The Most Inaccurate Political Forecasts of 2024
This article examines the most significant misjudgments of the year, analyzing the impact of Joe Biden’s debate performance alongside the repercussions of Donald Trump's criminal conviction.
TroibNews 
One of the most glaringly incorrect predictions regarding 2024 was a commonly held belief just a year prior: that the upcoming presidential election would be “boring.”
Boring? Just look at an eight-day span in July. On the 13th, former President Donald Trump faced a near-fatal shooting. By the 18th, he was on stage at the Republican National Convention, recounting this incident while sporting an enormous bandage on his right ear. Then, on the 21st, President Joe Biden effectively euthanized his own reelection campaign, paving the way for Vice President Kamala Harris to become the Democratic Party’s de facto candidate with only a little over 100 days left until the election. Chaotic, frenzied, news-packed? Absolutely. Boring? Far from it.
If you shared this mistaken expectation, you’re certainly not alone. Human nature often leads us to be wrong, surprised, and repeatedly have our expectations dashed.
For your amusement — and as a reminder to approach the future with humility — here’s a collection of the most misguided predictions about the political landscape in 2024.
**Joe Biden won’t pardon Hunter**
Predicted by: John Harwood, among others.
Hunter Biden faced significant legal issues — he was convicted on three counts in a federal gun case and separately pleaded guilty to nine charges related to failing to pay about $1.4 million in taxes from 2016 to 2020. This was a considerable headache for his father throughout the year.
Yet, President Joe Biden and his advisors consistently maintained that his son would not receive any special treatment or presidential pardons. When asked if he ruled out a pardon for his son, Biden responded, “Yes.” On July 25, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre reiterated, “It’s still a no. It will be a no.” After Trump won the election, she faced more queries about a potential pardon, once again declaring, “Our answer stands, which is no.” However, on December 1, Biden pardoned Hunter, leaving many who believed in the president’s previous denials embarrassed. “People who insist Biden will pardon Hunter after specifically ruling it out are telling on themselves,” Harwood tweeted on June 13, highlighting this unexpected twist.
**Kamala Harris will win the presidential election**
Predicted by: Rob Reiner, among many others.
In the final weeks of the campaign, optimism for Democrats surged. Harris showed strong poll numbers, and her campaign efforts appeared superior to Trump’s. Her rally crowds were massive, and sentiment shifted dramatically.
Rob Reiner expressed this enthusiasm on the eve of the election, predicting Harris’ imminent victory with evocative language: “A woman gave birth to each and every one of us. Tomorrow a woman will give birth to a renewal of our Democracy.”
However, as we now know, Trump won both the Electoral College and the popular vote, marking the first time in two decades that a Republican candidate had garnered at least a plurality of votes.
**Elon Musk will either lose control of Twitter or sell it**
Predicted by: Scott Galloway.
Author Scott Galloway speculated that Musk would likely dispose of Twitter, citing potential financial reasons. While one can debate the platform’s quality or investment value, it’s undeniable that Musk remains firmly in charge, using the site to project his influence rather than the users' interests.
**The 2024 election will see a “landslide of election rigging claims,” with the Supreme Court intervening for a Trump presidency**
Predicted by: Scott Adams.
Certain parts of the MAGA internet uphold the notion that Trump can do no wrong. Criminal charges? Merely a byproduct of a corrupt justice system. Negative revelations from former aides? Just petty jealousy. When Trump loses, it's a rigged election.
Adams wrote on November 2 that there would soon be “a landslide of election rigging claims. More than courts can handle before Jan 6th... Trump will get the most real votes...” None of this materialized, of course. Ironically, according to election deniers' reasoning, Democrats could rig an election when Trump was in power but suddenly lacked the capability when Biden took over.
**If Trump wins, there will be riots in Washington and New York**
Predicted by: Michael McKenna.
McKenna correctly anticipated Trump’s victory but mistakenly foresaw riots erupting in major cities. While there were a few demonstrations, neither Washington nor New York experienced significant unrest.
**Trump will lose his immunity case, go to trial on March 4, and spend the rest of his life in prison**
Predicted by: George Conway.
Originally, Trump did lose the immunity case at the federal level and in appeals, but the Supreme Court later ruled in his favor, declaring he had immunity for certain presidential actions. The trial initially set for March 4 was never held. Moreover, Trump, rather than heading to prison, has instead surged toward a return to the White House.
**Biden will beat Trump**
Predicted by: Many people.
Numerous voices, including journalist Juan Williams, outlined reasons Biden appeared poised to succeed, given favorable economic factors and historical trends favoring incumbents. This optimism proved unwarranted as the election unfolded.
**Joe Biden will benefit from an early debate**
Predicted by: Biden’s advisers.
Facing a robust lead from Trump, Biden’s team aimed to revitalize his campaign by proposing an early debate. Instead, viewers noted Biden’s apparent decline, which ultimately hurt his campaign, leading to concerns about how his performance would affect down-ballot candidates.
**Trump will no-show his debate with Biden**
Predicted by: James Carville.
The prediction was incorrect, as Trump did participate in the debate series.
**The markets will crash if Trump is convicted in New York**
Predicted by: John Carney.
Despite Trump’s conviction, the stock market did not plummet; in fact, it saw notable gains afterward.
**Matt Gaetz will be the next attorney general**
Predicted by: Mike Engleman and @catturd2.
Despite enthusiastic predictions from some supporters, allegations against Gaetz led to his nomination being withdrawn amid scandal.
**RFK Jr. won’t be picked to lead HHS**
Predicted by: Howard Lutnick.
Lutnick claimed RFK Jr. wouldn’t be appointed as Secretary of Health and Human Services, only to be proven wrong shortly after.
**Trump will pick a female running mate**
Predicted by: Nikole Killion and others.
Speculation centered around a potential female VP for Trump due to prevailing cultural climate concerns, but he ultimately chose a male running mate, solidifying his existing core support.
**History will repeat itself with a chaotic Democratic convention in Chicago**
Predicted by: Bill McGurn and others.
Though some anticipated a convention reminiscent of 1968’s tumult, the 2024 event proved relatively orderly, with a few notable exceptions.
**The “GOP will be splintered more than it has been in decades”**
Predicted by: Benjamin Rothove.
Expectations of significant fractures within the GOP failed to materialize; instead, the party remained unified under Trump’s leadership, controlling key governmental branches.
**Nikki Haley will be the GOP nominee**
Predicted by: Jonathan Rauch and Paul Poast.
Haley only secured victories in two primaries, while Trump achieved a sweeping nomination, leading to uncertainty about Haley's future within the party.
**Nikki Haley will be the No Labels candidate for president**
Predicted by: Ari Fleischer.
Despite earlier speculation about a third-party candidacy, Haley ended her presidential campaign after underwhelming performance on Super Tuesday.
**Netanyahu will be unseated as Israeli prime minister**
Predicted by: Sigal Samuel.
Despite ongoing controversies around his leadership amid the Gaza war, Netanyahu’s position remained stable into December 2024.
**Immigration, border or asylum legislation will pass**
Predicted by: Matthew Yglesias.
Despite predictions of a bipartisan agreement, efforts to pass significant legislation faltered, largely due to Trump’s influence.
**The “13 keys” model will correctly predict the election**
Predicted by: Allan Lichtman.
For over 40 years, Lichtman’s model accurately forecasted election outcomes, but this time it failed as he anticipated a Harris victory over Trump.
In the aftermath of the 2024 election, it’s clear that predictions can often miss the mark. As we reflect on these miscalculations, humility in forecasting the future is a valuable lesson.
Ramin Sohrabi contributed to this report for TROIB News
Boring? Just look at an eight-day span in July. On the 13th, former President Donald Trump faced a near-fatal shooting. By the 18th, he was on stage at the Republican National Convention, recounting this incident while sporting an enormous bandage on his right ear. Then, on the 21st, President Joe Biden effectively euthanized his own reelection campaign, paving the way for Vice President Kamala Harris to become the Democratic Party’s de facto candidate with only a little over 100 days left until the election. Chaotic, frenzied, news-packed? Absolutely. Boring? Far from it.
If you shared this mistaken expectation, you’re certainly not alone. Human nature often leads us to be wrong, surprised, and repeatedly have our expectations dashed.
For your amusement — and as a reminder to approach the future with humility — here’s a collection of the most misguided predictions about the political landscape in 2024.
**Joe Biden won’t pardon Hunter**
Predicted by: John Harwood, among others.
Hunter Biden faced significant legal issues — he was convicted on three counts in a federal gun case and separately pleaded guilty to nine charges related to failing to pay about $1.4 million in taxes from 2016 to 2020. This was a considerable headache for his father throughout the year.
Yet, President Joe Biden and his advisors consistently maintained that his son would not receive any special treatment or presidential pardons. When asked if he ruled out a pardon for his son, Biden responded, “Yes.” On July 25, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre reiterated, “It’s still a no. It will be a no.” After Trump won the election, she faced more queries about a potential pardon, once again declaring, “Our answer stands, which is no.” However, on December 1, Biden pardoned Hunter, leaving many who believed in the president’s previous denials embarrassed. “People who insist Biden will pardon Hunter after specifically ruling it out are telling on themselves,” Harwood tweeted on June 13, highlighting this unexpected twist.
**Kamala Harris will win the presidential election**
Predicted by: Rob Reiner, among many others.
In the final weeks of the campaign, optimism for Democrats surged. Harris showed strong poll numbers, and her campaign efforts appeared superior to Trump’s. Her rally crowds were massive, and sentiment shifted dramatically.
Rob Reiner expressed this enthusiasm on the eve of the election, predicting Harris’ imminent victory with evocative language: “A woman gave birth to each and every one of us. Tomorrow a woman will give birth to a renewal of our Democracy.”
However, as we now know, Trump won both the Electoral College and the popular vote, marking the first time in two decades that a Republican candidate had garnered at least a plurality of votes.
**Elon Musk will either lose control of Twitter or sell it**
Predicted by: Scott Galloway.
Author Scott Galloway speculated that Musk would likely dispose of Twitter, citing potential financial reasons. While one can debate the platform’s quality or investment value, it’s undeniable that Musk remains firmly in charge, using the site to project his influence rather than the users' interests.
**The 2024 election will see a “landslide of election rigging claims,” with the Supreme Court intervening for a Trump presidency**
Predicted by: Scott Adams.
Certain parts of the MAGA internet uphold the notion that Trump can do no wrong. Criminal charges? Merely a byproduct of a corrupt justice system. Negative revelations from former aides? Just petty jealousy. When Trump loses, it's a rigged election.
Adams wrote on November 2 that there would soon be “a landslide of election rigging claims. More than courts can handle before Jan 6th... Trump will get the most real votes...” None of this materialized, of course. Ironically, according to election deniers' reasoning, Democrats could rig an election when Trump was in power but suddenly lacked the capability when Biden took over.
**If Trump wins, there will be riots in Washington and New York**
Predicted by: Michael McKenna.
McKenna correctly anticipated Trump’s victory but mistakenly foresaw riots erupting in major cities. While there were a few demonstrations, neither Washington nor New York experienced significant unrest.
**Trump will lose his immunity case, go to trial on March 4, and spend the rest of his life in prison**
Predicted by: George Conway.
Originally, Trump did lose the immunity case at the federal level and in appeals, but the Supreme Court later ruled in his favor, declaring he had immunity for certain presidential actions. The trial initially set for March 4 was never held. Moreover, Trump, rather than heading to prison, has instead surged toward a return to the White House.
**Biden will beat Trump**
Predicted by: Many people.
Numerous voices, including journalist Juan Williams, outlined reasons Biden appeared poised to succeed, given favorable economic factors and historical trends favoring incumbents. This optimism proved unwarranted as the election unfolded.
**Joe Biden will benefit from an early debate**
Predicted by: Biden’s advisers.
Facing a robust lead from Trump, Biden’s team aimed to revitalize his campaign by proposing an early debate. Instead, viewers noted Biden’s apparent decline, which ultimately hurt his campaign, leading to concerns about how his performance would affect down-ballot candidates.
**Trump will no-show his debate with Biden**
Predicted by: James Carville.
The prediction was incorrect, as Trump did participate in the debate series.
**The markets will crash if Trump is convicted in New York**
Predicted by: John Carney.
Despite Trump’s conviction, the stock market did not plummet; in fact, it saw notable gains afterward.
**Matt Gaetz will be the next attorney general**
Predicted by: Mike Engleman and @catturd2.
Despite enthusiastic predictions from some supporters, allegations against Gaetz led to his nomination being withdrawn amid scandal.
**RFK Jr. won’t be picked to lead HHS**
Predicted by: Howard Lutnick.
Lutnick claimed RFK Jr. wouldn’t be appointed as Secretary of Health and Human Services, only to be proven wrong shortly after.
**Trump will pick a female running mate**
Predicted by: Nikole Killion and others.
Speculation centered around a potential female VP for Trump due to prevailing cultural climate concerns, but he ultimately chose a male running mate, solidifying his existing core support.
**History will repeat itself with a chaotic Democratic convention in Chicago**
Predicted by: Bill McGurn and others.
Though some anticipated a convention reminiscent of 1968’s tumult, the 2024 event proved relatively orderly, with a few notable exceptions.
**The “GOP will be splintered more than it has been in decades”**
Predicted by: Benjamin Rothove.
Expectations of significant fractures within the GOP failed to materialize; instead, the party remained unified under Trump’s leadership, controlling key governmental branches.
**Nikki Haley will be the GOP nominee**
Predicted by: Jonathan Rauch and Paul Poast.
Haley only secured victories in two primaries, while Trump achieved a sweeping nomination, leading to uncertainty about Haley's future within the party.
**Nikki Haley will be the No Labels candidate for president**
Predicted by: Ari Fleischer.
Despite earlier speculation about a third-party candidacy, Haley ended her presidential campaign after underwhelming performance on Super Tuesday.
**Netanyahu will be unseated as Israeli prime minister**
Predicted by: Sigal Samuel.
Despite ongoing controversies around his leadership amid the Gaza war, Netanyahu’s position remained stable into December 2024.
**Immigration, border or asylum legislation will pass**
Predicted by: Matthew Yglesias.
Despite predictions of a bipartisan agreement, efforts to pass significant legislation faltered, largely due to Trump’s influence.
**The “13 keys” model will correctly predict the election**
Predicted by: Allan Lichtman.
For over 40 years, Lichtman’s model accurately forecasted election outcomes, but this time it failed as he anticipated a Harris victory over Trump.
In the aftermath of the 2024 election, it’s clear that predictions can often miss the mark. As we reflect on these miscalculations, humility in forecasting the future is a valuable lesson.
Ramin Sohrabi contributed to this report for TROIB News
