House Republicans Adopt New Strategy on Abortion: Discuss It

Battleground Republicans are investing heavily in advertisements that adopt defensive stances on abortion, aiming to counter one of the Democrats' most significant advantages.

Data from AdImpact, a company that monitors advertising, shows that around a dozen GOP candidates in tightly contested House races, particularly in districts leaning Democratic, have begun airing broadcast TV ads this fall to clarify their abortion positions. This number is anticipated to increase as the election date approaches. In contrast, only three Republicans engaged in similar advertising in 2022.

Unlike past campaigns that used ambiguous language concerning "women’s health care," today’s Republicans are taking a more straightforward and personal stance. They are explicitly addressing abortion and expressing support for access. Most of the ads feature candidates speaking directly into the camera.

Several recent ads showcase Republican candidates promising to oppose a national abortion ban, while some discuss IVF, birth control, or women's health choices more broadly. One Republican challenger even labels himself as "pro-choice."

“I trust women. I cherish new life,” says Rep. Juan Ciscomani of Arizona in one of the ads.

“Let me be clear, I will never support a national abortion ban,” asserts New York Rep. Mike Lawler in another.

“Demonizing women over health care choices isn’t right,” states an ad from Rob Mercuri, who is competing against Democratic Rep. Chris Deluzio in Pennsylvania.

Republicans are aware of the substantial trust gap with voters regarding their stance on abortion. Following the fall of Roe v. Wade in 2022, Democrats have been aggressively attacking Republicans, contributing to a string of victories for the left. Republicans were unprepared that year, largely ignoring the Democratic onslaught, and managed only a narrow majority in an election cycle they anticipated would result in a red wave.

The change in strategy indicates that Republicans recognize the importance of abortion issues to voters and their potential impact on election outcomes. Some party strategists believe that previously allowing Democrats to dominate the conversation was a significant error.

“The fact is that the landscape has changed so much,” said Rep. Marc Molinaro, who aired an abortion rights-focused ad last month. “I just wanted to be very clear. And no third-party voice, me looking at the camera, explaining to women and to the people I represent, this is what I believe. This is a decision that should be left to you and your physician.”

Opponents criticize these ads as insincere platitudes that contradict the congressional voting records of the candidates over the past two years. They question why voters should trust Republicans on abortion rights, especially given that many prominent party members openly oppose them and played a role in the reversal of Roe v. Wade.

How effectively battleground candidates can distance themselves from the hardline GOP stance against abortion and counter Democratic attacks will be crucial for their electoral success and the struggle for control of Congress.

“The reality is you have to explain to voters, especially when the Democrats’ whole campaign strategy is to lie about swing-district Republicans on this issue,” Lawler remarked. “You have to be able to present it to voters unfiltered, in your own voice.”

As evidence of the seriousness of their message, Republicans are placing ads in major markets like New York City. In 2022, candidates such as Lawler focused their abortion-themed ads on cable TV, specifically targeting pro-choice women.

Thus far, nearly all Republican abortion ads on broadcast TV have originated from districts won by President Joe Biden in 2020, including areas in Pennsylvania, Oregon, and California.

During the midterm elections, GOP party leaders encouraged candidates to avoid responding to Democratic abortion ads, instead urging them to concentrate on economic messages. At that time, abortion was consistently seen as a lesser concern for voters in swing districts compared to issues like inflation.

However, Republicans performed significantly worse than anticipated, only managing to gain enough seats for a slim majority, with abortion recognized widely as a key driver behind numerous Democratic wins.

The results of that election, along with successful abortion rights initiatives in traditionally conservative states, led party leaders to realize that they could no longer disregard the issue.

Much of their polling data regarding the importance of abortion rights in swing districts has not changed dramatically since the midterms, but Republicans are no longer solely relying on that information to guide their approach.

"The polls weren’t picking up how important it was,” explained a House GOP leadership aide, who requested anonymity to discuss private data. “Republicans learned their lesson last cycle and are trying to do everything they can to avoid Democrats weaponizing that issue to the max."

This challenge extends across the Republican Party, from former President Donald Trump—who has attempted to maintain a balancing act regarding the issue to appeal to both his base and moderate voters—to candidates at state and local levels.

During the previous election cycle, Republican Senate candidates in at least four competitive races aired broadcast ads addressing abortion, often accompanied by their female relatives. For example, in Colorado, Republican Joe O’Dea even branded himself as a "pro-choice" candidate. This year, Republican Senate candidates including Larry Hogan in Maryland, Sam Brown in Nevada, and Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania are among those promoting their support for abortion rights in their ads.

Earlier this year, the National Republican Congressional Committee distributed a memo to candidates advising them to clarify their positions on abortion. Nevertheless, even party strategists acknowledge that many voters are inclined to associate the Republican Party with a strict abortion ban.

Democrats are poised to capitalize on this perception, adjusting their responses as Republicans alter their strategies by releasing counter-ads that reference specific votes or positions taken by GOP candidates in the past.

Polling conducted by the House Majority PAC, which is dedicated to supporting Democratic congressional candidates, revealed that “a majority of voters don’t find” Republicans’ “false claims about their abortion records to be credible,” according to a memo from late September acquired by PMG.

In Lawler’s suburban district near New York City, the group discovered that 57 percent of likely voters harbored significant doubts about his abortion record. In GOP Rep. Brandon Williams’ upstate New York district, that figure rose to 74 percent. Similarly, in Ciscomani’s Tucson district, 60 percent of likely voters expressed serious doubts, with 40 percent believing it to be “the best reason” to vote against him.

“He claims that he trusts women,” argued Kirsten Engel, the Democrat challenging Ciscomani. “Then why has he been voting repeatedly to restrict abortion while he's been in Congress? I think his record does not match his current statements.”

The House Democratic campaign arm is airing an ad in Arizona that uses Ciscomani’s previous votes: “Juan Ciscomani can say what he wants. But his record speaks for itself.”

Findings from the House Majority PAC were particularly striking in Molinaro’s upstate New York district, where 85 percent of likely voters believed he would not oppose a national abortion ban. This survey occurred after Molinaro started running his ad stating that he has upheld his promise to oppose such a ban.

Josh Riley, the Democrat running against Molinaro, launched a campaign spot highlighting that the incumbent voted against abortion rights 13 times.

“Marc Molinaro doesn’t respect you enough to be honest,” the narrator states in the advertisement.

Aarav Patel contributed to this report for TROIB News