Confronting a Trump-influenced House battleground, Dems must 'quit talking to ourselves and start listening to people'

Democrats require a net gain of three seats to regain control of the House, but it appears they will need to target districts that were previously won by Trump.

Confronting a Trump-influenced House battleground, Dems must 'quit talking to ourselves and start listening to people'
Democrats are just three seats away from regaining control of the House next year, but they face a significant hurdle: their path largely traverses districts that Donald Trump captured in November.

Currently, thirteen House Democrats occupy seats that Trump won, while only three GOP incumbents serve in districts that supported former Vice President Kamala Harris. This stands in stark contrast to the first time Trump was elected, when 23 Republicans held seats that Hillary Clinton won, alongside 12 Democrats who represented Trump districts.

After years of leveraging anti-Trump sentiment and enthusiasm from their base, Democrats assert that expanding their coalition and revitalizing their inclusive approach is crucial — a key element being the need to win back as many Trump voters as possible.

Democrats who successfully navigated last year's elections in heavily pro-Trump districts believe the party should take notes from their victories. In conversations, several highlighted that a core component of succeeding in Trump territories involved campaigning with a form of authenticity that helped them carve out their own identity. They emphasized the necessity of overcoming stereotypes surrounding the Democratic Party and ensuring constituents felt their concerns were acknowledged.

“At the top of the ticket, there was a lot of attention spent on talking only to Democrats,” said Rep. Susie Lee, who won reelection in her Las Vegas-area district by just under three percentage points despite Trump's narrow victory there. “And I say, quit talking to ourselves and start listening to people.”

The implications of these dynamics are significant. The shrinking number of crossover districts illustrates a heightened polarization and the diminishing occurrence of split-ticket voting. The current crossover districts present a new landscape: while they still include predominantly white exurban and rural areas, they also encompass more diverse communities that experienced some of the largest swings in voting behavior during the last presidential race.

The ability of candidates to replicate the achievements of battleground Democrats might influence not just the balance of power in the House during the latter half of Trump's term, but also the future trajectory of a party in the midst of an identity crisis.

Public opinion surrounding immigration has changed, prompting adjustments in Democrats’ strategies and messaging. In the new Congress, numerous Democrats — particularly those from Trump-won districts — have shifted to the right, aligning with Republicans to support legislation mandating the detention of more undocumented immigrants charged with crimes.

Some Republicans have attempted to “demonize and vilify immigrants as if they’re all criminals,” stated Rep. Adam Gray, who narrowly flipped a Central Valley seat by fewer than 200 votes in November. Conversely, he noted that certain Democrats appear to “want to run away from having a secure border or having a focus on safe communities.”

Gray highlighted that voters in his majority-Hispanic district seek a balanced approach.

Initially, Democrats believed Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric would hinder him and the GOP among Latino and immigrant voters. Nevertheless, Republicans leveraged immigration to criticize President Joe Biden, Harris, and other Democrats last year, leading to significant gains in Latino- and immigrant-heavy areas that shifted rightward during the election. Trump secured more than a 5-point margin in Gray’s district, representing a substantial swing from 2020.

Throughout Trump's first term, Democrats primarily opposed his stringent immigration policies. Many House members are now attempting to balance a pushback while remaining supportive of border security.

This issue has emerged as an opportunity for members in battleground districts to distinguish themselves from party leadership and activist organizations.

“The right metric of authenticity is, are you willing to stand up for something, even if the politics of your own political party or your base is different than what you need to do to take care of your voters?” Gray said.

Inflation and high prices have also created significant voter frustration that negatively impacted Democrats in 2024, with Republicans asserting that Harris and Biden did not adequately address the struggles faced by working individuals.

Candidates who succeeded against this backdrop found ways to demonstrate their attentiveness to economic challenges.

“I’ve got a 15-year-old son, and you cannot fill a 15-year-old boy up. I use two gallons of milk a week. The kid is constantly hungry, so I pay attention to the price of groceries, right?” Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet stated, highlighting her Central Michigan district, which she won by nearly seven points despite it narrowly backing Trump.

Acknowledging economic hardships can be difficult for the ruling party, as voters often hold them accountable. However, the situation could be less complicated for Democrats in 2026, with Trump potentially back in the White House and Republicans controlling Congress. Still, Democrats in Trump-won districts affirm the necessity of establishing credibility on economic topics.

McDonald Rivet shared that she resonated with constituents’ concerns about job opportunities driving their children away, which in turn affects their ability to see their grandchildren—a sentiment she also feels.

“These are the same things that people across the district are worrying about,” McDonald Rivet noted. During her campaign, she said, “I talked about that. In fact, I talked almost exclusively about that.”

The challenges facing battleground Democrats are seen as a blend of policy and messaging issues.

“It’s a matter of being able to speak the same language that our voters are speaking,” explained first-term Rep. Nellie Pou, whose North Jersey district swung nearly 20 points toward Trump in the last election.

Pou, who conducted a shortened campaign after Rep. Bill Pascrell, a longtime Democratic representative, passed away in August, remarked that her Democratic colleagues sometimes tended to use overly academic terminology that does not resonate with voters. She emphasized the importance of reaching out to Latino voters.

“They're concerned about their household needs. They're concerned about the economy, inflation, education,” Pou stated. “We just need to make sure that we're reaching out to them, and also not taking Latinos for granted.”

Engaging with voters will also necessitate navigating nuanced perspectives on issues such as abortion rights, which have generally served as a substantial electoral strength for Democrats since the overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022.

However, some Democrats in battleground regions warn that their constituents do not uniformly support abortion rights, particularly among Latinos who might hold Catholic and socially conservative beliefs.

Lee recounted a conversation with a voter who felt disillusioned by the Democratic stance on abortion, perceiving the party as overly supportive of the practice.

She recounted explaining her personal experiences as a Catholic woman who has undergone multiple miscarriages, making the argument for allowing women to decide based on their unique circumstances. This approach resonated more deeply with the voter than a general pro-abortion rights stance.

“We need to listen more and then understand where people are comfortable and uncomfortable, and be able to talk to that,” Lee asserted. “And we're not going to have all the answers, but if they understand that, we understand their angst, that's important.”

Rohan Mehta for TROIB News