Do overseas voters possess decisive influence?

With an increasing number of Americans choosing to live abroad, campaigns are aiming to connect with every possible voter in a closely contested presidential race.

Do overseas voters possess decisive influence?
CHICAGO — The upcoming November election may hinge on a very narrow margin, prompting both Democrats and Republicans to intensify efforts to mobilize American voters living abroad.

In a significant first for a presidential election cycle, Democrats are investing notable resources to sway voters in their favor. The Democratic National Committee, alongside private benefactors, is directing over $450,000 towards a campaign aimed at encouraging Americans from swing states who reside overseas — a population estimated by the State Department to be nearly 9 million. This initiative includes direct advertisements in traditional and social media, billboards in Canada, mail outreach, and in-person events.

“We’re going to win this election by engaging every eligible voter, no matter where they live, and our investment shows our commitment to leaving no stone left unturned,” said DNC Deputy Communications Director Abhi Rahman.

This campaign to mobilize Democrats Abroad builds on a pilot initiative launched in 2022. Many of the Americans living abroad are military personnel, private sector employees, or students at international universities, yet voter turnout among them remains low. Starting Saturday, ballots will begin arriving in the inboxes of U.S. citizens living internationally.

Republicans are also working to connect with voters overseas through digital platforms. The Republican National Committee has created a Republicans Overseas website that provides information on how to receive and submit ballots.

“The RNC is working hand-in-glove with the Trump Campaign to reach all eligible voters — including those abroad — to turn out the GOP electorate for an unprecedented win on Nov. 5,” RNC Spokesperson Anna Kelly stated.

Voters must adhere to the regulations of their home states when submitting ballots. Some states necessitate a printed version, while others accept electronic delivery, as explained by Bruce Heyman, former U.S. ambassador to Canada and co-leader of the Americans Abroad initiative. There are also variations among states regarding whether ballots should be hand-delivered by Election Day or simply postmarked beforehand.

Approximately 1.6 million individuals living overseas hail from swing states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, according to estimates from the Democrats Abroad group. In the 2020 election, about 44,000 votes from Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin were crucial for Joe Biden's victory.

“We saw in 2016 that there were a lot of Americans in Canada, many of whom are Michiganders, who didn't vote. And then we looked at other battleground border states and saw the close margins and realized voters abroad are a big factor,” Heyman noted.

Heyman and his wife, Vicki, have raised $150,000 for the Americans Abroad get-out-the-vote campaign, in addition to the $300,000 contributed by the DNC.

While participation in overseas voting increased from 2016 to 2020, Heyman believes that this November’s votes from abroad could prove pivotal, especially as more Americans have relocated overseas since the onset of the pandemic.

The initiative has garnered prominent endorsements, including from Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, who participated in a recent online get-out-the-vote event targeting Americans abroad.

Overseas voters can “make the difference” in the election, Pelosi stated in a video shared on her social media accounts.

When questioned about whether the Democrats' voter outreach efforts might also encourage Republican participation, Heyman expressed confidence. “From all the analysis that we've done and seen, something like 80 percent of Americans abroad vote Democrat,” he said. “It’s because they care about foreign policy and the stature of America in the world and are very worried about a potential Trump return.”

Navid Kalantari contributed to this report for TROIB News