Why Trump’s team thinks he can survive any verdict

Donald Trump’s pollsters have been tracking the impact of his indictments throughout his first trial and, moving to get ahead of events, are arguing that regardless of the verdict in the New York hush-money case, they can spin it in his favor.

In the campaign’s internal polling, two-thirds of respondents say politics played a role in his criminal indictments.

That is at odds with public polling, which has found that somewhere between a plurality and a majority of Americans believe the case has been handled fairly, with a sharp partisan split. Some 60 percent of voters have said they think the charges are very or somewhat serious. Even 6 percent of Trump voters say they would be less likely to back him if convicted.

But the Trump campaign’s interpretation of its own polling suggests what its strategy might be for dealing with a guilty verdict. Trump’s advisers and allies say the public, which has largely tuned out the trial, may have already factored the possibility of a conviction into how it sees Trump. And as Trump has before, he’ll use the case to bolster the grievance narrative he’s been cultivating for years.

“We’ve got 66 percent telling us that politics have played a role in it. Only 28 say ‘no role,’” said Jim McLaughlin, a Trump pollster whose firm conducted the survey. “The interesting part about that is, even 27 percent of Democrats are saying ‘politics played a role in the indictments.’”

No politician wants to be convicted of a crime, and if he is convicted, it is not out of the question that Trump could face prison time. But if the jury cannot reach a verdict or finds Trump not guilty?

“The media loves asking the question, ‘OK, what happens if Donald Trump is found guilty of a felony?’” McLaughlin said. “They don’t ask the question, ‘What happens if he’s found not guilty?’ If he’s found not guilty, I think he gets a bump out of it.”

The Trump campaign’s management of the verdict, which could come any day, after the case was sent to the jury on Wednesday, will help to define a frenetic phase of the campaign, with a presidential debate, Trump’s selection of a running mate and the Republican National Convention all looming in the next six weeks. President Joe Biden is preparing to break his vow of silence and address the trials when a verdict is reached, either capitalizing on a conviction or bracing for Republican attacks if Trump is acquitted.

Trump’s allies believe the former president is on track to defy both political and legal gravity again, after weathering the bankruptcy of three casinos, surviving the “Access Hollywood” imbroglio in 2016 and rocketing back to political relevance after his party considered the twice-impeached former president all but damaged goods following a 2020 election loss and then a bruising 2022 midterms.

“I think most people think this jury will indict Trump or convict Trump, and they’ll end up going to the appellate courts to resolve this. But I think it’s made the president stronger,” said Dave Carney, the veteran GOP strategist. “Since ’15, he’s been a victim, played the victim card — Russia, Russia, Russia, all this stuff. And now in full high-D, 5G TV, he confirmed that.”

What’s more, after the verdict is known — and if Trump does not go to prison — he will likely largely be free to resume a campaign that was expected to be litigated more in a courtroom — a scenario largely behind him after cases in Georgia and Florida have been delayed.

“The grand plans to use all these court cases to throw sand in the gears of Trump failed,” Carney said. “The trial itself? The only thing that could have been better was if it was actually on TV and people got to see firsthand.”

Is Teflon Don back?

“It’s not Teflon Don, because they were able to bring these charges. I think it just shows the American people. It’s further proof, I would say, of the lunacy of these efforts,” said David Urban, a Trump campaign adviser in 2016 and 2020. He added: “Nobody wants to be convicted. If you’re convicted, Democrats will use that as a cudgel no matter what. But I think the president’s legal team has done a masterful job at exposing the lawfare for what it is.”

Even Democrats are leery that a Trump conviction will have a significant effect.

“I don’t think any of them should count on these convictions or indictments somehow moving the needle against Donald Trump, it doesn’t seem so, so we’ve got to win on our own merits,” said a senior Biden reelection official, granted anonymity to discuss the case’s political impact frankly.

“The American people witnessed in real time the unprecedented and disgraceful weaponization of our justice system by Crooked Joe Biden’s Democrat Party,” Steven Cheung, a Trump spokesperson, told POLITICO. “The charges against President Trump should have never been filed and this show trial should have never occurred.”

But Trump is navigating entirely new terrain. A possible conviction still looms, and the gears of justice have finally ground down Trump to this moment. Never before has a major party nominee navigated a general election with a criminal conviction hanging over him.

“On the margins, and this is an election that is going to be decided on the margins, a conviction makes a difference,” said Sarah Longwell, publisher of the anti-Trump outlet The Bulwark and CEO of Longwell Partners.

But Trump has, after all, often had his back up against the wall. And voters are reflexively used to presenting him with the lowest bar to clear.

“He’s in so much trouble so often that voters are a bit numb to things that would otherwise be a major scandal for any other politician,” Longwell said.