Biden intensifies pressure on Israel as conflict undermines Harris's position

The Biden administration is implementing new measures to address the escalating crisis in the Middle East, recognizing that any actions related to Israel could influence the outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election in three weeks.

Recently, President Joe Biden’s team has cautioned Israel about the necessity of resuming humanitarian aid to Gaza, warning that failure to do so may result in a halt to weapons shipments. They have also secured an apparent commitment from Israel to refrain from targeting Iranian nuclear and oil facilities, commemorated the anniversary of the killing of a Palestinian American boy, and highlighted efforts to combat Islamophobia within the United States.

These actions underscore the administration's urgency to prevent the ongoing conflict, which has already extended beyond Gaza, from escalating into a broader regional war that could involve the U.S. and exacerbate anti-American sentiment among Muslim communities.

Moreover, these developments may provide a political advantage to Vice President Kamala Harris in her presidential bid against Donald Trump if it seems that Biden is adopting a tougher stance on Israel.

This is especially relevant in swing states like Michigan, home to a significant population of Arab and Muslim Americans. Many of these voters, along with younger, more progressive individuals in Michigan and beyond, are hesitant to support Harris unless she distances herself from Biden’s firm support for Israel amid the ongoing conflict.

Conversely, appearing too critical of Israel could alienate many pro-Israel constituents within the Jewish community and others whom Trump has been actively courting.

In Michigan, approximately 1 percent of the population is Jewish, while around 3 percent have Middle Eastern or North African ancestry—both vital voting demographics in a state where Harris and Trump are in a close contest.

Biden has faced scrutiny from the second group, with accusations of lacking sufficient influence over Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel’s conduct in the conflict.

“They’re working to fight this narrative that Bibi is in the driver’s seat escalating and Biden is just sitting in the passenger seat watching this escalate, while offering lukewarm criticisms on the side,” said one former administration official who regularly converses with current officials regarding Middle East policy. “It’s a tough narrative to fight.” The former official requested anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.

Biden administration spokespersons have denied that recent actions were motivated by electoral concerns. “The race was not a factor at all,” State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller stated on Tuesday.

“The president has been very consistent in expressing our concerns to the Israelis about humanitarian assistance getting into Gaza, and certainly he’s mindful of our efforts to communicate those concerns to the Israelis,” commented White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby.

A Harris campaign spokesperson opted not to comment, nor did a spokesperson for the Israeli Embassy in Washington.

At times, Biden and his aides have conveyed mixed signals about U.S. objectives. For instance, some senior aides quietly backed Israel’s increased efforts against Hezbollah militants in Lebanon while other parts of the administration collaborated with allies on a 21-day cease-fire proposal. Recently, the administration has downplayed the urgency for an immediate cease-fire in Lebanon.

Some of this ambiguous messaging arises from U.S. calculations that supporting Israel gives the Biden administration more leverage over its actions, alongside a desire to weaken Iran.

However, each conflict supported by the U.S. raises civilian casualties. Each image of innocent Palestinians, Lebanese, or others caught in crossfire triggers questions about America’s involvement.

“Biden is a lame duck president, and there’s only so much he can do. On the other hand, there are things he could still be doing, like not sending offensive weapons,” remarked one Democratic House member, who supports the president but disagrees with Israel’s military policies. “I think that would be an important signal. And we’ve been unwilling to do that.”

Harris is cognizant of this situation and has at times advocated more strongly than Biden for civilian protection in areas like the Gaza Strip.

Nevertheless, she has been careful to align with Biden, refraining from calling for a cessation of U.S. weapons shipments to Israel. Biden has largely allowed these transfers to continue, asserting that Israel has the right to defend itself against adversaries such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran's Islamist regime.

Ultimately, Israel maintains significant control over the situation on the ground, with officials asserting they will act in their national interest.

Netanyahu, a staunch supporter of Trump, would likely prefer to see Harris defeated in the upcoming election. However, Biden administration actions suggest an effort to encourage Netanyahu to reconsider his approach.

Concerns exist within the U.S. about possible Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear or oil facilities in retaliation against Tehran, which could escalate tensions between the two nations and lead to a spike in global energy prices. Reports indicated that Netanyahu informed U.S. officials that Israel would refrain from targeting such facilities, suggesting he might be heeding U.S. counsel.

A senior U.S. official confirmed these reports, noting that Israel indicated it would focus instead on military targets and sensitive Iranian infrastructure. Nonetheless, the White House recognizes that Netanyahu’s history of following through on commitments made during the conflict has been inconsistent.

Additionally, over the weekend, the Biden administration announced the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system to Israel, accompanied by 100 U.S. troops to operate it, hoping to dissuade Iranian retaliation.

Reports this week indicated that Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had warned senior Israeli officials that Israel must improve conditions in Gaza or risk violating U.S. laws that could impose restrictions on military aid.

This letter, confirmed by administration officials on Tuesday, is notably firm in tone and details the dire humanitarian crisis. It provides Israel with a 30-day window to demonstrate efforts to alleviate the situation—elapsed after the presidential election.

However, the U.S. has had ample opportunities over the past year to determine whether Israeli actions on the battlefield contravene U.S. and international laws, yet American officials have largely avoided the subject, frustrating human rights advocates.

“The Muslim-American community as a whole will likely see this effort as disingenuous,” remarked Yasmine Taeb, a notable progressive activist connected with the White House. “If you actually cared about Muslim lives, Palestinian lives, you would stop sending the arms that are used to kill them every single day.”

Despite this, the letter serves as a reference for Biden aides when engaged in discussions about the U.S.'s limited actions to assist Palestinian civilians facing significant hardships, such as displacement and food insecurity.

Miller, addressing reporters during his regular briefing, asserted that past Biden administration interventions have increased humanitarian aid to Gaza and that such letters can indeed impact the situation.

The administration is also actively making efforts to demonstrate its concern for Arab and Muslim lives, both in the Middle East and domestically in the U.S.

Biden issued a statement on Monday marking the killing of a 6-year-old Palestinian American boy in Illinois one year prior, declaring, “there is no place for hate in America, including hatred of Palestinians, Arabs, and Muslims.”

The White House also released a fact sheet outlining initiatives taken over the past year to combat anti-Arab and Islamophobic hate, ensuring that Harris’s name was mentioned. This fact sheet and statement were distributed to progressive activists.

Whether these efforts will resonate with voters remains uncertain, but some segments of the Muslim American community are showing increased willingness to support Harris in recent weeks.

This month, Harris received endorsements from the American Muslims in National Security group and a coalition of 25 prominent Islamic leaders, who stated that voting for Harris "far outweighs the harms of the other options."

Jonathan Lemire contributed to this report.

Sanya Singh contributed to this report for TROIB News