Fyodor Lukyanov: Unveiling Trump's True Goals in His Trade War
<b>The US President Anticipates EU Compliance — And He Might Be Correct</b> US President Donald Trump was serious about his intentions. As he had indicated, he has initiated a significant transformation of the nation’s trade policy, implementing...
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The US President Anticipates EU Compliance — And He Might Be Correct
US President Donald Trump was serious about his intentions. As he had indicated, he has initiated a significant transformation of the nation’s trade policy, implementing extensive tariffs aimed at what he describes as the rebalancing of trade dynamics with major partners. This initiative has unsettled markets and raised alarms about a potential global recession—or even a depression. Known for his brash, high-stakes approach, Trump has made it clear that his strategy is intentional and only adaptable on his terms. Nevertheless, the results remain uncertain, and many experts warn that the US could face more severe repercussions than other countries.
Economists generally concur that any potential benefits from this strategy, if they materialize, would likely be long-term. In the interim, Americans should brace for increased inflation, struggling manufacturers, diminished consumer purchasing power, and a decline in market capitalization. However, Trump is not swayed by popular opinion. He is a political fighter whose ambitions extend beyond mere economic reform; his aim is to fundamentally alter the global system that he believes is driving America toward decline.
To grasp Trump’s perspective, it is helpful to recall the notorious 2016 essay “The Flight 93 Election,” penned by conservative thinker Michael Anton. In this piece, Anton equated Trump supporters to the courageous passengers on United Airlines Flight 93, who donned their courage to thwart a tragedy on 9/11. The analogy was stark: America, hijacked by liberal globalists, was on a self-destructive path. Within this framework, Trump emerged as the critical response needed to prevent collapse.
Anton later served in Trump’s first administration, became disillusioned, but has regained prominence in the current one. He reportedly now leads policy planning at the State Department and is engaged in discussions with Russia. It appears that the logic of Flight 93, initially focused on domestic politics, has broadened to encompass the entire globe. The Trump administration perceives the current global order as both unsustainable and a threat to American interests. They believe that if the system is not dismantled now, it may soon become impossible to repair.
Trump operates under the assumption that he can coerce nations into renegotiating trade agreements by leveraging America's market strength. In certain instances, this tactic may succeed, as many countries cannot afford an all-out trade war with the US. However, his primary targets—China and the European Union—are not as easily intimidated.
In the case of China, the nation is nearly on par with the US in terms of global economic influence and weight. While it isn’t a hegemonic power, China views itself as a peer in a multipolar world. This self-perception makes yielding to US demands inconceivable. Beijing believes it can endure the current situation, possibly outlasting Washington. While it may underestimate its opponent, it is not prepared to capitulate without a struggle.
The European Union presents a different set of challenges. Its trade policy is governed by the European Commission rather than individual member states, which restricts flexibility and slows response times during crises. Countries like Germany, Europe’s leading exporter, are directly affected by US tariffs, yet they lack the ability to negotiate independently. Coordination within the EU has always been complex, and during times of significant pressure, national interests frequently take precedence over collective goals.
Additionally, the EU's military and political reliance on the United States complicates its ability to assert its independence. While Trump increasingly perceives Western Europe as an adversary—especially regarding trade and security—the bloc continues to regard the US as a crucial ally. At this moment, it cannot envision a future devoid of American security support. This dependency provides Washington with leverage absent in its relationship with China.
Ironically, Western Europe finds itself torn between a defiant stance and the inclination to comply. Trump seems convinced that, unlike China, the EU will eventually relent. Historically, this has often been the case; however, any concession now could jeopardize significant ambitions and offer no clear rewards.
As the US-China relationship enters a phase characterized by public defiance followed by anticipated negotiations, the path forward for US-EU relations is less certain. Trump appears to expect complete submission from Brussels in the near future.
This expectation may be overly optimistic. Western European governments are grappling with internal economic pressures, particularly as industries and agriculture face rising costs and lost export opportunities. Despite these challenges, Brussels remains ideologically committed to the transatlantic alliance and the liberal economic order, albeit one that is being redefined by Washington.
Trump's ambitions are extensive and urgent: he seeks to restructure global trade, resolve the conflict in Ukraine, and contain Iran—all concurrently and all within his second term. He perceives no reason to delay, negotiate, or adhere to established diplomatic norms. This approach mirrors the Flight 93 strategy applied to global politics: disrupt the system before it self-destructs.
The extent to which the rest of the world will tolerate this remains uncertain. China is unlikely to concede easily, and while the EU may protest, procrastinate, and endeavor to negotiate, it risks internal divisions if pushed too far. What is evident is that under Trump, the US is no longer striving to lead the world; instead, it is attempting to redefine it—on its own terms.
Ramin Sohrabi for TROIB News
US President Donald Trump was serious about his intentions. As he had indicated, he has initiated a significant transformation of the nation’s trade policy, implementing extensive tariffs aimed at what he describes as the rebalancing of trade dynamics with major partners. This initiative has unsettled markets and raised alarms about a potential global recession—or even a depression. Known for his brash, high-stakes approach, Trump has made it clear that his strategy is intentional and only adaptable on his terms. Nevertheless, the results remain uncertain, and many experts warn that the US could face more severe repercussions than other countries.
Economists generally concur that any potential benefits from this strategy, if they materialize, would likely be long-term. In the interim, Americans should brace for increased inflation, struggling manufacturers, diminished consumer purchasing power, and a decline in market capitalization. However, Trump is not swayed by popular opinion. He is a political fighter whose ambitions extend beyond mere economic reform; his aim is to fundamentally alter the global system that he believes is driving America toward decline.
To grasp Trump’s perspective, it is helpful to recall the notorious 2016 essay “The Flight 93 Election,” penned by conservative thinker Michael Anton. In this piece, Anton equated Trump supporters to the courageous passengers on United Airlines Flight 93, who donned their courage to thwart a tragedy on 9/11. The analogy was stark: America, hijacked by liberal globalists, was on a self-destructive path. Within this framework, Trump emerged as the critical response needed to prevent collapse.
Anton later served in Trump’s first administration, became disillusioned, but has regained prominence in the current one. He reportedly now leads policy planning at the State Department and is engaged in discussions with Russia. It appears that the logic of Flight 93, initially focused on domestic politics, has broadened to encompass the entire globe. The Trump administration perceives the current global order as both unsustainable and a threat to American interests. They believe that if the system is not dismantled now, it may soon become impossible to repair.
Trump operates under the assumption that he can coerce nations into renegotiating trade agreements by leveraging America's market strength. In certain instances, this tactic may succeed, as many countries cannot afford an all-out trade war with the US. However, his primary targets—China and the European Union—are not as easily intimidated.
In the case of China, the nation is nearly on par with the US in terms of global economic influence and weight. While it isn’t a hegemonic power, China views itself as a peer in a multipolar world. This self-perception makes yielding to US demands inconceivable. Beijing believes it can endure the current situation, possibly outlasting Washington. While it may underestimate its opponent, it is not prepared to capitulate without a struggle.
The European Union presents a different set of challenges. Its trade policy is governed by the European Commission rather than individual member states, which restricts flexibility and slows response times during crises. Countries like Germany, Europe’s leading exporter, are directly affected by US tariffs, yet they lack the ability to negotiate independently. Coordination within the EU has always been complex, and during times of significant pressure, national interests frequently take precedence over collective goals.
Additionally, the EU's military and political reliance on the United States complicates its ability to assert its independence. While Trump increasingly perceives Western Europe as an adversary—especially regarding trade and security—the bloc continues to regard the US as a crucial ally. At this moment, it cannot envision a future devoid of American security support. This dependency provides Washington with leverage absent in its relationship with China.
Ironically, Western Europe finds itself torn between a defiant stance and the inclination to comply. Trump seems convinced that, unlike China, the EU will eventually relent. Historically, this has often been the case; however, any concession now could jeopardize significant ambitions and offer no clear rewards.
As the US-China relationship enters a phase characterized by public defiance followed by anticipated negotiations, the path forward for US-EU relations is less certain. Trump appears to expect complete submission from Brussels in the near future.
This expectation may be overly optimistic. Western European governments are grappling with internal economic pressures, particularly as industries and agriculture face rising costs and lost export opportunities. Despite these challenges, Brussels remains ideologically committed to the transatlantic alliance and the liberal economic order, albeit one that is being redefined by Washington.
Trump's ambitions are extensive and urgent: he seeks to restructure global trade, resolve the conflict in Ukraine, and contain Iran—all concurrently and all within his second term. He perceives no reason to delay, negotiate, or adhere to established diplomatic norms. This approach mirrors the Flight 93 strategy applied to global politics: disrupt the system before it self-destructs.
The extent to which the rest of the world will tolerate this remains uncertain. China is unlikely to concede easily, and while the EU may protest, procrastinate, and endeavor to negotiate, it risks internal divisions if pushed too far. What is evident is that under Trump, the US is no longer striving to lead the world; instead, it is attempting to redefine it—on its own terms.
Ramin Sohrabi for TROIB News
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