The 14 Locations That Decipher Trump’s Win
The map clearly illustrates the structural framework of Trump's victory.
TroibNews 
In Pennsylvania, the anxious discussions and finger-pointing began almost immediately after the critical 2024 battleground state was declared for Donald Trump.
What led to the dismal performance for Kamala Harris in Philadelphia, a Democratic stronghold? How could Trump regain pivotal counties that had previously flipped to the Democratic Party with Joe Biden? And what transpired in rural Pennsylvania, where despite efforts by the Harris campaign to make a presence, she lost 30 of the state’s 67 counties by margins exceeding 40 points?
This pattern unfolded across the electoral landscape, affecting both swing states and those deemed non-competitive. The Democratic coalition that had secured a decisive victory for Biden just a few years prior appeared to unravel, leaving the party bewildered and the GOP revitalized.
Although not all votes are finalized, the framework of Trump’s victory is evident. He successfully garnered even more support from rural America, including an increase in rural Black voters. Additionally, he made notable strides with Latino voters across various regions, from the Southwest to the Acela Corridor. In large, diverse urban areas—such as Houston’s Harris County and Chicago’s Cook County—Trump diminished the traditionally significant Democratic leads. Many populous suburbs that had overwhelmingly rejected him in 2020 lost that anti-Trump sentiment. Even the largest college counties seemed to lack the urgency and indignation that characterized their responses in 2020.
Consequently, the Blue Wall disintegrated, and the Sun Belt disappeared for Democrats. Trump is currently positioned to sweep the seven swing states and triumph in the popular vote.
Here are the key regions that illustrate the dynamics at play.
**Southeast Michigan**
In 2020, vote-rich metro Detroit sealed Trump’s fate in Michigan. However, the landscape changed this year. Four years ago, Trump faced a devastating loss in Wayne County and suburban Oakland County, particularly as voter turnout surged to 75 percent in Oakland. This time, turnout dipped slightly, and Harris garnered 112,000 fewer votes than Biden from these populous counties.
Oakland was a strong area for Nikki Haley during the Republican primary, where she captured one-third of the vote against Trump. Despite hosting one of the three Harris-Liz Cheney town halls there, Trump improved his performance from 2020.
Wayne County, with its significant Democratic base, saw an even sharper decline in support, fueled by grievances within the Muslim and Arab American communities regarding the Biden administration's ongoing support for Israel’s military actions. Trump, despite his controversial past regarding Muslim immigration, attracted local Arab and Muslim leaders, leading to a 9-point shift toward the GOP. His results were bolstered by increased support in communities like Dearborn, Dearborn Heights, and Hamtramck, which have large populations of Middle Eastern descent.
**Northern Virginia**
Joe Biden achieved considerable gains in 2020 over Hillary Clinton’s performance in Northern Virginia. This year, however, the region, home to more than a third of the state’s population, shifted rightward. Harris's numbers fell by 5 points in Loudoun and Prince William counties and by 4 points in Fairfax County. The outcomes in these regions made Virginia more competitive than in 2020, which is why it was called for Biden soon after polls closed, while it took longer for Harris to secure the state.
**South Texas**
Trump’s surprising strength in the predominantly Latino Rio Grande Valley was one of the defining features of the 2020 election. This year, he extended his reach, flipping numerous counties along the border, including the historically Democratic Starr County, which is 97 percent Hispanic and hadn't supported a Republican presidential candidate in over a century. Just eight years ago, Trump lost Starr to Hillary Clinton by a staggering 79-19 percent margin.
**Philadelphia and its suburbs**
Ahead of the election, former Rep. Bob Brady, Democratic Party chief in Philadelphia, emphasized the benchmarks for success. If Harris secured over a 500,000 vote margin in Philly, it would spell victory; but a margin closer to 450,000 would signal a tight race. Ultimately, Harris's margin fell short at just 412,000, significantly lower than Biden's 2020 margin of 471,000. Many factors contributed to this decline, but one significant reason stood out: Trump’s share of the vote in the 114 majority-Latino precincts in Philadelphia rose from 6.1 percent in 2016 to 21.8 percent in 2024.
The disappointing numbers from Philadelphia were exacerbated by a drop-off in support from surrounding collar counties—Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery—which all shifted toward Trump by at least three points, with Bucks flipping for the first time since 1988.
**Central Florida**
Trump's decisive victory in Florida was marked by impressive gains in metro areas. Notably, Orange and Osceola counties, home to substantial Puerto Rican populations, moved rightward this year, with Osceola flipping to Trump after a 15-point swing from 2020. This shift capped off a remarkable transformation: Osceola had given Hillary Clinton a commanding win in 2016.
**Miami-Dade County**
Florida witnessed several key urban areas revert to Trump on Election Night. Jacksonville’s Duval County and St. Petersburg’s Pinellas County both flipped back to the GOP, and Tampa’s Hillsborough County also swung hard to the right after voting for Biden previously. The most significant narrative emerged from Miami-Dade County. Historically, Democrats needed strong support in Miami-Dade to offset losses elsewhere; Biden struggled to achieve this in 2020, leading to a loss in the state. While he managed to win Miami-Dade, it was by a reduced margin. This year, Harris lost decisively, with Trump winning by 11 points, marking the largest shift in any of the state’s 67 counties.
**Southern Minnesota**
Tim Walz's former House district in southern Minnesota features numerous Pivot Counties, which voted twice for Barack Obama before flipping to Trump in 2016. These counties typically have a whiter, less affluent, and smaller population compared to the national average, leaning more rural. Biden managed to regain ground in three of these counties—Blue Earth, Nicollet, and Winona—but even his presence on the ticket wasn't enough to sway voters back, as Trump dominated in Greater Minnesota, outside of the pro-Democratic Twin Cities.
**McKinley County, New Mexico**
Trump's subtle efforts to court Native American voters appeared to have paid off, showing significant gains in traditionally Democratic, predominantly Native American counties. Notably, New Mexico’s McKinley County, which is 81 percent Native American, shifted 14 points toward Trump, even though Harris secured a comfortable victory. That shift occurred amidst the Harris campaign's concerted efforts to reach out, including appearances by Walz and an apology from Biden regarding the treatment of Native American children in historical boarding schools.
**Northeastern Pennsylvania**
Another focal point for Harris was how she would perform in the Republican-leaning areas of Biden’s birthplace. Heavily Catholic and older, Lackawanna County and neighboring Luzerne County posed challenges. While Harris narrowly held on to Lackawanna, she did so with diminished margins. Luzerne continued its trend toward the GOP, with Trump achieving his highest percentage there at 60 percent.
**Bristol County, Massachusetts**
In presidential races, Massachusetts provides reliably blue territory, yet Bristol County near the Rhode Island border showed a very close contest, with Harris leading by less than a percentage point—tremendously different from Biden’s victory of 55-42 four years earlier. Bristol County has not voted Republican in decades. Key to Trump’s improved performance there were New Bedford and Fall River, with Trump seeing a notable increase in support.
**Johnson County, Iowa**
Large margins from liberal college counties were crucial to Biden's 2020 success. However, similar levels of outrage toward Trump didn't manifest in the 2024 results. Although Harris carried these areas, the margins were typically below 2020 levels, with Johnson County seeing a 5-point shift toward Republicans. Similar trends occurred in other college areas across Iowa and several battleground states.
**Eastern North Carolina**
While attention was focused on urban counties like Charlotte’s Mecklenburg and Raleigh’s Wake, rural areas in eastern North Carolina also played a vital role in Trump’s dominance. He made significant strides with Black voters in this region, flipping Nash County and nearly flipping Wilson County. Though his gains weren’t enough to overturn Harris in those counties, they underscored the Democratic ticket’s vulnerabilities with both white and Black rural voters.
**Milwaukee and its suburbs**
In Wisconsin, Trump faced challenges in the traditionally Republican WOW counties surrounding Milwaukee in previous elections. Yet, this year he managed to stabilize his numbers and gain slight ground elsewhere in the state. With Dane and Milwaukee counties reflecting similar performance to 2020, these results were instrumental in allowing Trump to pull off a narrow victory in a state decided by a razor-thin margin.
**Lehigh Valley**
In the Lehigh Valley, Northampton County continued its consistent alignment with the presidential victor, flipping back to Trump after bouncing between Obama and Biden in elections past. Neighboring Lehigh County also moved in Trump’s direction, particularly due to enhanced support from Latino voters in the region. Despite efforts to reach the Puerto Rican community through campaigning, the election results suggest that Trump's controversial remarks had minimal impact on voter behavior.
Overall, these observations reveal a multifaceted electoral landscape shaped by shifting demographics and changing sentiments, offering a significant analysis of the political dynamics at play in the recent election.
Lucas Dupont contributed to this report for TROIB News
What led to the dismal performance for Kamala Harris in Philadelphia, a Democratic stronghold? How could Trump regain pivotal counties that had previously flipped to the Democratic Party with Joe Biden? And what transpired in rural Pennsylvania, where despite efforts by the Harris campaign to make a presence, she lost 30 of the state’s 67 counties by margins exceeding 40 points?
This pattern unfolded across the electoral landscape, affecting both swing states and those deemed non-competitive. The Democratic coalition that had secured a decisive victory for Biden just a few years prior appeared to unravel, leaving the party bewildered and the GOP revitalized.
Although not all votes are finalized, the framework of Trump’s victory is evident. He successfully garnered even more support from rural America, including an increase in rural Black voters. Additionally, he made notable strides with Latino voters across various regions, from the Southwest to the Acela Corridor. In large, diverse urban areas—such as Houston’s Harris County and Chicago’s Cook County—Trump diminished the traditionally significant Democratic leads. Many populous suburbs that had overwhelmingly rejected him in 2020 lost that anti-Trump sentiment. Even the largest college counties seemed to lack the urgency and indignation that characterized their responses in 2020.
Consequently, the Blue Wall disintegrated, and the Sun Belt disappeared for Democrats. Trump is currently positioned to sweep the seven swing states and triumph in the popular vote.
Here are the key regions that illustrate the dynamics at play.
**Southeast Michigan**
In 2020, vote-rich metro Detroit sealed Trump’s fate in Michigan. However, the landscape changed this year. Four years ago, Trump faced a devastating loss in Wayne County and suburban Oakland County, particularly as voter turnout surged to 75 percent in Oakland. This time, turnout dipped slightly, and Harris garnered 112,000 fewer votes than Biden from these populous counties.
Oakland was a strong area for Nikki Haley during the Republican primary, where she captured one-third of the vote against Trump. Despite hosting one of the three Harris-Liz Cheney town halls there, Trump improved his performance from 2020.
Wayne County, with its significant Democratic base, saw an even sharper decline in support, fueled by grievances within the Muslim and Arab American communities regarding the Biden administration's ongoing support for Israel’s military actions. Trump, despite his controversial past regarding Muslim immigration, attracted local Arab and Muslim leaders, leading to a 9-point shift toward the GOP. His results were bolstered by increased support in communities like Dearborn, Dearborn Heights, and Hamtramck, which have large populations of Middle Eastern descent.
**Northern Virginia**
Joe Biden achieved considerable gains in 2020 over Hillary Clinton’s performance in Northern Virginia. This year, however, the region, home to more than a third of the state’s population, shifted rightward. Harris's numbers fell by 5 points in Loudoun and Prince William counties and by 4 points in Fairfax County. The outcomes in these regions made Virginia more competitive than in 2020, which is why it was called for Biden soon after polls closed, while it took longer for Harris to secure the state.
**South Texas**
Trump’s surprising strength in the predominantly Latino Rio Grande Valley was one of the defining features of the 2020 election. This year, he extended his reach, flipping numerous counties along the border, including the historically Democratic Starr County, which is 97 percent Hispanic and hadn't supported a Republican presidential candidate in over a century. Just eight years ago, Trump lost Starr to Hillary Clinton by a staggering 79-19 percent margin.
**Philadelphia and its suburbs**
Ahead of the election, former Rep. Bob Brady, Democratic Party chief in Philadelphia, emphasized the benchmarks for success. If Harris secured over a 500,000 vote margin in Philly, it would spell victory; but a margin closer to 450,000 would signal a tight race. Ultimately, Harris's margin fell short at just 412,000, significantly lower than Biden's 2020 margin of 471,000. Many factors contributed to this decline, but one significant reason stood out: Trump’s share of the vote in the 114 majority-Latino precincts in Philadelphia rose from 6.1 percent in 2016 to 21.8 percent in 2024.
The disappointing numbers from Philadelphia were exacerbated by a drop-off in support from surrounding collar counties—Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery—which all shifted toward Trump by at least three points, with Bucks flipping for the first time since 1988.
**Central Florida**
Trump's decisive victory in Florida was marked by impressive gains in metro areas. Notably, Orange and Osceola counties, home to substantial Puerto Rican populations, moved rightward this year, with Osceola flipping to Trump after a 15-point swing from 2020. This shift capped off a remarkable transformation: Osceola had given Hillary Clinton a commanding win in 2016.
**Miami-Dade County**
Florida witnessed several key urban areas revert to Trump on Election Night. Jacksonville’s Duval County and St. Petersburg’s Pinellas County both flipped back to the GOP, and Tampa’s Hillsborough County also swung hard to the right after voting for Biden previously. The most significant narrative emerged from Miami-Dade County. Historically, Democrats needed strong support in Miami-Dade to offset losses elsewhere; Biden struggled to achieve this in 2020, leading to a loss in the state. While he managed to win Miami-Dade, it was by a reduced margin. This year, Harris lost decisively, with Trump winning by 11 points, marking the largest shift in any of the state’s 67 counties.
**Southern Minnesota**
Tim Walz's former House district in southern Minnesota features numerous Pivot Counties, which voted twice for Barack Obama before flipping to Trump in 2016. These counties typically have a whiter, less affluent, and smaller population compared to the national average, leaning more rural. Biden managed to regain ground in three of these counties—Blue Earth, Nicollet, and Winona—but even his presence on the ticket wasn't enough to sway voters back, as Trump dominated in Greater Minnesota, outside of the pro-Democratic Twin Cities.
**McKinley County, New Mexico**
Trump's subtle efforts to court Native American voters appeared to have paid off, showing significant gains in traditionally Democratic, predominantly Native American counties. Notably, New Mexico’s McKinley County, which is 81 percent Native American, shifted 14 points toward Trump, even though Harris secured a comfortable victory. That shift occurred amidst the Harris campaign's concerted efforts to reach out, including appearances by Walz and an apology from Biden regarding the treatment of Native American children in historical boarding schools.
**Northeastern Pennsylvania**
Another focal point for Harris was how she would perform in the Republican-leaning areas of Biden’s birthplace. Heavily Catholic and older, Lackawanna County and neighboring Luzerne County posed challenges. While Harris narrowly held on to Lackawanna, she did so with diminished margins. Luzerne continued its trend toward the GOP, with Trump achieving his highest percentage there at 60 percent.
**Bristol County, Massachusetts**
In presidential races, Massachusetts provides reliably blue territory, yet Bristol County near the Rhode Island border showed a very close contest, with Harris leading by less than a percentage point—tremendously different from Biden’s victory of 55-42 four years earlier. Bristol County has not voted Republican in decades. Key to Trump’s improved performance there were New Bedford and Fall River, with Trump seeing a notable increase in support.
**Johnson County, Iowa**
Large margins from liberal college counties were crucial to Biden's 2020 success. However, similar levels of outrage toward Trump didn't manifest in the 2024 results. Although Harris carried these areas, the margins were typically below 2020 levels, with Johnson County seeing a 5-point shift toward Republicans. Similar trends occurred in other college areas across Iowa and several battleground states.
**Eastern North Carolina**
While attention was focused on urban counties like Charlotte’s Mecklenburg and Raleigh’s Wake, rural areas in eastern North Carolina also played a vital role in Trump’s dominance. He made significant strides with Black voters in this region, flipping Nash County and nearly flipping Wilson County. Though his gains weren’t enough to overturn Harris in those counties, they underscored the Democratic ticket’s vulnerabilities with both white and Black rural voters.
**Milwaukee and its suburbs**
In Wisconsin, Trump faced challenges in the traditionally Republican WOW counties surrounding Milwaukee in previous elections. Yet, this year he managed to stabilize his numbers and gain slight ground elsewhere in the state. With Dane and Milwaukee counties reflecting similar performance to 2020, these results were instrumental in allowing Trump to pull off a narrow victory in a state decided by a razor-thin margin.
**Lehigh Valley**
In the Lehigh Valley, Northampton County continued its consistent alignment with the presidential victor, flipping back to Trump after bouncing between Obama and Biden in elections past. Neighboring Lehigh County also moved in Trump’s direction, particularly due to enhanced support from Latino voters in the region. Despite efforts to reach the Puerto Rican community through campaigning, the election results suggest that Trump's controversial remarks had minimal impact on voter behavior.
Overall, these observations reveal a multifaceted electoral landscape shaped by shifting demographics and changing sentiments, offering a significant analysis of the political dynamics at play in the recent election.
Lucas Dupont contributed to this report for TROIB News
