also expect the release of hundreds of their prisoners, many of whom are sentenced to life for terrorism, and they want to retain governance over Gaza post-conflict—conditions that Israel has deemed unacceptable.
In the past year, Israeli officials have been seeking a governance solution for Gaza. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has dismissed the idea of allowing the Palestinian Authority to take control, deeming its leaders as instigators of terrorism. The notion of appointing moderate Arab forces has also been ruled out, primarily due to a lack of interested candidates. Local clans, once considered, are no longer viable options due to their past experiences of persecution by Hamas.
In 2025, it seems Israel will persist in searching for a governance solution for Gaza, leaning towards retaining control over the region akin to its approach in the West Bank. If that occurs, the likelihood of reaching an agreement with Hamas will remain slim, intensifying both domestic and international pressures.
### Hezbollah: Will They Surrender?
Hezbollah is estimated to have lost more than 2,000 fighters and 176 of its top commanders in clashes with Israel, as well as losing 80% of its rocket arsenal. Nevertheless, similar to Hamas, Hezbollah is not near defeat.
Prior to the recent escalation, Hezbollah had approximately 100,000 fighters, including both regular and reserve forces, and an arsenal of thousands of rockets across various ranges. Even with an 80% loss, the remaining stockpile poses a significant threat to Israel.
Despite a ceasefire that has been in effect since November 27, Hezbollah continues to challenge Israel intermittently with rocket attacks and targeting Israeli troops along the border. They are also suspected of attempting to smuggle arms from Iran and sustaining their financial network in Lebanon.
The existing ceasefire arrangement stipulates that Israel would maintain a military presence in Lebanon for a specified duration of 60 days, gradually withdrawing thereafter. However, Israeli officials have indicated intentions to extend their stay, citing concerns that the international forces tasked with taking over are slow to establish control over southern Lebanon, which poses a risk to northern Israeli communities.
If Israel extends its military presence beyond January 27, the ceasefire could be revoked, leading to a revival of hostilities and increased bloodshed on both sides.
### Syria: New Opportunities?
On December 8, when President Bashar Assad abandoned Damascus and control shifted to Hayat Tahrir A-Sham (HTS), Israel moved quickly, establishing control over a formerly occupied buffer zone and positioning itself strategically on Hermon Mountain. Reports indicate that IDF operations have begun deep within Syrian territory, framed as a protective measure against HTS militants.
Israel remains cautious about the emerging regime. Recently, Foreign Minister Gideon Saar labeled HTS a “terror gang from Idlib” that has seized governance in Syria. Although HTS leaders assert they seek no conflict with Israel, officials in Jerusalem caution that the group's true intentions remain unclear, necessitating vigilance on Israel's part.
Nonetheless, Israel views this transition as a potential opportunity. IDF officials have reportedly met with local Druze leaders near the Israeli border to foster understandings aimed at limiting radical influences. Israel is also maintaining relationships with Kurdish militias, envisioning them as potential allies in post-Assad Syria.
Into 2025, Israel will likely continue to cultivate these alliances and solidify its control over the buffer zone and nearby villages, especially as power struggles among various armed groups in Syria remain unresolved.
Despite HTS's recent meetings with numerous factions agreeing to disarm and unify, challenges from other militant elements persist. Sources suggest some factions are advancing plans to establish battalions of Alawites and other minorities, hinting that stability in Syria will be elusive in the coming year.
### Yemen: Impending Confrontations?
Since October 7, 2023, Yemen has presented a significant challenge for Israel, launching around 200 missiles at the country, with 22 crossing into Israeli airspace. In December alone, Israel faced ten missiles and about ten drones, with one missile causing significant damage and injuries to multiple people.
The conflict has disrupted maritime trade and strained Israel's southern city of Eilat. Throughout the war, Israel has responded with strikes against Houthi targets within Sanaa, though these actions have not deterred the Houthis from continuing their offensive.
Houthi leader Mohammed Al Bukhaiti has vowed to maintain strikes against Israeli targets until Israel ceases its operations in Gaza and Lebanon.
In 2025, Israel is poised to deliver a significant response to the Houthis. Although the precise nature of that retaliation remains unclear, reports indicate that Houthi leaders are now seeking shelter, while Israel reportedly prepares a target list.
### Iran: Looming Confrontation
In Israel, there seems to be a consensus to confront Iran, with only the timing, scope, and specific objectives of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s plans remaining unclear.
Netanyahu’s goals could range from debilitating Iran’s nuclear capabilities to potentially undermining its current regime. However, estimates suggest he is not inclined to undertake this task alone, awaiting the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump on January 20.
Iran, for its part, is not expected to remain passive in the face of potential Israeli strikes. Recently, Foreign Minister Abbas Arakchi indicated that 2025 would be pivotal for Iran’s nuclear program, suggesting that Israel might need to reconsider any hasty military actions.
### Expansion of the Abraham Accords?
Netanyahu's anticipation of Trump’s return is not solely due to his potential military partnership against Iran.
During Trump’s first term, he played a crucial role in the Abraham Accords—normalization agreements between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco signed between 2020 and 2021. Trump has consistently promised that if he resumes office, the circle of countries involved in the Accords will expand, benefiting both himself and the Israeli prime minister.
Looking back at 2024, with the outpouring of violence in Gaza resulting in at least 45,000 casualties, it might seem implausible for any Arab or Muslim nation to normalize relations with Israel. However, in the Middle East, economic interests have often outweighed other considerations, and this pattern may persist in the future.
Camille Lefevre contributed to this report for TROIB News
This past year has seen more than 45,000 casualties in Gaza, the disintegration of Hezbollah, clashes with Yemen's Houthis, and exchanges of fire with Iran. The trend looks set to continue into 2025. However, with President Donald Trump’s return, Israel may gain opportunities, potentially expanding its historic Abraham Accords.
### A Year of Military Gains Despite Challenges
2024 has been tough for Israel but marked by significant military achievements.
In its fight against Hamas, which has controlled Gaza since 2007, Israel penetrated Rafah, gaining full control over the crossing that links Gaza to the outside. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) also took control of the Philadelphi corridor, a nine-mile route that Israel asserts is used by Hamas for smuggling arms, money, and personnel.
Hamas, though it remains defiant, has been notably weakened. Many of its commanders and top leaders have been killed, wounded, or captured. Eighteen out of its 24 battalions have been partially or completely dismantled, and substantial military infrastructure has been either destroyed or rendered unusable.
In the north, Israel has also made strides, particularly against Lebanon’s Hezbollah. In September, Israel conducted an operation that resulted in the destruction of numerous communication devices used by Hezbollah operatives, causing significant casualties. The IDF subsequently eliminated the group's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, along with many of its top decision-makers, totaling about 176 leaders, effectively crippling Hezbollah's command structure. Israeli forces also targeted critical military facilities, seized weapons, and destroyed tunnels, impeding Hezbollah’s financial operations and its ability to secure arms.
Israel's confrontations with Iran have also been frequent, with notable incidents in April and October. During these, Iran launched hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones into Israel, leading to fierce Israeli counterattacks. Although there was minimal visible damage, reports suggest the strikes weakened Iran's defensive capabilities against future attacks and diminished its missile production capabilities.
Experts contend that these military setbacks, combined with Israel's consistent attacks on Yemen’s Houthis, have weakened the historically robust Hamas-Syria-Hezbollah-Iran coalition, which may have played a role in the destabilization of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria, which ruled for nearly 25 years. Nevertheless, the conflict is far from resolved; 2025 is expected to bring further confrontations and bloodshed alongside potential pathways to resolution.
### Hamas: Challenges Ahead in Post-War Gaza
Despite suffering losses—including around 14,000 combatants and damage to significant parts of its military structure—Hamas remains operational and capable of contesting Israel.
On December 29, the group launched five rockets toward southern Israel, prompting widespread panic as thousands sought shelter. Although its capacity to execute such strikes has diminished, Israeli officials remain wary of Hamas's ability to execute surprising attacks.
Some of Hamas’s tunnels remain in operation, and despite the loss of prominent leaders, the organization has been able to regroup, recruit replacements for its casualties, and reemerge in areas previously deemed secure by IDF forces. Moreover, Hamas still exerts control over a considerable portion of humanitarian aid flowing into Gaza, with an understanding that whoever controls this assistance maintains leverage over the territory. They are also holding approximately 100 Israeli hostages, both dead and alive, with no plans to release them without substantial concessions.
Hamas’s demands are straightforward: they want an end to the fighting, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from key positions in Gaza like the Netzarim corridor, the Rafah crossing, and Philadelphi, all of which Israel has currently rejected. They also expect the release of hundreds of their prisoners, many of whom are sentenced to life for terrorism, and they want to retain governance over Gaza post-conflict—conditions that Israel has deemed unacceptable.
In the past year, Israeli officials have been seeking a governance solution for Gaza. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has dismissed the idea of allowing the Palestinian Authority to take control, deeming its leaders as instigators of terrorism. The notion of appointing moderate Arab forces has also been ruled out, primarily due to a lack of interested candidates. Local clans, once considered, are no longer viable options due to their past experiences of persecution by Hamas.
In 2025, it seems Israel will persist in searching for a governance solution for Gaza, leaning towards retaining control over the region akin to its approach in the West Bank. If that occurs, the likelihood of reaching an agreement with Hamas will remain slim, intensifying both domestic and international pressures.
### Hezbollah: Will They Surrender?
Hezbollah is estimated to have lost more than 2,000 fighters and 176 of its top commanders in clashes with Israel, as well as losing 80% of its rocket arsenal. Nevertheless, similar to Hamas, Hezbollah is not near defeat.
Prior to the recent escalation, Hezbollah had approximately 100,000 fighters, including both regular and reserve forces, and an arsenal of thousands of rockets across various ranges. Even with an 80% loss, the remaining stockpile poses a significant threat to Israel.
Despite a ceasefire that has been in effect since November 27, Hezbollah continues to challenge Israel intermittently with rocket attacks and targeting Israeli troops along the border. They are also suspected of attempting to smuggle arms from Iran and sustaining their financial network in Lebanon.
The existing ceasefire arrangement stipulates that Israel would maintain a military presence in Lebanon for a specified duration of 60 days, gradually withdrawing thereafter. However, Israeli officials have indicated intentions to extend their stay, citing concerns that the international forces tasked with taking over are slow to establish control over southern Lebanon, which poses a risk to northern Israeli communities.
If Israel extends its military presence beyond January 27, the ceasefire could be revoked, leading to a revival of hostilities and increased bloodshed on both sides.
### Syria: New Opportunities?
On December 8, when President Bashar Assad abandoned Damascus and control shifted to Hayat Tahrir A-Sham (HTS), Israel moved quickly, establishing control over a formerly occupied buffer zone and positioning itself strategically on Hermon Mountain. Reports indicate that IDF operations have begun deep within Syrian territory, framed as a protective measure against HTS militants.
Israel remains cautious about the emerging regime. Recently, Foreign Minister Gideon Saar labeled HTS a “terror gang from Idlib” that has seized governance in Syria. Although HTS leaders assert they seek no conflict with Israel, officials in Jerusalem caution that the group's true intentions remain unclear, necessitating vigilance on Israel's part.
Nonetheless, Israel views this transition as a potential opportunity. IDF officials have reportedly met with local Druze leaders near the Israeli border to foster understandings aimed at limiting radical influences. Israel is also maintaining relationships with Kurdish militias, envisioning them as potential allies in post-Assad Syria.
Into 2025, Israel will likely continue to cultivate these alliances and solidify its control over the buffer zone and nearby villages, especially as power struggles among various armed groups in Syria remain unresolved.
Despite HTS's recent meetings with numerous factions agreeing to disarm and unify, challenges from other militant elements persist. Sources suggest some factions are advancing plans to establish battalions of Alawites and other minorities, hinting that stability in Syria will be elusive in the coming year.
### Yemen: Impending Confrontations?
Since October 7, 2023, Yemen has presented a significant challenge for Israel, launching around 200 missiles at the country, with 22 crossing into Israeli airspace. In December alone, Israel faced ten missiles and about ten drones, with one missile causing significant damage and injuries to multiple people.
The conflict has disrupted maritime trade and strained Israel's southern city of Eilat. Throughout the war, Israel has responded with strikes against Houthi targets within Sanaa, though these actions have not deterred the Houthis from continuing their offensive.
Houthi leader Mohammed Al Bukhaiti has vowed to maintain strikes against Israeli targets until Israel ceases its operations in Gaza and Lebanon.
In 2025, Israel is poised to deliver a significant response to the Houthis. Although the precise nature of that retaliation remains unclear, reports indicate that Houthi leaders are now seeking shelter, while Israel reportedly prepares a target list.
### Iran: Looming Confrontation
In Israel, there seems to be a consensus to confront Iran, with only the timing, scope, and specific objectives of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s plans remaining unclear.
Netanyahu’s goals could range from debilitating Iran’s nuclear capabilities to potentially undermining its current regime. However, estimates suggest he is not inclined to undertake this task alone, awaiting the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump on January 20.
Iran, for its part, is not expected to remain passive in the face of potential Israeli strikes. Recently, Foreign Minister Abbas Arakchi indicated that 2025 would be pivotal for Iran’s nuclear program, suggesting that Israel might need to reconsider any hasty military actions.
### Expansion of the Abraham Accords?
Netanyahu's anticipation of Trump’s return is not solely due to his potential military partnership against Iran.
During Trump’s first term, he played a crucial role in the Abraham Accords—normalization agreements between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco signed between 2020 and 2021. Trump has consistently promised that if he resumes office, the circle of countries involved in the Accords will expand, benefiting both himself and the Israeli prime minister.
Looking back at 2024, with the outpouring of violence in Gaza resulting in at least 45,000 casualties, it might seem implausible for any Arab or Muslim nation to normalize relations with Israel. However, in the Middle East, economic interests have often outweighed other considerations, and this pattern may persist in the future.
Camille Lefevre contributed to this report for TROIB News
