"Throwing money down a well": McCarthy's revenge tour concludes

Rep. Matt Gaetz's significant win this week marked a series of setbacks for supporters of Kevin McCarthy, leaving them uncertain about the continuation of their vendetta in 2026.

"Throwing money down a well": McCarthy's revenge tour concludes
Kevin McCarthy’s revenge tour has concluded — and it may be permanent.

The former speaker’s costly initiative aimed at primarying the eight Republicans who voted to remove him from power wrapped up this week with minimal results. Representative Matt Gaetz of Florida, who was central to McCarthy’s ousting, decisively won his primary on Tuesday by approximately 45 points.

This setback was not an isolated incident. Allies of McCarthy invested millions against Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), yet she emerged victorious by 27 points. Additionally, three other targeted Republicans secured easy primary wins, with two of them running uncontested, while two others chose to retire. The sole victory for McCarthy's faction came against Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), which can be attributed largely to Good’s fallout with former President Donald Trump. That race was so close it required a recount.

Supporters of McCarthy contend that the defeat of Good signifies a successful campaign, emphasizing the challenges of unseating incumbents. They also assert that they influenced Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) to retire after a brief Senate campaign. Furthermore, they have the funds to continue their efforts: a source familiar with the fundraising revealed that groups aligned with McCarthy have amassed over $50 million since January 1.

Despite these claims, there is uncertainty among McCarthy’s allies about the prospect of resuming their campaign in 2026. Some key operatives are leaving the option open, stating they are continuing to gather opposition research on certain dissenters. They hope to hinder Gaetz's potential gubernatorial ambitions in Florida. Should Good seek a rematch — which he has suggested — or if the House Ethics Committee imposes sanctions on Mace for alleged improper spending, they might reconsider their involvement.

However, they are not making any bold declarations about pursuing further action.

“We always knew we would get at least one,” said Brian O. Walsh, a senior figure among McCarthy's supporters. “And our research efforts are ongoing.”

Since leaving Congress in December, following his gavel loss two months prior, McCarthy has struggled to establish a foothold outside of his significant fundraising endeavors and recruitment capabilities. His ousting by his own party has exposed a crucial weakness: although he excels in fundraising, he wields substantially less influence over the MAGA base compared to other Republicans.

Meanwhile, some GOP members have expressed frustration over McCarthy's perceived misallocation of funds on a personal vendetta, arguing that those resources could have instead bolstered the party's majority. His opponents celebrate their victories, with some highlighting McCarthy's spending against them as evidence of their separation from the Washington establishment.

Rep. Tim Burchett of Tennessee, one of the so-called “Gaetz Eight,” remarked that future funding for McCarthy’s efforts would essentially be “throwing money down a well.”

“He’ll never be over it. Until his dying day, until he has a dollar left, he’ll be in everybody’s races. … People will probably still continue to give him money,” Burchett added.

In response, McCarthy’s allies point out that he has also financed campaigns for Republicans in competitive districts and reference the hundreds of millions he has raised over his political career. They assert he is entitled to decide how to allocate his funds.

“I'm not gonna judge Kevin and how he spends his money,” said Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-Fla.), a staunch supporter of McCarthy. “He raised it. So he has the right to decide how to use it.”

McCarthy’s focus has now returned to Gaetz, his primary adversary. His associates acknowledged before Gaetz's recent primary that defeating him would be unlikely, but they circulated a memo asserting that their advertisements this cycle had “clearly damaged his ability to win a Governor’s race.”

Gaetz has denied any current plans for a gubernatorial run, but many in Florida's Republican circles anticipate he will pursue that open seat in 2026. Should Gaetz run for the House again, party members indicate they have a more formidable primary challenger in mind who was unable to enter the race in 2024.

Some of McCarthy’s supporters are actively encouraging him to keep targeting Gaetz, a constant source of contention for congressional leaders who has provoked annoyance among GOP colleagues. Their rivalry is intense, with both often taking jabs at each other publicly and privately.

“I’m tickled that Kevin won over Bob Good and he was behind the scenes on Rosendale,” noted one GOP lawmaker, who spoke anonymously to candidly address the situation, asserting that McCarthy’s efforts will also “make it hard for Matt Gaetz to ever run for statewide office.”

In contrast, Gaetz and his team are dismissive of the threats posed by McCarthy. Several of McCarthy's targets have turned the former speaker into a figure that boosts their fundraising efforts. Gaetz even mocked McCarthy during his primary night speech, challenging him to spend even more in 2026.

“Facing certain defeat, Team Kevin leaked a memo Monday that he spent millions to ‘weaken’ me for Governor in 2026,” Gaetz shared in a message to PMG. “They say they’re going to keep attacking me. I sure hope they do. It shows all Floridians who I’m fighting.”

Other incumbents similarly leveraged McCarthy's support as a negative during their campaigns. Mace labeled her opponent, Catherine Templeton, as McCarthy’s “hand-picked puppet.” While Templeton had a brief meeting with Walsh, she maintained that she was not recruited by the former speaker and had no personal ties to him.

Despite her loss, Templeton stated that she would view the race as a “win for McCarthy” since his funding made her a credible candidate. She attributed her defeat to other issues, including her initial lack of name recognition, Trump’s endorsement of Mace, and significant spending for the incumbent from the influential Club for Growth.

“She shouldn't have had to break a sweat to beat me, and she had to break a sweat,” Templeton remarked. “I wouldn't look at the scoreboard with Ws or Ls. She was vulnerable. She knew she was vulnerable.”

In Rep. Eli Crane’s (R-Ariz.) primary, McCarthy’s operation didn’t invest heavily, although a McCarthy-aligned group aired ads criticizing Crane’s stance on border issues. Crane alleged that McCarthy was involved in recruiting his primary opponent, Jack Smith, who lost by more than 60 points, although Smith denied having any links to McCarthy.

Overall, McCarthy’s operation allocated significant funds, with America Fund — which receives backing from the American Prosperity Alliance, associated with Walsh — contributing $10 million to various super PACs that pressured challengers to Mace, Good, and Gaetz, as evidenced by Federal Election Commission filings.

Good was the only Republican incumbent to lose a primary not due to redistricting this cycle, with that election ultimately going to a recount. McCarthy’s supporters believed four factors contributed to that defeat: a weak incumbent, a strong challenger, Trump's endorsement, and their financial investment.

They were unable to replicate this formula in other races.

Mace benefitted from a primary timing that coincided with Trump's conviction, providing her with a boost as he backed her. Gaetz's strong local support made him a difficult target by any standard. Both candidates won decisively.

Two other critics of McCarthy, Burchett and Rep. Andy Biggs (Ariz.), faced no primary challengers.

Despite attempts by McCarthy’s supporters to recruit a GOP challenger against Burchett, those efforts backfired and only alienated his voters. Burchett shared a similar sentiment voiced during a recent visit to Gaetz’s district.

“People don’t appreciate outside money,” Burchett stated. “And nobody knows a district better than the person who lives there.”

Gary Fineout contributed to this report.

Lucas Dupont contributed to this report for TROIB News