Research Indicates Climate Change Intensified the Lethal Typhoon Gaemi
A group of scientists reported on Thursday that climate change intensified the winds and rain associated with Typhoon Gaemi, resulting in the deaths of dozens of people in the Philippines and China earlier this year.
The World Weather Attribution (WWA), which is known for developing peer-reviewed techniques to examine the impact of climate change on extreme weather events, focused on the three areas most affected by the typhoon: the northern Philippines, Taiwan in China, and Hunan Province.
Their research revealed that human-induced climate change increased the wind speeds of the system by seven percent, and raised rainfall levels by 14 percent in Taiwan and nine percent in Hunan.
However, the scientists noted that the effects of climate change on the Philippine rainfall were not definitively determined due to the complex patterns of the region's monsoon rains.
The study also pointed out that the ocean temperatures that contributed to the formation and intensity of Typhoon Gaemi would have been nearly impossible without the current global warming, which has increased average temperatures by 1.2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
Furthermore, according to the group's models, these warmer conditions have raised the frequency of strong storms like Typhoon Gaemi by 30 percent, from an average of five to six or seven annually.
"This study confirms what we've expected – hotter seas and atmospheres are giving rise to more powerful, longer-lived and deadlier typhoons," said Ralf Toumi, director of the Grantham Institute-Climate Change and the Environment, at Imperial College London.
The article noted that examining climate change's specific impacts on tropical cyclones is challenging, but this area of science is gaining more attention.
WWA's analytical method assesses how unique an extreme event is, models the likelihood and intensity of a comparable event occurring under two different scenarios: one in today’s warmer world and another in a hypothetical world without recent warming levels.
Imperial College London has developed a new technique that's specifically tailored for studying tropical storms, which involves advanced computer modeling to compensate for the lack of extensive historical data on these weather phenomena.
Amid concerns raised by these destructive weather events, the scientists emphasized the necessity to close the preparedness gaps against typhoons and the extensive damages caused by events like Gaemi. They advocated for better urban flood management and more detailed targeted warnings detailing potential storm impacts.
The Article ends by mentioning that as the scientists released the study, Typhoon Shanshan was making landfall in Japan, prompting the highest level of alerts for winds and storm surges.
Olivia Brown for TROIB News