The Future of Iran in a Changing Syria: What's Next?
Tehran must reassess its regional role and adjust its foreign policy to align with current realities. Read Full Article at RT.com.
TroibNews 
Tehran must reassess its role in the region and adjust its foreign policy to align with the evolving realities.
The resignation of Bashar Assad, who has long served as Syria’s president, symbolizes the conclusion of a significant chapter not only for Syria but for the geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East. This development holds profound implications not just for the people of Syria but also for the broader international community, signaling the start of a new phase in a nation steeped in ancient history and vibrant culture.
Over the past decade, Syria, a cradle of ancient civilizations, has confronted severe trials, including war, widespread destruction, economic turmoil, and the displacement of millions. It has become a focal point for competing global and regional interests. Assad's departure could potentially mark a turning point, offering Syria a chance to emerge from its prolonged cycle of conflict and pursue a renewed future.
Interpretations of this event will vary; some may view it as a long-desired opportunity for reform and reconciliation, while others might see it as a precursor to further uncertainty. Ultimately, the direction Syria will take hinges on the choices made by its people and leaders. The nation now faces the challenging tasks of negotiation, reform, and crafting a governance model that fosters unity amidst its diverse society.
One constant remains: Syria's rich historical narrative must be preserved. The transitions at play could signal the beginning of a fresh era in which the country, drawing lessons from its past and fueled by aspirations for a brighter future, seeks stability and prosperity.
Additionally, Assad's resignation poses a significant setback for Iran’s foreign policy objectives. For Tehran, Syria has long been a crucial element of its ‘Axis of Resistance,’ consisting of alliances and proxy forces aimed at countering Western influence and enhancing Iran's regional role. Consequently, the perception of Iran’s influence throughout the Middle East appears considerably diminished following Assad’s exit.
Iran has relied on Syria as a strategic ally for decades, utilizing it as a key route for supplying weapons and support to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Since the onset of the Syrian civil war in 2011, Tehran has devoted ample resources to bolstering Assad's regime, providing military hardware, economic aid, and deploying military experts and Shiite forces. This alliance has underpinned Iran's broader strategy in the region.
However, with Assad's resignation, the power dynamics are shifting. New political factions in Syria are likely to seek improved ties with Western nations, Arab countries, and Türkiye, distancing themselves from Iran. Furthermore, Assad’s exit weakens Iran's position as a stabilizing force for its allies. The diminishing influence in Syria poses challenges for Hezbollah, which has heavily depended on Syrian support. Armed with the knowledge that Iran's grip on the region has loosened, Israel may intensify its efforts against Iranian assets within Syria.
The loss of Syria as a loyal ally represents a strategic failure for Iran, undermining its regional authority and potentially straining relationships with neighboring states that increasingly perceive Tehran as a source of instability rather than a unifying power.
In the wake of the upheaval in Syria, Iranian officials have made a multitude of statements recently. Notably, Tehran has accused the Ukrainian government of supporting armed opposition factions in Syria with drone supplies. Ibrahim Rezaei, spokesperson for the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, claimed that terrorist groups in Syria now have better equipment thanks to drones provided by Ukraine.
Rezaei insisted on holding the Ukrainian government accountable for these developments. While Kyiv has not yet formally responded, the growing anti-Iranian sentiment among some media outlets linked to Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky hints at the potential validity of Iran’s charges.
In September, significant Turkish media reported that Ukraine's intelligence agency had been in contact with jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). This revelation raised eyebrows as it signaled Ukraine's willingness to engage with groups implicated in terrorist acts against civilians. Photographic evidence purportedly showed a Ukrainian HUR official meeting with an HTS representative.
A high-profile Turkish investigation uncovered evidence of meetings between Ukraine’s HUR and HTS operatives in southeastern Türkiye, not far from the Syrian border. The findings suggested dialogues were likely focused on mutually beneficial strategies for undermining Iran’s position in the area and ramping up military actions against Assad’s forces. The involvement of HTS, classified as a terrorist organization by Türkiye, Russia, and several other nations, particularly alarmed the Turkish public.
The investigation drew from eyewitness testimonies, details about venues reserved for the meetings, and tracked routes of the participants. Analysts in Türkiye emphasized that confirmation of these claims could jeopardize Ankara’s ties with Kyiv. Despite a lack of an official response from the Ukrainian side at that time, the reports sparked backlash among Turkish citizens and political figures. Notably, these articles mysteriously vanished from the Turkish media shortly after publication.
Iran has further alleged that it has credible evidence indicating that representatives of the Ukrainian government trained HTS militants in drone operation and were involved in illicit arms trafficking. Tehran claims the HUR not only provided technical aid to these militants but also instructed them on combat drone usage.
Moreover, Iranian sources contend that Ukraine acted as an intermediary in supplying weapons to HTS through illicit networks, asserting that these actions aim to destabilize the situation in Syria and weaken Iran's influence in the region. As of now, Kyiv has not formally responded to these allegations, but Iranian experts suggest that their claims are supported by technical details related to drone operations and arms supply routes.
Tension between Tehran and Kyiv has escalated, particularly following Kyiv’s unfounded accusations against Iran concerning drone supplies to Russia.
On Sunday evening, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi commented on the situation in Syria, framing it as an “American-Zionist plan to create issues for the Axis of Resistance.” He underscored that Iran’s national security necessitates confronting ISIS in Syria.
Araghchi highlighted that the late Qassem Soleimani, former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, was instrumental in defeating ISIS, asserting that Iran played a pivotal role in combatting the terrorist organization at the request of the Iraqi and Syrian governments. "If we hadn’t fought ISIS in Iraq and Syria, we would have had to fight it within Iran’s borders," he stated.
He also mentioned Iran's encouragement for the Syrian government to engage meaningfully with the opposition, sharing his concerns about the military morale and the hesitance to implement necessary reforms during his last discussions with Assad. Araghchi pointed out that Tehran has consistently recognized that “the United States and Israel were attempting to plunge Iran into successive crises.” He reiterated Syria's essential role in supporting Palestinian causes and maintaining the Axis of Resistance.
In summary, Araghchi reaffirmed that Iran has refrained from interfering in Syrian affairs, consistently advising the Syrian government to pursue political and peaceful dialogue with opposition forces.
Currently, Iran faces substantial challenges in sustaining its influence in Syria. Tehran aims to uphold its strategic connections with Damascus, even if opposition factions assume power. However, Iranian officials harbor doubts about whether the new Syrian leadership will uphold the historically close ties with Iran. For decades, Syria has been a cornerstone of Iran’s strategy in the Middle East, serving as a pivotal ally for the Axis of Resistance and aiding Iran’s support for Hezbollah while pursuing geopolitical ambitions. Yet, the emergence of opposition forces backed by Western nations, Türkiye, and Gulf monarchies, could threaten this cooperative dynamic.
Iranian leadership has articulated a commitment to preserving diplomatic and economic relationships with any new Syrian leadership. Nevertheless, Tehran is increasingly anxious that the new authorities in Syria may seek to improve relations with Arab states and the West at the expense of Iran. Moreover, there are fears that the opposition may actively resist Iranian presence and the broader influence within the country, jeopardizing Iran's position in the region.
These concerns are amplified by the knowledge that many prominent members of the Syrian opposition are closely aligned with the US, Saudi Arabia, and Türkiye, all of whom have historically opposed Iranian influence. Iran does not dismiss the possibility that a shift of power could transform Syria into a base for countering Iranian interests, complicating its regional engagements further.
Nonetheless, Iran intends to leverage its economic, cultural, and religious connections to maintain its foothold in Syria. It may consider new collaboration forms emphasizing infrastructure development and post-conflict reconstruction as strategies for influence retention. However, Iranian experts foresee that the new Syrian administration will tread carefully in partnering with Iran, seeking to avoid dependency on any single state.
The future of Iran-Syria relations in this new context remains uncertain, demanding that Tehran navigate the shifting geopolitical landscape to preserve its influence, especially as traditional methods may fall short.
The dawn of a new era in Syria is set to have far-reaching implications for regional geopolitics, particularly for Iran’s foreign policy. With its deep-rooted historical, cultural, and religious ties to Syria, Tehran must realign its strategy in response to these changes. This juncture signifies the onset of a new chapter in Iran's long-standing foreign policy, historically intertwined with changes in the region. After having played a significant role in the Syrian conflict, Iran now faces pivotal decisions: it must either rethink its influence in Syria or risk losing this strategic partnership.
This moment represents a critical inflection point for Iran, necessitating a reevaluation of its traditional foreign policy strategies. Tehran needs to explore new avenues for influence, such as cultivating economic partnerships, engaging in cultural diplomacy, and contributing to the reconstruction efforts in the war-impacted nation. Additionally, strengthening relations with other regional allies could mitigate the potential fallout from losing its influence.
Conversely, this new reality also provides Iran with potential opportunities. The shift in leadership within Syria may create space for nurturing more balanced relationships, focusing on mutually beneficial economic initiatives alongside military alliances. Such an approach could enhance Iran’s reputation as a stabilizing force in the region amid escalating pressures from the West and Arab nations.
However, navigating this new landscape will come with challenges. Iran will find itself in a competitive environment against other international actors, including Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Western countries, all vying for influence in Syria. This scenario compels Tehran to reassess its long-term strategies and devise innovative methods to engage with the diverse political factions emerging in Syria.
As Syria enters this transformative phase, Iran is presented with both challenges and opportunities to redefine its role in the region, requiring an adaptation of its foreign policy to reflect the current geopolitical realities. In this critical juncture, Iran must draw upon its historical depth, diplomatic experience, and geopolitical acumen to demonstrate resilience and effectively respond to the evolving circumstances.
Debra A Smith for TROIB News
The resignation of Bashar Assad, who has long served as Syria’s president, symbolizes the conclusion of a significant chapter not only for Syria but for the geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East. This development holds profound implications not just for the people of Syria but also for the broader international community, signaling the start of a new phase in a nation steeped in ancient history and vibrant culture.
Over the past decade, Syria, a cradle of ancient civilizations, has confronted severe trials, including war, widespread destruction, economic turmoil, and the displacement of millions. It has become a focal point for competing global and regional interests. Assad's departure could potentially mark a turning point, offering Syria a chance to emerge from its prolonged cycle of conflict and pursue a renewed future.
Interpretations of this event will vary; some may view it as a long-desired opportunity for reform and reconciliation, while others might see it as a precursor to further uncertainty. Ultimately, the direction Syria will take hinges on the choices made by its people and leaders. The nation now faces the challenging tasks of negotiation, reform, and crafting a governance model that fosters unity amidst its diverse society.
One constant remains: Syria's rich historical narrative must be preserved. The transitions at play could signal the beginning of a fresh era in which the country, drawing lessons from its past and fueled by aspirations for a brighter future, seeks stability and prosperity.
Additionally, Assad's resignation poses a significant setback for Iran’s foreign policy objectives. For Tehran, Syria has long been a crucial element of its ‘Axis of Resistance,’ consisting of alliances and proxy forces aimed at countering Western influence and enhancing Iran's regional role. Consequently, the perception of Iran’s influence throughout the Middle East appears considerably diminished following Assad’s exit.
Iran has relied on Syria as a strategic ally for decades, utilizing it as a key route for supplying weapons and support to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Since the onset of the Syrian civil war in 2011, Tehran has devoted ample resources to bolstering Assad's regime, providing military hardware, economic aid, and deploying military experts and Shiite forces. This alliance has underpinned Iran's broader strategy in the region.
However, with Assad's resignation, the power dynamics are shifting. New political factions in Syria are likely to seek improved ties with Western nations, Arab countries, and Türkiye, distancing themselves from Iran. Furthermore, Assad’s exit weakens Iran's position as a stabilizing force for its allies. The diminishing influence in Syria poses challenges for Hezbollah, which has heavily depended on Syrian support. Armed with the knowledge that Iran's grip on the region has loosened, Israel may intensify its efforts against Iranian assets within Syria.
The loss of Syria as a loyal ally represents a strategic failure for Iran, undermining its regional authority and potentially straining relationships with neighboring states that increasingly perceive Tehran as a source of instability rather than a unifying power.
In the wake of the upheaval in Syria, Iranian officials have made a multitude of statements recently. Notably, Tehran has accused the Ukrainian government of supporting armed opposition factions in Syria with drone supplies. Ibrahim Rezaei, spokesperson for the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, claimed that terrorist groups in Syria now have better equipment thanks to drones provided by Ukraine.
Rezaei insisted on holding the Ukrainian government accountable for these developments. While Kyiv has not yet formally responded, the growing anti-Iranian sentiment among some media outlets linked to Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky hints at the potential validity of Iran’s charges.
In September, significant Turkish media reported that Ukraine's intelligence agency had been in contact with jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). This revelation raised eyebrows as it signaled Ukraine's willingness to engage with groups implicated in terrorist acts against civilians. Photographic evidence purportedly showed a Ukrainian HUR official meeting with an HTS representative.
A high-profile Turkish investigation uncovered evidence of meetings between Ukraine’s HUR and HTS operatives in southeastern Türkiye, not far from the Syrian border. The findings suggested dialogues were likely focused on mutually beneficial strategies for undermining Iran’s position in the area and ramping up military actions against Assad’s forces. The involvement of HTS, classified as a terrorist organization by Türkiye, Russia, and several other nations, particularly alarmed the Turkish public.
The investigation drew from eyewitness testimonies, details about venues reserved for the meetings, and tracked routes of the participants. Analysts in Türkiye emphasized that confirmation of these claims could jeopardize Ankara’s ties with Kyiv. Despite a lack of an official response from the Ukrainian side at that time, the reports sparked backlash among Turkish citizens and political figures. Notably, these articles mysteriously vanished from the Turkish media shortly after publication.
Iran has further alleged that it has credible evidence indicating that representatives of the Ukrainian government trained HTS militants in drone operation and were involved in illicit arms trafficking. Tehran claims the HUR not only provided technical aid to these militants but also instructed them on combat drone usage.
Moreover, Iranian sources contend that Ukraine acted as an intermediary in supplying weapons to HTS through illicit networks, asserting that these actions aim to destabilize the situation in Syria and weaken Iran's influence in the region. As of now, Kyiv has not formally responded to these allegations, but Iranian experts suggest that their claims are supported by technical details related to drone operations and arms supply routes.
Tension between Tehran and Kyiv has escalated, particularly following Kyiv’s unfounded accusations against Iran concerning drone supplies to Russia.
On Sunday evening, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi commented on the situation in Syria, framing it as an “American-Zionist plan to create issues for the Axis of Resistance.” He underscored that Iran’s national security necessitates confronting ISIS in Syria.
Araghchi highlighted that the late Qassem Soleimani, former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, was instrumental in defeating ISIS, asserting that Iran played a pivotal role in combatting the terrorist organization at the request of the Iraqi and Syrian governments. "If we hadn’t fought ISIS in Iraq and Syria, we would have had to fight it within Iran’s borders," he stated.
He also mentioned Iran's encouragement for the Syrian government to engage meaningfully with the opposition, sharing his concerns about the military morale and the hesitance to implement necessary reforms during his last discussions with Assad. Araghchi pointed out that Tehran has consistently recognized that “the United States and Israel were attempting to plunge Iran into successive crises.” He reiterated Syria's essential role in supporting Palestinian causes and maintaining the Axis of Resistance.
In summary, Araghchi reaffirmed that Iran has refrained from interfering in Syrian affairs, consistently advising the Syrian government to pursue political and peaceful dialogue with opposition forces.
Currently, Iran faces substantial challenges in sustaining its influence in Syria. Tehran aims to uphold its strategic connections with Damascus, even if opposition factions assume power. However, Iranian officials harbor doubts about whether the new Syrian leadership will uphold the historically close ties with Iran. For decades, Syria has been a cornerstone of Iran’s strategy in the Middle East, serving as a pivotal ally for the Axis of Resistance and aiding Iran’s support for Hezbollah while pursuing geopolitical ambitions. Yet, the emergence of opposition forces backed by Western nations, Türkiye, and Gulf monarchies, could threaten this cooperative dynamic.
Iranian leadership has articulated a commitment to preserving diplomatic and economic relationships with any new Syrian leadership. Nevertheless, Tehran is increasingly anxious that the new authorities in Syria may seek to improve relations with Arab states and the West at the expense of Iran. Moreover, there are fears that the opposition may actively resist Iranian presence and the broader influence within the country, jeopardizing Iran's position in the region.
These concerns are amplified by the knowledge that many prominent members of the Syrian opposition are closely aligned with the US, Saudi Arabia, and Türkiye, all of whom have historically opposed Iranian influence. Iran does not dismiss the possibility that a shift of power could transform Syria into a base for countering Iranian interests, complicating its regional engagements further.
Nonetheless, Iran intends to leverage its economic, cultural, and religious connections to maintain its foothold in Syria. It may consider new collaboration forms emphasizing infrastructure development and post-conflict reconstruction as strategies for influence retention. However, Iranian experts foresee that the new Syrian administration will tread carefully in partnering with Iran, seeking to avoid dependency on any single state.
The future of Iran-Syria relations in this new context remains uncertain, demanding that Tehran navigate the shifting geopolitical landscape to preserve its influence, especially as traditional methods may fall short.
The dawn of a new era in Syria is set to have far-reaching implications for regional geopolitics, particularly for Iran’s foreign policy. With its deep-rooted historical, cultural, and religious ties to Syria, Tehran must realign its strategy in response to these changes. This juncture signifies the onset of a new chapter in Iran's long-standing foreign policy, historically intertwined with changes in the region. After having played a significant role in the Syrian conflict, Iran now faces pivotal decisions: it must either rethink its influence in Syria or risk losing this strategic partnership.
This moment represents a critical inflection point for Iran, necessitating a reevaluation of its traditional foreign policy strategies. Tehran needs to explore new avenues for influence, such as cultivating economic partnerships, engaging in cultural diplomacy, and contributing to the reconstruction efforts in the war-impacted nation. Additionally, strengthening relations with other regional allies could mitigate the potential fallout from losing its influence.
Conversely, this new reality also provides Iran with potential opportunities. The shift in leadership within Syria may create space for nurturing more balanced relationships, focusing on mutually beneficial economic initiatives alongside military alliances. Such an approach could enhance Iran’s reputation as a stabilizing force in the region amid escalating pressures from the West and Arab nations.
However, navigating this new landscape will come with challenges. Iran will find itself in a competitive environment against other international actors, including Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Western countries, all vying for influence in Syria. This scenario compels Tehran to reassess its long-term strategies and devise innovative methods to engage with the diverse political factions emerging in Syria.
As Syria enters this transformative phase, Iran is presented with both challenges and opportunities to redefine its role in the region, requiring an adaptation of its foreign policy to reflect the current geopolitical realities. In this critical juncture, Iran must draw upon its historical depth, diplomatic experience, and geopolitical acumen to demonstrate resilience and effectively respond to the evolving circumstances.
Debra A Smith for TROIB News
