The True Electoral Map Consists of Only Three States
If the former president secures victory in the East Coast trio of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia, he will return to the White House.
TroibNews 
PHILADELPHIA — The outcome of the presidential election may hinge on just three states: Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia.
Should Vice President Kamala Harris fail to secure Pennsylvania, her fallback relies on a Southern strategy where victories in either Georgia or North Carolina are imperative. The race might be decided early depending on when the polls close in these critical Eastern time zone states.
Although other key battlegrounds such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona are still in play, Harris could face challenges. If Pennsylvania is lost — a state her team finds highly competitive — Harris would then need to win over votes in both a Western and a Southern state, while also securing Michigan and Wisconsin to achieve a victory. However, if she is defeated in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina, the relevance of these other battleground states diminishes significantly.
The strategic importance of these three states is evident in their potential to determine the electoral outcome, as winning these could crucially advantage former President Trump given the structure of the Electoral College.
“It comes down to seven battleground states, you got to win four of them in order to carry it,” noted Michael Whatley, Chair of the Republican National Committee. “Except if you win Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, then that’s going to get you over the hump.”
Trump's campaign strategies are reflected in his heavy advertisement spending, prioritizing Pennsylvania and followed closely by Georgia and North Carolina. Last week, he committed $17 million to North Carolina, showing a significant escalation in his campaign efforts in the state.
“With big reservations coming in for North Carolina, I’d be surprised if there wasn’t a big reservation coming in next from one of the Trump super PACs,” remarked Kurt Pickhardt, a GOP media consultant, highlighting Trump’s intent to secure his Southern support.
Harris's team is also keenly aware of the Republican focus. “From inference, you can see where they’re thinking their bread is buttered,” said Quentin Fulks, deputy campaign manager for the vice president, indicating the strategic battlegrounds perceived by both campaigns.
This election, unlike Biden’s previous campaign which largely banked on the Great Lakes strategy, offers Harris potentially more keys to the White House through her Southern strategy. Despite leading polling suggesting Trump's advantage in Pennsylvania, Harris's opportunities lie in her ability to appeal to key groups like Black men and moderate Republicans, which were clearly targeted in her recent debate performances.
Harris’s strategy also involves appealing to "soft Republicans," or moderate voters who may be disillusioned with Trump but hesitant about Democrats. This strategy was underscored by former Rep. Liz Cheney’s endorsement of Harris at North Carolina's Duke University.
In Georgia, meanwhile, Trump’s strained relationship with Governor Brian Kemp adds another layer of complexity to his campaign efforts, which may affect local Republican sentiments.
Georgia Republicans are curious to see voter turnout in areas like Cobb County which have fluctuated between Democratic and Republican leanings in recent contests, while in North Carolina, controversial statements by Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson may have alienated moderate voters, possibly benefiting the Democrats.
As election strategies unfold, both campaigns recognize the critical nature of battleground states, particularly North Carolina, as JD Vance acknowledged, “It’s very hard for us to win unless we’re able to get North Carolina.”As the election approaches, both campaigns are doubling down on outreach efforts to secure vital voter demographics. Harris's campaign is deploying significant resources to initiate targeted outreach aimed at mobilizing key communities, particularly Black men and moderate Republicans who may be disillusioned with Trump’s tactics.
In Georgia, the dynamics are especially fluid. The question of voter turnout in suburban areas such as Cobb County is crucial, as past elections have shown that slight shifts in voter sentiment can swing the outcome dramatically. With the experience of past Democratic successes and failures in the region, every territory won or lost will be closely watched.
North Carolina presents a similar landscape, where the political climate has often swayed back and forth. Longtime Democratic operatives in the state are cautiously optimistic but have learned from past disappointments. They recognize that while Harris's momentum seems promising, she faces an uphill battle against the deeply entrenched Republican infrastructure and the state's historical voting tendencies.
The traditional Republican base remains a significant factor, especially in North Carolina, where the party has rallied behind controversial figures like Lt. Gov. Robinson. His polarizing remarks could galvanize opposition, yet they also risk alienating moderate voters, making the outcome ever more unpredictable.
As campaigning intensifies, both candidates are preparing for the potential volatility of voter sentiment. Harris's team is aware that winning over undecided voters in these battleground states may be the difference between victory and defeat. As part of her strategy, she has ramped up appearances in areas where soft Republican sentiments prevail, opting for town hall meetings and grassroots events to establish a personal connection with voters.
On the other hand, Trump’s continued commentary on state and local leaders, especially his public disdain for figures like Kemp, not only illustrates a schism within the party but also provides an opening for Democrats. If Trump's unfiltered remarks alienate crucial segments of the electorate, it could deepen the divisions in Republican support.
Ultimately, the race may boil down to the turnout campaigns are able to achieve among their respective bases while persuading undecided voters in critical areas. The stakes couldn't be higher in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia, where the battle for electoral votes will likely play a decisive role in the overall outcome of the election.
With the election only weeks away, it remains to be seen how effective each campaign’s strategies will be. The dynamics in these battleground states continue to shift, and every poll, campaign event, and advertisement will be crucial in securing the advantages needed to clinch victory come November. Both sides will need to navigate the complexities of voter behavior, party loyalty, and individual candidate perception as they push towards what promises to be a contentious election day.
Sophie Wagner for TROIB News
Should Vice President Kamala Harris fail to secure Pennsylvania, her fallback relies on a Southern strategy where victories in either Georgia or North Carolina are imperative. The race might be decided early depending on when the polls close in these critical Eastern time zone states.
Although other key battlegrounds such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona are still in play, Harris could face challenges. If Pennsylvania is lost — a state her team finds highly competitive — Harris would then need to win over votes in both a Western and a Southern state, while also securing Michigan and Wisconsin to achieve a victory. However, if she is defeated in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina, the relevance of these other battleground states diminishes significantly.
The strategic importance of these three states is evident in their potential to determine the electoral outcome, as winning these could crucially advantage former President Trump given the structure of the Electoral College.
“It comes down to seven battleground states, you got to win four of them in order to carry it,” noted Michael Whatley, Chair of the Republican National Committee. “Except if you win Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, then that’s going to get you over the hump.”
Trump's campaign strategies are reflected in his heavy advertisement spending, prioritizing Pennsylvania and followed closely by Georgia and North Carolina. Last week, he committed $17 million to North Carolina, showing a significant escalation in his campaign efforts in the state.
“With big reservations coming in for North Carolina, I’d be surprised if there wasn’t a big reservation coming in next from one of the Trump super PACs,” remarked Kurt Pickhardt, a GOP media consultant, highlighting Trump’s intent to secure his Southern support.
Harris's team is also keenly aware of the Republican focus. “From inference, you can see where they’re thinking their bread is buttered,” said Quentin Fulks, deputy campaign manager for the vice president, indicating the strategic battlegrounds perceived by both campaigns.
This election, unlike Biden’s previous campaign which largely banked on the Great Lakes strategy, offers Harris potentially more keys to the White House through her Southern strategy. Despite leading polling suggesting Trump's advantage in Pennsylvania, Harris's opportunities lie in her ability to appeal to key groups like Black men and moderate Republicans, which were clearly targeted in her recent debate performances.
Harris’s strategy also involves appealing to "soft Republicans," or moderate voters who may be disillusioned with Trump but hesitant about Democrats. This strategy was underscored by former Rep. Liz Cheney’s endorsement of Harris at North Carolina's Duke University.
In Georgia, meanwhile, Trump’s strained relationship with Governor Brian Kemp adds another layer of complexity to his campaign efforts, which may affect local Republican sentiments.
Georgia Republicans are curious to see voter turnout in areas like Cobb County which have fluctuated between Democratic and Republican leanings in recent contests, while in North Carolina, controversial statements by Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson may have alienated moderate voters, possibly benefiting the Democrats.
As election strategies unfold, both campaigns recognize the critical nature of battleground states, particularly North Carolina, as JD Vance acknowledged, “It’s very hard for us to win unless we’re able to get North Carolina.”As the election approaches, both campaigns are doubling down on outreach efforts to secure vital voter demographics. Harris's campaign is deploying significant resources to initiate targeted outreach aimed at mobilizing key communities, particularly Black men and moderate Republicans who may be disillusioned with Trump’s tactics.
In Georgia, the dynamics are especially fluid. The question of voter turnout in suburban areas such as Cobb County is crucial, as past elections have shown that slight shifts in voter sentiment can swing the outcome dramatically. With the experience of past Democratic successes and failures in the region, every territory won or lost will be closely watched.
North Carolina presents a similar landscape, where the political climate has often swayed back and forth. Longtime Democratic operatives in the state are cautiously optimistic but have learned from past disappointments. They recognize that while Harris's momentum seems promising, she faces an uphill battle against the deeply entrenched Republican infrastructure and the state's historical voting tendencies.
The traditional Republican base remains a significant factor, especially in North Carolina, where the party has rallied behind controversial figures like Lt. Gov. Robinson. His polarizing remarks could galvanize opposition, yet they also risk alienating moderate voters, making the outcome ever more unpredictable.
As campaigning intensifies, both candidates are preparing for the potential volatility of voter sentiment. Harris's team is aware that winning over undecided voters in these battleground states may be the difference between victory and defeat. As part of her strategy, she has ramped up appearances in areas where soft Republican sentiments prevail, opting for town hall meetings and grassroots events to establish a personal connection with voters.
On the other hand, Trump’s continued commentary on state and local leaders, especially his public disdain for figures like Kemp, not only illustrates a schism within the party but also provides an opening for Democrats. If Trump's unfiltered remarks alienate crucial segments of the electorate, it could deepen the divisions in Republican support.
Ultimately, the race may boil down to the turnout campaigns are able to achieve among their respective bases while persuading undecided voters in critical areas. The stakes couldn't be higher in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia, where the battle for electoral votes will likely play a decisive role in the overall outcome of the election.
With the election only weeks away, it remains to be seen how effective each campaign’s strategies will be. The dynamics in these battleground states continue to shift, and every poll, campaign event, and advertisement will be crucial in securing the advantages needed to clinch victory come November. Both sides will need to navigate the complexities of voter behavior, party loyalty, and individual candidate perception as they push towards what promises to be a contentious election day.
Sophie Wagner for TROIB News
