"Annexing Canada: How It Would Transform American Politics"
We interpreted Trump’s comments about Canada becoming the 51st state in a literal sense rather than a serious one.
TroibNews 
Donald Trump has suggested that Canada should become the 51st state, a notion he has repeatedly teased but not presented earnestly. In a social media post following Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's announcement of his resignation, Trump remarked that “many people in Canada LOVE being the 51st State.” He reiterated this sentiment the next day.
Given this ongoing jest from Trump, Score chose to explore the hypothetical scenario of Canada joining the United States and its potential political consequences.
Our analysis indicates that Democrats would gain substantially, with Canada likely acting as another California—an influential blue state poised to add numerous House seats and enhance Democratic strength in the Electoral College.
The consensus among our Canadian colleagues suggests that the nation would lean Democratic, evidenced by a hypothetical preelection poll showing Canadians favoring Kamala Harris over Trump by a significant margin.
If Canada were part of the U.S., Democrats would only need to win two battleground states in the 2028 presidential election.
Let’s delve into the numbers.
In terms of the Senate, Canada would be allotted two senators, who would likely be Democrats given the country’s liberal stance. This would alter the current Congressional breakdown slightly, resulting in 53 Republicans and 49 Democrats in the Senate. Republicans could sustain the loss of two senators with Vice President-elect JD Vance casting the tie-breaking vote if necessary.
The House of Representatives distribution would be more complex. To maintain its current count of 435 members, Canada would gain 45 seats—just shy of California's 46 seats.
This adjustment would mean that 31 states would see a reduction in their House representation. California would lose six seats; Texas would drop four; Florida three; New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina would each lose two; and around two dozen other states would each forfeit one seat.
Consequently, this reshuffle would likely bolster Democratic representation in the House, although the exact effect is uncertain due to redistricting. The transfer of congressional seats can result in a blue state losing a red seat, and some of Canada’s 45 districts may lean Republican. The manipulation of district boundaries by either party could also greatly influence election results.
The influx of House seats to Canada would lead to a notable reshaping of the Electoral College, affecting future presidential elections.
Currently, blue states account for 226 electoral votes, red states for 219, and the seven key battlegrounds—Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona—total 93.
With Canada contributing 47 electoral votes, Democrats would start an election cycle with 253 votes, while Republicans would hold 202, leaving 85 votes up for contention.
To secure a majority of the 540 total electoral votes, the Democratic nominee would need just 18 votes, requiring the win of only two battleground states. In contrast, Republicans would need victories in at least five battleground states.
This presents a considerable challenge for Republicans, albeit not impossible. Trump himself has managed to push through such scenarios before.
Nonetheless, the implications of the 2028 elections could be quite fascinating—especially if Greenland were to become the 52nd state.
This piece was originally published in the Morning Score newsletter. Interested in receiving this newsletter daily? Sign up for PMG Pro to get insights and crucial updates on major news stories every weekday.
Aarav Patel contributed to this report for TROIB News
Given this ongoing jest from Trump, Score chose to explore the hypothetical scenario of Canada joining the United States and its potential political consequences.
Our analysis indicates that Democrats would gain substantially, with Canada likely acting as another California—an influential blue state poised to add numerous House seats and enhance Democratic strength in the Electoral College.
The consensus among our Canadian colleagues suggests that the nation would lean Democratic, evidenced by a hypothetical preelection poll showing Canadians favoring Kamala Harris over Trump by a significant margin.
If Canada were part of the U.S., Democrats would only need to win two battleground states in the 2028 presidential election.
Let’s delve into the numbers.
In terms of the Senate, Canada would be allotted two senators, who would likely be Democrats given the country’s liberal stance. This would alter the current Congressional breakdown slightly, resulting in 53 Republicans and 49 Democrats in the Senate. Republicans could sustain the loss of two senators with Vice President-elect JD Vance casting the tie-breaking vote if necessary.
The House of Representatives distribution would be more complex. To maintain its current count of 435 members, Canada would gain 45 seats—just shy of California's 46 seats.
This adjustment would mean that 31 states would see a reduction in their House representation. California would lose six seats; Texas would drop four; Florida three; New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina would each lose two; and around two dozen other states would each forfeit one seat.
Consequently, this reshuffle would likely bolster Democratic representation in the House, although the exact effect is uncertain due to redistricting. The transfer of congressional seats can result in a blue state losing a red seat, and some of Canada’s 45 districts may lean Republican. The manipulation of district boundaries by either party could also greatly influence election results.
The influx of House seats to Canada would lead to a notable reshaping of the Electoral College, affecting future presidential elections.
Currently, blue states account for 226 electoral votes, red states for 219, and the seven key battlegrounds—Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona—total 93.
With Canada contributing 47 electoral votes, Democrats would start an election cycle with 253 votes, while Republicans would hold 202, leaving 85 votes up for contention.
To secure a majority of the 540 total electoral votes, the Democratic nominee would need just 18 votes, requiring the win of only two battleground states. In contrast, Republicans would need victories in at least five battleground states.
This presents a considerable challenge for Republicans, albeit not impossible. Trump himself has managed to push through such scenarios before.
Nonetheless, the implications of the 2028 elections could be quite fascinating—especially if Greenland were to become the 52nd state.
This piece was originally published in the Morning Score newsletter. Interested in receiving this newsletter daily? Sign up for PMG Pro to get insights and crucial updates on major news stories every weekday.
Aarav Patel contributed to this report for TROIB News
