Andy Kim internal poll shows big lead over Tammy Murphy in New Jersey Senate race

An internal poll from Democratic Rep. Andy Kim’s Senate campaign shows him leading New Jersey first lady Tammy Murphy by a 23-point margin.

The poll of 1,004 likely Democratic primary voters, conducted by the firm Breakthrough Campaigns, shows Kim at 45 percent to Murphy’s 22 percent.

Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), who in September was indicted on federal corruption charges and weeks later charged with acting as an unregistered foreign agent for the Egyptian government, is at 6 percent while left-wing activist Lawrence Hamm comes in at 4 percent. Menendez hasn’t said whether he plans to seek reelection next year.

Kim, a three-term member of Congress from the 3rd District in South Jersey, announced his campaign for Senate within hours of Menendez’s indictment, while Murphy built up support behind the scenes ahead of her announcement on Nov. 15. While Kim’s campaign was greeted with enthusiasm from the party’s progressive base, Murphy has been endorsed by most powerful Democratic chairs, making her the favorite to win favorable ballot placement in most counties through New Jersey’s peculiar “county line” ballot design.

There have been other indications of progressive and rank-and-file support for Kim. In October, End Citizens United, which endorsed Kim, released a poll showing him with a big lead over Murphy, who had not yet declared her candidacy. And a straw poll of Democratic Party officials in Monmouth County — where Murphy lives and part of which Kim represents — found Kim leading Murphy 29-13, with another 13 undecided. The straw poll was first reported by New Jersey Globe.

Kim is viewed more favorably by the primary electorate than Murphy, according to the survey. Forty-two percent have a favorable view of Kim, while 7 percent have an unfavorable one; 51 percent didn't have an opinion. Murphy is seen favorably by 35 percent and unfavorable by 18 percent, while 47 percent offered no opinion.

Kim’s lead grew after respondents were read some positive biographical details of him and Murphy, with the Murphy statements drawn from her campaign website and communications. The statements about Kim included saying he was a “national security official under President Obama with deep experience including working in war zones” and that he “sponsored the strongest anti-corruption bill in a generation, and wrote new laws to stop insider trading and prevent politicians from getting rich because of their position.”

The statements about Murphy included the lines that she’s “a mother of four, and a leader in tackling New Jersey’s maternal and infant mortality crisis and addressing climate change. As First Lady, Tammy worked tirelessly to make New Jersey a better place to work and raise a family.”

After being read the details, Kim’s lead over Murphy grew to 58 percent to 24 percent.

The poll was conducted from Dec. 7 to Dec. 14 through live call interviews and text-to-web surveys. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.