Republican Tension: Cotton Aims for Intelligence Leadership, Blocking Cornyn
Certain senior Republicans were interested in assigning the coveted position to the Texas senator, believing it would encourage him to pursue reelection.
However, there is a major hurdle: Cornyn would need to bypass the current front-runner for the Intelligence Committee chair, Sen. Tom Cotton, who has expressed his intention to take the position.
Cotton’s path to chairmanship is likely solidified by the recent dynamics of the Senate Republican leadership election, where Cotton backed Sen. John Thune. The chair of the intelligence panel is chosen by the majority leader, and with Thune now in that position, he is expected to support Cotton rather than Cornyn, who he defeated in the race.
A spokesperson for Thune did not provide comments on the situation.
When asked whether he anticipates taking over the gavel, Cotton responded, "No comment," on Tuesday. Later that evening, his spokesperson, Caroline Tabler, confirmed: "Senator Thune has told Senator Cotton he’s taking over as chair. He is hiring staff, working with Senator [Marco] Rubio on the transition, and planning with Senator [Mark] Warner for January confirmation hearings."
Cornyn’s team chose not to comment on the matter.
Reports indicate that Cotton has begun hiring staff and is not open to allowing Cornyn to assume the chair, as that position will become available due to Rubio's appointment as Secretary of State. After the leadership race, Cornyn reached out to Cotton to gauge his feelings about the chair, and the response was clear: "I’m going to be the chairman."
After his defeat in the leadership election, Cornyn stated that he intends to run for a fifth term in 2026. Nevertheless, some of his colleagues are skeptical regarding his reelection prospects, particularly due to a potential strong primary challenge from the state's Attorney General, Ken Paxton.
According to two GOP officials familiar with the discussions, offering Cornyn a chance to chair the committee overseeing national intelligence programs was seen as beneficial for all involved. It would grant him an influential role during a time of global unrest and domestic tensions around intelligence and law enforcement. Meanwhile, Cotton would still hold an important position as the newly elected conference chair, the third-highest role in Senate GOP leadership.
Although Cornyn has served in the Senate for 22 years and previously chaired the National Republican Senatorial Committee, he has yet to chair a committee, partly due to joining the Intelligence Committee later in his career than the younger Cotton, who has been in the Senate since 2014.
Some Republicans hoped that Cotton would be satisfied with his leadership position enough to allow Cornyn to take the chair. However, others doubted that Cotton, a military veteran who was considered for a national security role in the Trump administration, would be willing to concede the position.
The discussions among Republican senators surfaced shortly after Cornyn lost to Thune, finishing five votes shy in a contest he had long prepared for and was confident about winning. Reflecting on the uncertainty stemming from the private ballot, he likened his experience to another legislator who lost a leadership bid and subsequently had to send out "27 thank you notes for 24 votes."
A close ally of George W. Bush and Karl Rove, Cornyn previously served as state attorney general before winning his Senate seat in Bush’s first midterm election. He has also been a deputy to Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell for six years and has become known as a deal-maker, notably helping negotiate the bipartisan firearms bill following the Uvalde school shooting in 2022.
Despite not having had a natural rapport with Trump, Cornyn has attempted to maintain a relationship with the former president, which may have played a role in ensuring Trump's neutrality during the leadership race. After a recent meeting with Kash Patel, Trump’s pick for FBI director, Cornyn expressed support, stating he was “inclined to support him, barring some unforeseen circumstances.”
The upcoming challenge for Cornyn's relationship with Trump will significantly depend on whether he can fend off Paxton, the current Texas attorney general and a Trump ally involved in efforts to contest the 2020 election results.
With Trump now back in control of the Department of Justice, it’s unlikely the federal investigation into Paxton will proceed. Paxton has already been acquitted by the Texas Senate following an impeachment trial and has settled local charges that included performing community service without a guilty plea.
Amid this political landscape, Paxton has been openly targeting Cornyn, leading Cornyn to quip, “Hard to run from prison, Ken,” in reference to Paxton’s legal troubles.
Despite his recent leadership race loss, Cornyn asserts both publicly and privately that he plans to run for reelection in 2026, aiming to serve through the latter years of his 70s.
Should he successfully overcome any challenges posed by Paxton, Cornyn is positioned to chair the Senate Finance Committee in 2027.
Reflecting on the role he aims to fulfill, Cornyn referenced a predecessor: “Phil Gramm, while not in 'elected leadership, was always in the middle of some of the hardest issues that confronted the Congress and was a warrior. And I think it’s a pretty good role model.”
Yet, there exists another precedent. After losing a closely contested leadership race in 1994, former Sen. Alan K. Simpson chose to retire at the end of his term, a fate that could linger over Cornyn should he also be unsuccessful.
Lucas Dupont for TROIB News