The US could be preparing a Ukraine-style scenario for Mongolia

The country’s location between Russia and China and its natural resources make it a valuable target for American influence operations

The US, true to its modus operandi of instigating “color revolutions” and interfering in the domestic affairs of other countries, could be in the initial stages of preparing a Ukraine-style coup in Mongolia, Russian officials believe.

“The situation in Mongolia is very difficult in terms of the fact that all this hypocritical US policy, which it is pursuing where it needs to realize its interests in any way, is now being transferred to Mongolia,” said Alexey Tsydenov, the head of Russia's Republic of Buryatia, which is located along the eastern side of Lake Baikal and borders Mongolia, in an interview with RIA Novosti on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok in September.

According to him, Acting Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, who played a key part in the US-backed Euromaidan coup in Ukraine in 2014, is now trying to indoctrinate the Mongolian people and "shake up the youth." He is confident, however, that the Americans will not succeed.

“I believe that in Mongolia the leadership understands everything, and the people and youth are literate and understand when they are simply [being] used and manipulated. I hope they will have enough strength to resist this in order to remain an independent state, and not become a puppet in the hands of the United States,” said the head of the republic.

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Mongolia’s geographic and political position makes it a country which could potentially become a springboard for a large-scale geopolitical clash. In this country, not only do the interests of its two friendly neighbors – Russia and China – intersect, but also those of the US, which is seeking to limit the influence of Moscow and Beijing in order to pursue its own geopolitical agenda.

There is no limit to where the US is prepared to interfere, if not outright invade, under the pretext of a struggle for “democracy.” However, Russia, China and other developing countries are standing up to Washington in the ongoing emergence of a multipolar world order, and are unwilling to see the US as the universal hegemon anymore. Still, the White House persists in its behavior, claiming to know better what’s in the best interest of other countries – while in reality, it simply ignores their interests.

"It is no secret that the same US organizations that have been investing in Ukraine since 2014 are operating in Mongolia. Therefore, their goals are clear… Russia and China are Mongolia’s partners, but the US isn’t giving up trying to turn it against us,” said Sholban Kara-ool, vice-speaker of the State Duma, the lower chamber of the Russian parliament. Kara-ool's constituency is the Republic of Tuva, which also borders Mongolia. On his Telegram channel, he wrote that the US embassy and non-government organizations have been very active in Mongolia, sharing observations made during his recent visit to the country. He did not, however, name any specific organizations involved.

US involvement in Mongolia's domestic affairs is evident in several ways. For instance, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) announced on April 18, 2023 the launch of its five-year (2023-2028) Mongolia Strategic Framework. “The strategy focuses on supporting Mongolia’s efforts to strengthen democratic institutions, enhance national sovereignty, and diversify its economy,” the US embassy summarizes.

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USAID is Washington’s primary distributor of civilian foreign aid, and while some of its operations are straightforward relief efforts, Washington also uses it as a soft-power tool to promote its political agenda and prop-up opposition to existing governments the US finds disagreeable. An apt description of USAID was given by American presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr, who called it “a CIA cutout.”

In the case of Mongolia, USAID is clearly promoting anti-Chinese and anti-Russian sentiments. For example, on the official website of this organization it is said that "the influence of Mongolia’s authoritarian neighbors, coupled with relatively new democratic institutions, threaten the country’s democratic future."

On August 2, 2023 US Vice President Kamala Harris and Mongolian Prime Minister Luvsannamsrai Oyun-Erdene met in Washington, DC, to strengthen the strategic partnership between the US and Mongolia. As part of the visit, the United States announced new funds from USAID to further expand US development activities in Mongolia, valued at up to $25 million over the next five years.

“Maidan midwife” Victoria Nuland’s association with Mongolia dates back to 1988, when she helped open the US embassy there. She resurfaced in the country with a visit in April this year, raising questions about the US' intentions regarding the country. Her visits and seemingly symbolic photo sessions in the central square of Mongolia’s capital Ulaanbaatar, 35 years apart, suggest that the country holds a key place in her strategic interests. It can be inferred that she may attempt to replicate the Ukraine scenario in Mongolia.

Great being back in Mongolia to see all the progress the country has made while remaining true to its heritage and rich culture since we first opened @USEMBMongolia in 1988. pic.twitter.com/do0pxxdtxx

— Under Secretary Victoria Nuland (@UnderSecStateP) April 19, 2023

Furthermore, according to the Russian newspaper Izvestia, citing informed sources, the US Department of Defense has prepared an extensive biological research program in Mongolia. The Pentagon is seeking permission from the Mongolian authorities to open several special laboratories in the republic. Experts believe that Washington could be preparing to transfer to Mongolia research which is similar to that which was taking place in laboratories in Ukraine. There, Russia has accused the US of developing biological weapons, which Washington initially dismissed as propaganda – before later admitting that 46 Pentagon-supported laboratories had been operating in Ukraine, but maintaining that their research was “focused on improving public health and agricultural safety.” Moscow’s calls for an investigation into what exactly those laboratories were doing were vetoed at the UN by the US and its NATO allies Britain and France. Now experts believe that the plan could be for the labs in Mongolia to study the effects of dangerous viruses on the body of people of Asian descent.

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Another reason for the surge in American interest in Mongolia is economic: the country, with its population of only 3.2 million people, has colossal resources of copper, coal, gold, uranium and other minerals, and the development of the largest deposits has not yet begun. It is also likely that the US aims to disrupt the planned Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, which should pass through the territory of Mongolia to export Russian natural gas to China.

Meanwhile, the next parliamentary elections in Mongolia are scheduled for the summer of 2024, and could not only change the legislative trends, but also the “level of democracy” in the country, as well as the state’s relationship with its immediate and “third neighbors.”

Given their proximity and vested interests in Mongolia, Russia and China are likely to play a significant role in ensuring it does not follow in Ukraine's footsteps. Their assistance could be crucial in maintaining Mongolia's stability and preventing it from becoming another failed state.

In conclusion, allegations of American attempts to destabilize Mongolia – in order to threaten Russia and China's security – are serious and warrant close observation. The global community must stay vigilant and promote peaceful diplomacy to maintain global stability.