Why the House GOP's Major Immigration Crackdown Might Fail
Rep. Tony Gonzales stated, “We’re going to need a little time to figure out what shakes out.”
TroibNews 
Republican lawmakers are strategizing a significant overhaul of immigration law and border policies, aiming to fulfill one of President-elect Donald Trump’s key priorities. However, the prospects of achieving the extensive changes conservatives advocate for seem grim.
Although the GOP controls both the House and Senate, they confront substantial political obstacles in implementing the illegal immigration crackdown that was central to their election platform.
There is tension between immigration hardliners and Republicans concerned about extensive restrictions on asylum and deportations regarding the extent of border security measures. With a likely slim majority in the House, Republicans cannot afford any missteps in enacting immigration reforms, and gaining support from Senate Democrats, who may stage a filibuster against their proposals, will be challenging. While Republicans might utilize budget reconciliation to bypass the filibuster, the procedural rules may limit their ability to incorporate comprehensive immigration policy changes.
“We’re going to need a little time to figure out what shakes out,” remarked Rep. Tony Gonzales, a Texas Republican in disagreement with more hardline conservatives. “What does a conference in the House want? What does the conference in the Senate want? What does President Trump want? And then that’s when we have a short window to be able to jam that all through.”
The impending battle over immigration highlights the considerable challenges Republicans face in fulfilling their policy commitments in the coming year, particularly with a narrow House margin and the chaotic influence of Trump, alongside internal dissension even on topics that seemingly unite the party.
For months, GOP lawmakers have been preparing for their potential control of Washington in January. Some Republican leaders privately express regret for not taking more action during Trump’s first term, as noted by two lawmakers who requested anonymity to discuss private meetings.
Majority Leader Steve Scalise of Louisiana, who is expected to retain his role next year, shared that he visited Mar-a-Lago about eight months ago for discussions with Trump regarding their strategy for 2025. He has also been meeting with committee chairs and factions within the House GOP since early summer. In the last week of November, staff for Scalise, Speaker Mike Johnson, outgoing Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, and incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune gathered to plan next steps regarding budget reconciliation.
There are certain immigration matters that unify Republicans in their preparations, based on conversations with approximately a dozen GOP lawmakers. They believe they can leverage budget reconciliation to secure increased funding for the border wall, border technology, and associated personnel. Additionally, they are considering proposals such as taxing remittances sent from the U.S. to other countries.
After that, complications arise.
House Republicans, including moderates from competitive districts, are anticipated to attempt a swift passage of a partisan immigration bill. Known as H.R. 2, this legislation is likely to serve as a messaging tool and face barriers in the Senate. Last year, Republicans spent months negotiating this bill, which imposes stricter asylum regulations and mandates the construction of the border wall.
Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan aims to incorporate some of the more significant changes into the reconciliation package—an effort that could clash with budgetary rules for the procedure and provoke conflict with the Senate parliamentarian who enforces those restrictions. According to reconciliation rules, policies can only be included if their budgetary effects surpass their policy effects. While Trump is expected to implement some of these ideas through executive orders, they can be reversed by subsequent administrations without congressional support.
There are evident internal divisions as well, with GOP hardliners in disagreement with centrists like Gonzales regarding the extent of Trump’s promised mass deportation initiative and how reconciliation should be utilized to bolster that effort.
Jordan noted in an interview that he and his staff are considering whether the reconciliation package could encompass the Trump-initiated Remain in Mexico policy, which would require certain migrants to wait in Mexico while pursuing asylum, tighter asylum qualifications, and modifications to the Flores settlement concerning the treatment and detention of immigrant children.
“We get sworn in on Jan. 3,” Jordan stated. “We should pass H.R. 2 as a stand-alone bill or [break] it up into pieces—I’m open to either one—but pass all of that to show that we’re ready to go. Then see what parts of it…can be put into reconciliation.”
Another House Republican, who spoke anonymously to discuss internal discussions, pointed out that Democrats previously used reconciliation to make adjustments to Obamacare, offering a potential blueprint for how Republicans could work in policies typically at risk of being blocked by the parliamentarian.
“What’s good for the goose is good for the gander,” said one GOP lawmaker involved in the discussions, who was granted anonymity to share insights on private talks. “I’m sure there’s some things that the Senate parliamentarian will not want to go down the road on. But, you know, you don’t know until you push and we need to push.”
Earlier attempts to modify immigration laws through budget reconciliation faced challenges. Democrats tried multiple times to incorporate reforms, such as extending work permits and offering temporary protections from deportation for certain undocumented immigrants, in their 2021 reconciliation package. However, the Senate parliamentarian ruled these efforts did not adhere to budget rules because they represented “substantial policy changes” that would “outweigh the budgetary impact.”
When the Republican Study Committee gathered over 100 proposals from its members to present to Johnson earlier this year, they were mindful that some suggestions might be unlikely to pass the Senate. Rep. Kevin Hern commented in an interview that the group aimed to keep their proposals “as concise as possible…but also that it was plausible that it could pass the parliamentarian.”
“We can’t be completely blind to what reconciliation is,” he added.
Jessica Kline contributed to this report for TROIB News
Although the GOP controls both the House and Senate, they confront substantial political obstacles in implementing the illegal immigration crackdown that was central to their election platform.
There is tension between immigration hardliners and Republicans concerned about extensive restrictions on asylum and deportations regarding the extent of border security measures. With a likely slim majority in the House, Republicans cannot afford any missteps in enacting immigration reforms, and gaining support from Senate Democrats, who may stage a filibuster against their proposals, will be challenging. While Republicans might utilize budget reconciliation to bypass the filibuster, the procedural rules may limit their ability to incorporate comprehensive immigration policy changes.
“We’re going to need a little time to figure out what shakes out,” remarked Rep. Tony Gonzales, a Texas Republican in disagreement with more hardline conservatives. “What does a conference in the House want? What does the conference in the Senate want? What does President Trump want? And then that’s when we have a short window to be able to jam that all through.”
The impending battle over immigration highlights the considerable challenges Republicans face in fulfilling their policy commitments in the coming year, particularly with a narrow House margin and the chaotic influence of Trump, alongside internal dissension even on topics that seemingly unite the party.
For months, GOP lawmakers have been preparing for their potential control of Washington in January. Some Republican leaders privately express regret for not taking more action during Trump’s first term, as noted by two lawmakers who requested anonymity to discuss private meetings.
Majority Leader Steve Scalise of Louisiana, who is expected to retain his role next year, shared that he visited Mar-a-Lago about eight months ago for discussions with Trump regarding their strategy for 2025. He has also been meeting with committee chairs and factions within the House GOP since early summer. In the last week of November, staff for Scalise, Speaker Mike Johnson, outgoing Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, and incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune gathered to plan next steps regarding budget reconciliation.
There are certain immigration matters that unify Republicans in their preparations, based on conversations with approximately a dozen GOP lawmakers. They believe they can leverage budget reconciliation to secure increased funding for the border wall, border technology, and associated personnel. Additionally, they are considering proposals such as taxing remittances sent from the U.S. to other countries.
After that, complications arise.
House Republicans, including moderates from competitive districts, are anticipated to attempt a swift passage of a partisan immigration bill. Known as H.R. 2, this legislation is likely to serve as a messaging tool and face barriers in the Senate. Last year, Republicans spent months negotiating this bill, which imposes stricter asylum regulations and mandates the construction of the border wall.
Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan aims to incorporate some of the more significant changes into the reconciliation package—an effort that could clash with budgetary rules for the procedure and provoke conflict with the Senate parliamentarian who enforces those restrictions. According to reconciliation rules, policies can only be included if their budgetary effects surpass their policy effects. While Trump is expected to implement some of these ideas through executive orders, they can be reversed by subsequent administrations without congressional support.
There are evident internal divisions as well, with GOP hardliners in disagreement with centrists like Gonzales regarding the extent of Trump’s promised mass deportation initiative and how reconciliation should be utilized to bolster that effort.
Jordan noted in an interview that he and his staff are considering whether the reconciliation package could encompass the Trump-initiated Remain in Mexico policy, which would require certain migrants to wait in Mexico while pursuing asylum, tighter asylum qualifications, and modifications to the Flores settlement concerning the treatment and detention of immigrant children.
“We get sworn in on Jan. 3,” Jordan stated. “We should pass H.R. 2 as a stand-alone bill or [break] it up into pieces—I’m open to either one—but pass all of that to show that we’re ready to go. Then see what parts of it…can be put into reconciliation.”
Another House Republican, who spoke anonymously to discuss internal discussions, pointed out that Democrats previously used reconciliation to make adjustments to Obamacare, offering a potential blueprint for how Republicans could work in policies typically at risk of being blocked by the parliamentarian.
“What’s good for the goose is good for the gander,” said one GOP lawmaker involved in the discussions, who was granted anonymity to share insights on private talks. “I’m sure there’s some things that the Senate parliamentarian will not want to go down the road on. But, you know, you don’t know until you push and we need to push.”
Earlier attempts to modify immigration laws through budget reconciliation faced challenges. Democrats tried multiple times to incorporate reforms, such as extending work permits and offering temporary protections from deportation for certain undocumented immigrants, in their 2021 reconciliation package. However, the Senate parliamentarian ruled these efforts did not adhere to budget rules because they represented “substantial policy changes” that would “outweigh the budgetary impact.”
When the Republican Study Committee gathered over 100 proposals from its members to present to Johnson earlier this year, they were mindful that some suggestions might be unlikely to pass the Senate. Rep. Kevin Hern commented in an interview that the group aimed to keep their proposals “as concise as possible…but also that it was plausible that it could pass the parliamentarian.”
“We can’t be completely blind to what reconciliation is,” he added.
Jessica Kline contributed to this report for TROIB News
