Oz closing in on Fetterman in Pennsylvania Senate race

Republican Mehmet Oz has narrowed Democrat John Fetterman's lead in Pennsylvania’s bare-knuckle Senate election, and the two candidates are now polling inside the margin of error, according to a new survey shared exclusively with POLITICO.

Fetterman is slightly ahead with 48 percent of likely voters, while Oz has 46 percent, the poll by AARP found. That’s a shift in Oz’s direction since June, when Fetterman, the state’s lieutenant governor, was leading by six percentage points in the AARP survey.

In recent months, Fetterman has come under heavy negative advertising by Oz and his allies, who have accused him of being soft on crime.

Fetterman’s image has sunk since June, though it is still right side up by a hair. Forty-six percent of likely voters view him favorably, compared with 45 percent who see him unfavorably. In June, the same number of voters looked at him favorably, but only 36 percent perceived him unfavorably.

Oz, meanwhile, has boosted his favorability ratings since June, when he was emerging from a brutal GOP primary in which his opponents drubbed him as a carpetbagger and faux Republican. He remains underwater, though: He is seen favorably by 38 percent, while 50 percent view him unfavorably. In June, those figures were 30 percent and 63 percent, respectively.

The poll was conducted from Oct. 4 to Oct. 12 by Fabrizio Ward, a Republican firm, and Impact Research, a Democratic company. Four percent of respondents were undecided in the Senate race, while 2 percent said they would vote for someone other than Fetterman or Oz.

“The good news for Fetterman is he's still ahead,” said John Anzalone, a founder of Impact Research and pollster for President Joe Biden. “But I would also say that it's not only good to be ahead, it's good to be ahead with an opponent who still has a net-unfavorable in terms of how people perceive him. And that goes a long way in the last three weeks.”

Tony Fabrizio, a founder of Fabrizio Ward who is a longtime pollster for former President Donald Trump, said there is an opportunity for Oz among voters who haven’t made up their minds.

“When you look at the undecideds in the Senate race, they want to vote Republican in the generic ballot. They are net positive towards Trump’s job approval, and they are net negative towards Biden's job approval,” he said. “They’re more interested in economic issues than they are in social issues. So those things hold some glimmer of hope for, obviously, Oz.”

In the AARP poll, Fetterman is outpacing Oz among suburbanites, a key voting bloc that often determines elections in Pennsylvania. Oz, however, is outrunning Fetterman among independents, another critical group of voters that can swing elections.

Fetterman is only somewhat performing better among Democrats than Oz is among Republicans, a sign that the GOP base has largely come home to the celebrity doctor after the grueling primary.

Oz is winning men, men aged 50 and older, rural voters and voters who do not have a college degree. Fetterman is up with women, women aged 50 and older, urban voters and college-educated voters.

Oz is preferred by white voters who are at least 50 years old. Fetterman, meanwhile, has expanded his lead among Black voters 50 years old and up. He is winning 84 percent of those voters, a jump from 76 percent in June.

In the AARP poll, Democrats lead Republicans in the generic ballot, 47 percent to 45 percent. That is the opposite of the June survey, when Republicans were ahead 47 percent to Democrats’ 45 percent.

Forty-three percent of likely voters currently approve of Biden’s job performance, while 55 percent disapprove. That is an improvement for him compared to June, when only 36 percent approved and 61 percent disapproved.

In the October survey, 47 percent of likely voters said they approve of Trump, while 51 percent disapprove.

The state’s gubernatorial race is much less of a nail-biter than the Senate contest, according to the poll: Democrat Josh Shapiro is outrunning Republican Doug Mastriano 53 percent to 42 percent.

Shapiro has widened his lead since June, when an AARP survey showed him up by three percentage points. Mastriano has aired few TV ads as Shapiro has battered him with commercials calling him an extremist.

Shapiro’s favorable-unfavorable rating is 50 percent to 33 percent. For Mastriano, it is 37 percent to 47 percent, only a slight change since June.

Four percent of respondents were undecided in the gubernatorial race, while 1 percent said they would vote for someone other than Shapiro or Mastriano.

Four percent of likely voters in the poll are ticket-splitters, backing both Shapiro and Oz, and they are primarily older, white men. Meanwhile, both Democratic nominees are doing better among voters without college degrees compared to how candidates are performing in other states, according to the pollsters.

Fabrizio said that is likely due “to how the candidates themselves are positioned,” noting that the Republican candidates are below water in their favorability ratings. Anzalone said Fetterman “has an appeal to a universe of voters that is unique for Democrats.”

Though the Democratic candidates are ahead in the gubernatorial and Senate races, they are battling strong headwinds. Three-quarters of likely voters in the poll said the country is headed in the wrong direction, while almost two-thirds are very or somewhat worried about their personal financial situation.

Inflation and rising prices, as well as Social Security and Medicare, are the top issues for voters aged 50 and up in the Senate race. In the governor’s race, inflation and abortion are the most important issues to those voters.

According to the AARP poll, 16 percent of voters 50 and over are “persuadable” in the Senate race, meaning they are not definitely voting for Fetterman or Oz. Five percent are leaning toward or probably voting for Fetterman, while the same is true for 7 percent with regard to Oz. One percent are casting a ballot for someone else, and the rest are undecided.

Nineteen percent of voters 50 and older are persuadable in the governor’s race, with 7 percent leaning toward or probably voting for Shapiro and 9 percent leaning toward or probably voting for Mastriano. One percent are supporting someone else, and the rest are undecided.

Nearly 1,400 likely voters were interviewed for the poll over landlines, cell phones, and SMS-to-web, including an oversampling of voters 50 and up as well as Black voters 50 and older. The margin of error for the statewide voters is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.