Experts Weigh In on Biden's Dropout: Implications for the 2024 Election
Political analysts and historians offer their insights on a unique chapter in American political history.
TroibNews 
A week ago, former President Donald Trump was nearly assassinated. Today, President Joe Biden dropped his reelection bid. The events have thrown the presidential election year into unprecedented chaos and uncertainty.
In an effort to make sense of the situation, we reached out to top political analysts, thinkers, and historians for their predictions on American politics over the next four months until Election Day.
The main questions revolve around Vice President Kamala Harris. Will she consolidate support for the Democratic nomination or will the party fracture? Can an open process strengthen or weaken her? And if she becomes the nominee, can she defeat Trump in a general election? Our experts have differing opinions, reflecting a divide within both left and right political camps.
Here’s their take.
**‘An open process will be the hottest ticket in American politics in decades’**
**BY MONA CHAREN**
Mona Charen, a syndicated columnist and policy editor at The Bulwark, argues that President Biden’s withdrawal embodies wisdom. "Men and nations do act wisely when they have exhausted all the other possibilities." Charen points out the potential for Democrats to avoid chaos at their convention, noting the historical mess of the 1968 Chicago convention. She argues that an open process could invigorate the party and prevent voters from feeling disenfranchised again.
**‘Kamala Harris is ready to energize our base’**
**BY MICHAEL STARR HOPKINS**
Michael Starr Hopkins, CEO of Northern Starr Strategies, praises Biden's decision as an act of patriotism. He believes Kamala Harris has the qualities needed to mobilize key voter demographics, such as young people, women, and communities of color. According to Hopkins, the Democrats’ focus should now be on getting voters to the polls to counter the GOP’s agenda.
**‘It doesn't matter whom the Democrats pick. They can't stop what's coming.’**
**BY HELEN ANDREWS**
Helen Andrews, a senior editor at The American Conservative, declares that a Trump victory is inevitable. She believes voters prefer Trump’s past performance and criticizes the Democratic Party for undermining its own primary process. Andrews feels that this makes any appeal to preserving democracy hollow and that Harris’s potential nomination would be both inauthentic and tarnished.
**‘We’ll be spared the rematch that almost nobody wanted’**
**BY GEOFFREY KABASERVICE**
Geoffrey Kabaservice from the Niskanen Center reflects on Biden’s career and the polarized state of the nation. While recognizing Biden’s achievements, he points out that the Democrats now have the opportunity to promote a vision of genuine reform and unity, stepping away from the divisive past.
**‘We’re driving off road’**
**BY JOSHUA ZEITZ**
Historian Joshua Zeitz emphasizes Biden’s historical success domestically and internationally. He acknowledges the uncertain road ahead but believes that with Biden out, the election becomes a battle against two men who have passed their prime and a majority who fear a second Trump administration.
**‘Donald Trump is now the de facto president’**
**BY CURT MILLS**
Curt Mills of The American Conservative interprets Biden’s withdrawal as making Trump the de facto president. Mills is critical of Harris, calling her previous performance lackluster and predicting that she will struggle on a bigger stage.
**‘The critical question is whether the Democrats will get smart’**
**BY ALLAN LICHTMAN**
Allan Lichtman, a distinguished professor at American University, uses his historical prediction system to determine the Democrats’ chances. He argues that to avoid a predicted defeat, the party needs to unite behind Harris, who is qualified but may still face internal contestation.
**‘This coup is not going to work out well for the Democrats’**
**BY JOSH HAMMER**
Josh Hammer of Newsweek views Biden’s exit as a disastrous move for the Democrats. He criticizes the decision to replace Biden with what he sees as a less relatable candidate, predicting that Trump will benefit from the ensuing chaos.
**‘Democrats have a fantastic opportunity to return the race to traditional fundamentals’**
**BY BILL SCHER**
Bill Scher from POLITICO Magazine believes that with Biden out, Democrats can focus on traditional political fundamentals, attacking Trump’s record and countering his rhetoric. He emphasizes Harris's stronger public presence as being advantageous in shifting the campaign focus away from Biden’s perceived weaknesses.
**‘A consolidation of the entire Democratic Party behind Kamala Harris’**
**BY CHUCK ROCHA**
Chuck Rocha, founder of Solidarity Strategies, predicts the Democratic Party will consolidate around Harris, utilizing the funds and resources initially meant for Biden. He highlights Harris’s role in pushing back against the Dobbs decision as beneficial in mobilizing support.
**‘This kind of chaos this close to election day means Trump is going to win’**
**BY SAURABH SHARMA**
Saurabh Sharma argues that Biden’s withdrawal, likely influenced by donor pressure, will lead to chaos that will bolster Trump's chances. Sharma predicts internal Democratic conflicts will benefit Trump-Vance.
**‘If the new nominee runs with the old playbook, they risk being equally vulnerable’**
**BY ANDRA GILLESPIE**
Andra Gillespie from Emory University emphasizes the need for a fresh, compelling message from the new Democratic nominee. She warns against rehashing Biden's old strategies and forecasts that adept handling of Trump’s attacks will be crucial.
**‘[Democrats] will find themselves tied to a half-baked and untested set of ideas’**
**BY OREN CASS**
Oren Cass believes that without a competitive primary, the Democrats may end up with an ill-defined agenda. He suggests that instead of solidifying their platform, they might find themselves promoting untested policies that are hard to sell to the public.
**‘Picture a prosecutor versus someone with 88 indictments’**
**BY ANGELA RYE**
Angela Rye advocates for a united Democratic front behind Harris. She argues that voters who supported the Biden-Harris ticket should still have their voices count and frames the upcoming election as a war for democracy.
**‘Need to dispel the Trump nostalgia’**
**BY LIAM DONOVAN**
Liam Donovan points out that Harris must overcome voter nostalgia for Trump’s era, driven by economic concerns. He suggests that Harris needs to effectively counteract Trump’s attacks and present a forward-looking vision to win voter support.
The next few months promise to be intense and unpredictable, with the future of the nation hanging in the balance.
Ian Smith contributed to this report for TROIB News
In an effort to make sense of the situation, we reached out to top political analysts, thinkers, and historians for their predictions on American politics over the next four months until Election Day.
The main questions revolve around Vice President Kamala Harris. Will she consolidate support for the Democratic nomination or will the party fracture? Can an open process strengthen or weaken her? And if she becomes the nominee, can she defeat Trump in a general election? Our experts have differing opinions, reflecting a divide within both left and right political camps.
Here’s their take.
**‘An open process will be the hottest ticket in American politics in decades’**
**BY MONA CHAREN**
Mona Charen, a syndicated columnist and policy editor at The Bulwark, argues that President Biden’s withdrawal embodies wisdom. "Men and nations do act wisely when they have exhausted all the other possibilities." Charen points out the potential for Democrats to avoid chaos at their convention, noting the historical mess of the 1968 Chicago convention. She argues that an open process could invigorate the party and prevent voters from feeling disenfranchised again.
**‘Kamala Harris is ready to energize our base’**
**BY MICHAEL STARR HOPKINS**
Michael Starr Hopkins, CEO of Northern Starr Strategies, praises Biden's decision as an act of patriotism. He believes Kamala Harris has the qualities needed to mobilize key voter demographics, such as young people, women, and communities of color. According to Hopkins, the Democrats’ focus should now be on getting voters to the polls to counter the GOP’s agenda.
**‘It doesn't matter whom the Democrats pick. They can't stop what's coming.’**
**BY HELEN ANDREWS**
Helen Andrews, a senior editor at The American Conservative, declares that a Trump victory is inevitable. She believes voters prefer Trump’s past performance and criticizes the Democratic Party for undermining its own primary process. Andrews feels that this makes any appeal to preserving democracy hollow and that Harris’s potential nomination would be both inauthentic and tarnished.
**‘We’ll be spared the rematch that almost nobody wanted’**
**BY GEOFFREY KABASERVICE**
Geoffrey Kabaservice from the Niskanen Center reflects on Biden’s career and the polarized state of the nation. While recognizing Biden’s achievements, he points out that the Democrats now have the opportunity to promote a vision of genuine reform and unity, stepping away from the divisive past.
**‘We’re driving off road’**
**BY JOSHUA ZEITZ**
Historian Joshua Zeitz emphasizes Biden’s historical success domestically and internationally. He acknowledges the uncertain road ahead but believes that with Biden out, the election becomes a battle against two men who have passed their prime and a majority who fear a second Trump administration.
**‘Donald Trump is now the de facto president’**
**BY CURT MILLS**
Curt Mills of The American Conservative interprets Biden’s withdrawal as making Trump the de facto president. Mills is critical of Harris, calling her previous performance lackluster and predicting that she will struggle on a bigger stage.
**‘The critical question is whether the Democrats will get smart’**
**BY ALLAN LICHTMAN**
Allan Lichtman, a distinguished professor at American University, uses his historical prediction system to determine the Democrats’ chances. He argues that to avoid a predicted defeat, the party needs to unite behind Harris, who is qualified but may still face internal contestation.
**‘This coup is not going to work out well for the Democrats’**
**BY JOSH HAMMER**
Josh Hammer of Newsweek views Biden’s exit as a disastrous move for the Democrats. He criticizes the decision to replace Biden with what he sees as a less relatable candidate, predicting that Trump will benefit from the ensuing chaos.
**‘Democrats have a fantastic opportunity to return the race to traditional fundamentals’**
**BY BILL SCHER**
Bill Scher from POLITICO Magazine believes that with Biden out, Democrats can focus on traditional political fundamentals, attacking Trump’s record and countering his rhetoric. He emphasizes Harris's stronger public presence as being advantageous in shifting the campaign focus away from Biden’s perceived weaknesses.
**‘A consolidation of the entire Democratic Party behind Kamala Harris’**
**BY CHUCK ROCHA**
Chuck Rocha, founder of Solidarity Strategies, predicts the Democratic Party will consolidate around Harris, utilizing the funds and resources initially meant for Biden. He highlights Harris’s role in pushing back against the Dobbs decision as beneficial in mobilizing support.
**‘This kind of chaos this close to election day means Trump is going to win’**
**BY SAURABH SHARMA**
Saurabh Sharma argues that Biden’s withdrawal, likely influenced by donor pressure, will lead to chaos that will bolster Trump's chances. Sharma predicts internal Democratic conflicts will benefit Trump-Vance.
**‘If the new nominee runs with the old playbook, they risk being equally vulnerable’**
**BY ANDRA GILLESPIE**
Andra Gillespie from Emory University emphasizes the need for a fresh, compelling message from the new Democratic nominee. She warns against rehashing Biden's old strategies and forecasts that adept handling of Trump’s attacks will be crucial.
**‘[Democrats] will find themselves tied to a half-baked and untested set of ideas’**
**BY OREN CASS**
Oren Cass believes that without a competitive primary, the Democrats may end up with an ill-defined agenda. He suggests that instead of solidifying their platform, they might find themselves promoting untested policies that are hard to sell to the public.
**‘Picture a prosecutor versus someone with 88 indictments’**
**BY ANGELA RYE**
Angela Rye advocates for a united Democratic front behind Harris. She argues that voters who supported the Biden-Harris ticket should still have their voices count and frames the upcoming election as a war for democracy.
**‘Need to dispel the Trump nostalgia’**
**BY LIAM DONOVAN**
Liam Donovan points out that Harris must overcome voter nostalgia for Trump’s era, driven by economic concerns. He suggests that Harris needs to effectively counteract Trump’s attacks and present a forward-looking vision to win voter support.
The next few months promise to be intense and unpredictable, with the future of the nation hanging in the balance.
Ian Smith contributed to this report for TROIB News
