The Economy Could Be Disrupted by Trump’s Mass Deportations
Trump has pledged that mass deportation will be a top priority on his first day in office, asserting that he has “no choice” but to remove anyone residing in the U.S. without legal status.
TroibNews 
Donald Trump’s ascent to the presidency was characterized by his commitments to reduce inflation and expel millions of immigrants from the U.S. However, as he prepares to take office, he will need to reconcile these promises with an economy that increasingly relies on immigrant labor to maintain low prices and ongoing productivity.
Various sectors, including construction, healthcare, and agriculture, are heavily dependent on immigrant workers, who make up between a quarter and half of certain key job categories. This reliance is backed by government statistics showing that immigration during the Biden administration — totaling as many as 3.3 million in 2023, including those entering illegally — has bolstered economic output and provided much-needed labor as the native population ages.
As he is inaugurated as the 47th president, Trump's most significant hurdle may lie in addressing one of the country's most pressing issues — the border — which could inadvertently exacerbate another problem: rising consumer prices. This concern is echoed by some of Trump’s allies.
Former advisor Stephen Moore, now a senior visiting fellow in economics at the Heritage Foundation, stated, “The two reasons that Trump won the election” were voter anger over both immigration and inflation. He cautioned, “There is no question that having eight to 10 million people deported — many of whom are working — would put a strain on the economy.” He added, “You could see an inflationary impact to getting rid of some of these workers — for sure.”
Trump has pledged that mass deportation will be a priority from day one, asserting that while he will initially focus on those with criminal records, he has “no choice” but to deport anyone who is in the U.S. illegally.
Economists are warning that the costs could be staggering. They predict that food prices would rise as agricultural production slows, housing construction costs would increase, and staffing shortages at nursing homes and home health agencies would escalate, resulting in higher healthcare expenses. The outcome largely hinges on how many workers are deported and whether outmigration increases while the influx of new working-age migrants decreases.
Despite a recent easing of inflation, prices remain over 20 percent higher than when President Joe Biden took office. Unauthorized immigrants constitute a significant portion of the labor force, with Pew Research Center demographers estimating around 8.3 million undocumented workers in the U.S., making up about 5 percent of the total workforce. They comprise more than 10 percent of the labor pool in construction and agriculture and nearly 7 percent of all home health aides.
Some of Trump’s supporters assert that the concerns regarding potential mass deportation are exaggerated. Karoline Leavitt, a spokesperson for Trump’s transition team, argued that the "real economic crisis is the $182 billion American tax dollars spent each year to cover the costs of 20 million illegal immigrants that have flooded our communities and replaced American workers."
Steven Camarota, director of research for the Center for Immigration Studies — known for its anti-immigration stance and cited by Trump’s homeland security advisor — pointed out that the capacity to deport millions is not currently in place. He also noted that raising wages for lower-income jobs could enhance participation rates among younger men, which are lower than historical norms. “They crowd out the native-born,” he remarked, adding that it fuels a reliance on eager immigrant labor at the expense of underemployed local workers.
Chad Wolf, former acting Secretary of Homeland Security and a leader at the America First Policy Institute, highlighted that the U.S. has rarely deported over 400,000 individuals in a single year. Trump indicated to NBC’s "Meet the Press" that initial deportations would target unauthorized immigrants with criminal records, which number around 425,000, and that further actions would depend on how the situation unfolds.
“If there's 16 workplace raids in agriculture over the course of two months, then yeah, let's start talking about how [the economic impact] may be a concern,” Wolf said, cautioning against overreaction.
Nevertheless, economists and industry groups warn that the U.S. faces a worker shortage that could hinder efforts to replace the immigrant labor force. A significant economic shock resulting from mass deportations could impede growth and employment while fueling inflation.
“The number of employed workers in America would be rapidly shrinking today without immigration," said George Mason University economics professor Michael Clemens. He emphasized that “all of our jobs depend on the growing economy, and the growing economy can only exist due to immigration.”
The housing sector, which both Trump and Democratic leaders recognize as vital for growth, faces pressures as rents and home prices soar. Trump’s nominee for the Department of Housing and Urban Development, Scott Turner, stated that America needs to build “millions of new homes” to address the affordability crisis.
To realize these ambitions, a robust workforce is essential. Jim Tobin, CEO of the National Association of Home Builders, expressed concern about Trump’s immigration policies, warning that targeting working immigrants could exacerbate the labor market troubles in construction. “Until we train enough domestic workers... we're going to need to go across our borders for immigration,” he said, advocating for more legal pathways for construction workers.
Clemens pointed to research showing that crackdowns on illegal immigration, like the Secure Communities program, can significantly reduce labor supply, slower home construction, and negatively affect local labor markets by limiting demand for U.S.-born laborers.
“Unauthorized workers in America are not just selling labor and competing with other sellers of labor. They are critical ingredients in production, and the removal of those ingredients reduces production,” Clemens explained, noting that this has “ripple effects for the jobs of everybody else in the sector — including authorized immigrants, including natives.”
These ripple effects are likely to manifest at the grocery store, particularly as unauthorized immigrants represent approximately 40 percent of all crop farmworkers, with even higher percentages in some dairy farm sectors. As J.H. Cullum Clark from the George W. Bush Institute-SMU Economic Growth Initiative pointed out, disruptions in farm production “almost necessarily translates into what one sees at the grocery store.”
With more Americans aging out of the workforce, nursing homes and home care services are also bracing for potential workforce impacts. According to the American Immigration Council, immigrants account for 27 percent of all health aides, and as the population ages, demand for these services is expected to grow. AIC’s Nancy Wu cautioned, “Having some reduction in the supply of labor of skilled workers in that sector will definitely limit the opportunities for patients to get proper care.”
Frederick R Cook contributed to this report for TROIB News
Various sectors, including construction, healthcare, and agriculture, are heavily dependent on immigrant workers, who make up between a quarter and half of certain key job categories. This reliance is backed by government statistics showing that immigration during the Biden administration — totaling as many as 3.3 million in 2023, including those entering illegally — has bolstered economic output and provided much-needed labor as the native population ages.
As he is inaugurated as the 47th president, Trump's most significant hurdle may lie in addressing one of the country's most pressing issues — the border — which could inadvertently exacerbate another problem: rising consumer prices. This concern is echoed by some of Trump’s allies.
Former advisor Stephen Moore, now a senior visiting fellow in economics at the Heritage Foundation, stated, “The two reasons that Trump won the election” were voter anger over both immigration and inflation. He cautioned, “There is no question that having eight to 10 million people deported — many of whom are working — would put a strain on the economy.” He added, “You could see an inflationary impact to getting rid of some of these workers — for sure.”
Trump has pledged that mass deportation will be a priority from day one, asserting that while he will initially focus on those with criminal records, he has “no choice” but to deport anyone who is in the U.S. illegally.
Economists are warning that the costs could be staggering. They predict that food prices would rise as agricultural production slows, housing construction costs would increase, and staffing shortages at nursing homes and home health agencies would escalate, resulting in higher healthcare expenses. The outcome largely hinges on how many workers are deported and whether outmigration increases while the influx of new working-age migrants decreases.
Despite a recent easing of inflation, prices remain over 20 percent higher than when President Joe Biden took office. Unauthorized immigrants constitute a significant portion of the labor force, with Pew Research Center demographers estimating around 8.3 million undocumented workers in the U.S., making up about 5 percent of the total workforce. They comprise more than 10 percent of the labor pool in construction and agriculture and nearly 7 percent of all home health aides.
Some of Trump’s supporters assert that the concerns regarding potential mass deportation are exaggerated. Karoline Leavitt, a spokesperson for Trump’s transition team, argued that the "real economic crisis is the $182 billion American tax dollars spent each year to cover the costs of 20 million illegal immigrants that have flooded our communities and replaced American workers."
Steven Camarota, director of research for the Center for Immigration Studies — known for its anti-immigration stance and cited by Trump’s homeland security advisor — pointed out that the capacity to deport millions is not currently in place. He also noted that raising wages for lower-income jobs could enhance participation rates among younger men, which are lower than historical norms. “They crowd out the native-born,” he remarked, adding that it fuels a reliance on eager immigrant labor at the expense of underemployed local workers.
Chad Wolf, former acting Secretary of Homeland Security and a leader at the America First Policy Institute, highlighted that the U.S. has rarely deported over 400,000 individuals in a single year. Trump indicated to NBC’s "Meet the Press" that initial deportations would target unauthorized immigrants with criminal records, which number around 425,000, and that further actions would depend on how the situation unfolds.
“If there's 16 workplace raids in agriculture over the course of two months, then yeah, let's start talking about how [the economic impact] may be a concern,” Wolf said, cautioning against overreaction.
Nevertheless, economists and industry groups warn that the U.S. faces a worker shortage that could hinder efforts to replace the immigrant labor force. A significant economic shock resulting from mass deportations could impede growth and employment while fueling inflation.
“The number of employed workers in America would be rapidly shrinking today without immigration," said George Mason University economics professor Michael Clemens. He emphasized that “all of our jobs depend on the growing economy, and the growing economy can only exist due to immigration.”
The housing sector, which both Trump and Democratic leaders recognize as vital for growth, faces pressures as rents and home prices soar. Trump’s nominee for the Department of Housing and Urban Development, Scott Turner, stated that America needs to build “millions of new homes” to address the affordability crisis.
To realize these ambitions, a robust workforce is essential. Jim Tobin, CEO of the National Association of Home Builders, expressed concern about Trump’s immigration policies, warning that targeting working immigrants could exacerbate the labor market troubles in construction. “Until we train enough domestic workers... we're going to need to go across our borders for immigration,” he said, advocating for more legal pathways for construction workers.
Clemens pointed to research showing that crackdowns on illegal immigration, like the Secure Communities program, can significantly reduce labor supply, slower home construction, and negatively affect local labor markets by limiting demand for U.S.-born laborers.
“Unauthorized workers in America are not just selling labor and competing with other sellers of labor. They are critical ingredients in production, and the removal of those ingredients reduces production,” Clemens explained, noting that this has “ripple effects for the jobs of everybody else in the sector — including authorized immigrants, including natives.”
These ripple effects are likely to manifest at the grocery store, particularly as unauthorized immigrants represent approximately 40 percent of all crop farmworkers, with even higher percentages in some dairy farm sectors. As J.H. Cullum Clark from the George W. Bush Institute-SMU Economic Growth Initiative pointed out, disruptions in farm production “almost necessarily translates into what one sees at the grocery store.”
With more Americans aging out of the workforce, nursing homes and home care services are also bracing for potential workforce impacts. According to the American Immigration Council, immigrants account for 27 percent of all health aides, and as the population ages, demand for these services is expected to grow. AIC’s Nancy Wu cautioned, “Having some reduction in the supply of labor of skilled workers in that sector will definitely limit the opportunities for patients to get proper care.”
Frederick R Cook contributed to this report for TROIB News
