The Impact of Soaring Costs in Key Battleground States
Recent years have seen the impact of inflation affecting various aspects of the economy.
TroibNews 
LaQuitta Brown frequently finds her monthly paycheck consumed by groceries, rent, and utility bills. The 45-year-old resident of Detroit, employed at a nursing home, mentions that while she and her husband manage with their combined incomes, her credit card debt continues to rise.
The impact of inflation over the past few years has been significant.
“I used to have an actual plan in place, a budget,” she said in a phone interview. Now, she said, it’s hard to predict how much they’ll spend on food. “You have to make a sacrifice here, you have to make a sacrifice there. It depends what’s on sale.”
Brown represents one of millions of swing-state voters who prioritize the economy as they approach the election on Tuesday. She supports Vice President Kamala Harris, who highlights child care and elder care as key issues — Brown has special needs children and cares for her aging father, who has dementia.
However, overall economic pessimism — despite a recent easing of inflation and sustained low unemployment — may work in favor of former President Donald Trump, who has criticized the Biden-Harris administration for years of rising prices.
A PMG analysis of data from four large cities in key swing states — Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania — indicates how economic issues might influence voters as they head to the polls. Survey findings from Atlanta, Detroit, and Philadelphia reveal that residents are facing greater challenges in affording essential items compared to the national average.
Prices in Detroit and Philadelphia are increasing at a faster rate than the national level. Additionally, cities like Atlanta, Phoenix, and Detroit have experienced a rise in the cost of living that outpaces the U.S. city average since Joe Biden took office.
Brown is not alone in her struggles; more than 38 percent of households in Detroit reported difficulty in covering their usual costs in the past week, as of September.
While wage growth has exceeded price increases for the last couple of years, costs have surpassed income across all four cities during Biden’s presidency. Impoverished Americans, in particular, have faced the harshest effects of persistent inflation, which could also shape voter sentiments.
According to Joanne Hsu, who leads the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey, lower-income Americans consistently expect higher inflation compared to their higher-earning peers. She noted, “they’ve had less of a recovery in sentiment from the June 2022 trough than their higher-income counterparts.”
The housing market has significantly contributed to inflationary pressures, with prices soaring to levels out of reach for many potential buyers, while rents have increased by over 20 percent in less than four years. This trend is particularly noticeable in Atlanta and Phoenix, where most renters allocate at least 30 percent of their income on housing.
“The dwindling supply of low-rent units is only worsening cost burdens,” states a report from Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. “In 2022, just 7.2 million units had contract rents under $600 — the maximum amount affordable to the 26 percent of renters with annual incomes under $24,000. This marks a loss of 2.1 million units since 2012 when adjusting for inflation.”
Recently, rent growth has slowed considerably, partly due to the influx of new housing in cities like Phoenix, where rents have actually decreased by 2.9 percent year over year, according to Apartment List.
This slowdown in rent growth is one factor contributing to the cooling of inflation, which is approaching the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent. Amid these developments, the Conference Board reported in October that consumers have become increasingly optimistic regarding both the economic outlook and future job opportunities.
Now, the pivotal question remains: how will these dynamics influence voter behavior at the ballot box?
Emily Johnson for TROIB News
The impact of inflation over the past few years has been significant.
“I used to have an actual plan in place, a budget,” she said in a phone interview. Now, she said, it’s hard to predict how much they’ll spend on food. “You have to make a sacrifice here, you have to make a sacrifice there. It depends what’s on sale.”
Brown represents one of millions of swing-state voters who prioritize the economy as they approach the election on Tuesday. She supports Vice President Kamala Harris, who highlights child care and elder care as key issues — Brown has special needs children and cares for her aging father, who has dementia.
However, overall economic pessimism — despite a recent easing of inflation and sustained low unemployment — may work in favor of former President Donald Trump, who has criticized the Biden-Harris administration for years of rising prices.
A PMG analysis of data from four large cities in key swing states — Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania — indicates how economic issues might influence voters as they head to the polls. Survey findings from Atlanta, Detroit, and Philadelphia reveal that residents are facing greater challenges in affording essential items compared to the national average.
Prices in Detroit and Philadelphia are increasing at a faster rate than the national level. Additionally, cities like Atlanta, Phoenix, and Detroit have experienced a rise in the cost of living that outpaces the U.S. city average since Joe Biden took office.
Brown is not alone in her struggles; more than 38 percent of households in Detroit reported difficulty in covering their usual costs in the past week, as of September.
While wage growth has exceeded price increases for the last couple of years, costs have surpassed income across all four cities during Biden’s presidency. Impoverished Americans, in particular, have faced the harshest effects of persistent inflation, which could also shape voter sentiments.
According to Joanne Hsu, who leads the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey, lower-income Americans consistently expect higher inflation compared to their higher-earning peers. She noted, “they’ve had less of a recovery in sentiment from the June 2022 trough than their higher-income counterparts.”
The housing market has significantly contributed to inflationary pressures, with prices soaring to levels out of reach for many potential buyers, while rents have increased by over 20 percent in less than four years. This trend is particularly noticeable in Atlanta and Phoenix, where most renters allocate at least 30 percent of their income on housing.
“The dwindling supply of low-rent units is only worsening cost burdens,” states a report from Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. “In 2022, just 7.2 million units had contract rents under $600 — the maximum amount affordable to the 26 percent of renters with annual incomes under $24,000. This marks a loss of 2.1 million units since 2012 when adjusting for inflation.”
Recently, rent growth has slowed considerably, partly due to the influx of new housing in cities like Phoenix, where rents have actually decreased by 2.9 percent year over year, according to Apartment List.
This slowdown in rent growth is one factor contributing to the cooling of inflation, which is approaching the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent. Amid these developments, the Conference Board reported in October that consumers have become increasingly optimistic regarding both the economic outlook and future job opportunities.
Now, the pivotal question remains: how will these dynamics influence voter behavior at the ballot box?
Emily Johnson for TROIB News
