It’s up to Biden now to send a controversial weapon to Ukraine

A decision on whether to send cluster munitions to Ukraine is on President Joe Biden’s desk, and could be finalized this week, according to two U.S. officials.

Biden is expected to approve sending the weapons, one of the officials said. Ukrainian forces are struggling to break through Russia’s front lines during their counteroffensive and officials believe providing the munitions will give Kyiv an edge, as its supplies of conventional weapons dwindle. The officials, as well as a congressional aide with knowledge of the discussions, spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a decision that is not yet final.

The Biden administration’s views on providing cluster munitions to Ukraine have shifted over the past year. In December, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said the U.S. had “concerns” about sending the controversial weapons, which are banned by more than 100 countries because unexploded ordnance can end up killing civilians.

But the administration has more recently leaned toward sending the cluster munitions as Kyiv expends large numbers of its stocks of conventional weapons. A top Pentagon official recently told lawmakers military analysts had concluded that cluster munitions would be useful on the battlefield, especially against dug-in Russian positions, but they had not yet been provided due to congressional restrictions and “concerns over allied unity.”

Late last week, multiple officials told POLITICO that the administration now was actively “considering” the transfer of the weapons — setting the stage for Biden’s expected approval.

A National Public Radio reporter said in a tweet Wednesday that the approval for the weapons was expected Thursday.

Both sides are already using cluster munitions, officially called dual-purpose improved conventional munitions, to deadly effect in Ukraine. They are designed to take out multiple military targets by scattering large numbers of explosive “bomblets” over a wide area, but the unexploded ordnance left behind can pose danger to civilians both during and conflict and for years afterward.

In a report released Thursday, Human Rights Watch cites evidence from interviews and photos showing Ukraine has already used cluster munitions “that caused numerous deaths and serious injuries to civilians." In one example from 2022, Ukrainian cluster munitions rocket attacks killed at least eight civilians in the city of Izium, the group said. That tracks with findings from a United Nations investigation earlier this year.

Ukraine continues to deny that it uses cluster munitions, including in a statement to the group: "Cluster munitions were not used within or around the city of Izium in 2022 when it was under Russian occupation,” Ukraine's Defense Ministry said.

Biden will have to navigate political crosscurrents on the issue, as several key Republicans have been urging Biden for months to provide the controversial systems, and others in Biden’s own party are more skeptical. In a recent interview, Rep. Mike Quigley (D-Ill.), co-chair of the Ukraine Caucus, said some lawmakers worry that providing the banned weapons could splinter allied support and blur the moral lines for Ukraine.

“There are those that are 100 percent for and those that are 100 percent against, and there are those assessing it because of what it means when they don’t go off and the danger they present — and they are equally concerned with how our NATO allies will react,” Quigley told POLITICO.

Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo), a former Army Ranger and Afghanistan veteran, also argues against sending cluster munitions, saying that the long-term risks to civilians outweigh the immediate battlefield benefit.

“I spent formative years of my life in Afghanistan looking at kids seeing young Afghan children walking around without arms and legs decades after cluster munitions were used by the Russians in the ‘80s, and I don’t want to see that with Ukrainian children,” Crow said in an interview.

House Foreign Affairs Chair Mike McCaul (R-Texas), House Armed Services Chair Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), and their Republican counterparts in the Senate, have argued that cluster munitions would allow Ukraine’s forces to save their missiles for “higher-value Russian targets.”

The decision to send cluster munitions, often referred to by their acronym DPICMS, would open the door for “new systems that have a DPICM variant,” including 155mm artillery rounds and longer ranged missiles, they said in a March letter to Biden.

Paul McLeary contributed to this report.