Ways Donald Trump Could Secure a Victory
The likelihood is that the polls may not fully capture Trump's support in the three Blue Wall states.
TroibNews 
Donald Trump’s previously improbable electoral comeback is starting to seem quite logical.
Voter dissatisfaction with the current state of affairs under President Joe Biden is significant, and Vice President Kamala Harris has not distinguished herself enough from him. Dominant issues such as the economy, inflation, and immigration are at the forefront, with many voters believing Trump managed these issues more effectively during his presidency. Despite ending his term as one of the least-popular presidents of the past 50 years, following his defeat and the January 6 riot at the Capitol, approximately half of voters now retrospectively approve of his presidency.
While Trump hasn’t made significant gains among Latino or Black voters overall—being particularly far from the latter—he is making strides in reversing his 2020 losses in key Sun Belt battleground states like Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
Echoing previous elections in 2016 and 2020, current polls may be underestimating Trump in the critical Blue Wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Although polls show these races are tied, historical trends suggest that Trump may actually be in a stronger position than depicted.
Even in his 2020 loss, Trump energized a segment of the electorate that pollsters often overlooked, whether due to their non-participation in polls or their exclusion from models based on political engagement. These low-propensity voters may turn out once more, and Trump’s campaign is particularly focusing on a specific demographic: young men, who could create a gender gap skewing in his favor.
Here’s how Trump may achieve this:
**The Issues**
Throughout the campaign, the economy has emerged as voters’ primary concern. Although Harris has narrowed the gap regarding economic issues in the campaign’s final stretch, Trump continues to be perceived as the more trustworthy candidate, leading by 6 points in the last New York Times/Siena College poll.
Immigration and abortion follow as key issues for voters, with immigration being Trump’s strongest suit. Harris attempted to navigate toward the center and labeled Trump as unserious, citing his dismantling of the Senate’s bipartisan immigration bill earlier in the year, but voters remain unconvinced.
As for abortion, while Trump’s position of "it’s up to the states" has not changed the political landscape, he hopes it will soften the opposition enough to allow for ticket-splitting. Analyzing abortion-rights referendums across various states alongside Trump’s polling reveals that many Trump supporters in states like Arizona back abortion rights. The New York Times/Siena College poll noted that Trump had a slight 4-point advantage, even with a 16-point lead for the "yes" vote on the state’s abortion constitutional amendment.
The most telling aspect of current polling may be voters’ retrospective views on Trump’s presidency. Although he left office amid scandal on January 6 and with an approval rating close to 40 percent, polls asking voters to evaluate his presidency retrospectively show growing approval: an NBC News poll released Sunday indicated 48 percent approval.
Historically, it’s common for Americans to reassess former presidents—regardless of their unpopularity—favorably after they exit office. However, Trump is the first ex-president in over a century to seek the presidency again, maintaining his presence in the political landscape, which complicates the notion that absence fosters affection.
**The Coalitions**
Despite his polarizing rhetoric, Trump has constructed the most racially diverse coalition among Republican presidential candidates in the last two decades.
His appeal to Latinos has seen the most significant shifts from 2016 and 2020. While Biden secured Latinos by 28 points in 2020, in areas like Florida and South Texas, Trump has found a genuine connection with certain Hispanic demographics. Polls indicating Harris’ lead has tightened to around 10 points—such as the New York Times/Siena poll—suggest this trend could extend into battleground states like Arizona and Nevada.
Moreover, Trump is making inroads with Black voters, particularly among younger Black men, capturing roughly 15 percent of the African American vote and keeping Harris under 85 percent, despite not likely reaching the 20 percent indicated by some polls. Ongoing concerns about reduced Black turnout are troubling for Democrats, as this crucial segment of their base may not participate.
Additionally, white, rural, and working-class voters continue to be a cornerstone of Trump's electoral support. In 2020, he won white voters without college degrees by around 25 points, suggesting further potential for growth within this group, especially among men.
**The Map**
Trump’s strengthened position with Black and Latino voters could lead to victories in the Sun Belt, particularly in Arizona and Georgia, while also helping him secure North Carolina, hindering Harris’ path to victory.
Thus, it becomes a Rust Belt or bust scenario for Harris, and all Trump needs is to win one of the following states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. Each could be positioned as his best opportunity.
Wisconsin is the most favorable for Republicans in terms of partisanship; Biden won it by less than a percentage point in 2020, while he won both Pennsylvania and Michigan by larger margins. Wisconsin also has the highest percentage of white voters, with 58 percent fitting into that crucial white non-college graduate demographic.
Pennsylvania closely follows Wisconsin in partisanship and has been a focal point for both candidates.
Although Michigan is the most Democratic-leaning of the trio—Biden won it by nearly 3 points in 2020—the state’s substantial Arab American population poses a unique challenge for Harris, particularly given her lack of a break with the president on Middle East issues.
Moreover, the three states typically align in their voting patterns, as seen in 2016 with Trump and 2020 with Biden. The last deviation from this trend occurred in 1988 when Wisconsin was among just 10 states that voted for Michael Dukakis.
Lucas Dupont contributed to this report for TROIB News
Voter dissatisfaction with the current state of affairs under President Joe Biden is significant, and Vice President Kamala Harris has not distinguished herself enough from him. Dominant issues such as the economy, inflation, and immigration are at the forefront, with many voters believing Trump managed these issues more effectively during his presidency. Despite ending his term as one of the least-popular presidents of the past 50 years, following his defeat and the January 6 riot at the Capitol, approximately half of voters now retrospectively approve of his presidency.
While Trump hasn’t made significant gains among Latino or Black voters overall—being particularly far from the latter—he is making strides in reversing his 2020 losses in key Sun Belt battleground states like Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
Echoing previous elections in 2016 and 2020, current polls may be underestimating Trump in the critical Blue Wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Although polls show these races are tied, historical trends suggest that Trump may actually be in a stronger position than depicted.
Even in his 2020 loss, Trump energized a segment of the electorate that pollsters often overlooked, whether due to their non-participation in polls or their exclusion from models based on political engagement. These low-propensity voters may turn out once more, and Trump’s campaign is particularly focusing on a specific demographic: young men, who could create a gender gap skewing in his favor.
Here’s how Trump may achieve this:
**The Issues**
Throughout the campaign, the economy has emerged as voters’ primary concern. Although Harris has narrowed the gap regarding economic issues in the campaign’s final stretch, Trump continues to be perceived as the more trustworthy candidate, leading by 6 points in the last New York Times/Siena College poll.
Immigration and abortion follow as key issues for voters, with immigration being Trump’s strongest suit. Harris attempted to navigate toward the center and labeled Trump as unserious, citing his dismantling of the Senate’s bipartisan immigration bill earlier in the year, but voters remain unconvinced.
As for abortion, while Trump’s position of "it’s up to the states" has not changed the political landscape, he hopes it will soften the opposition enough to allow for ticket-splitting. Analyzing abortion-rights referendums across various states alongside Trump’s polling reveals that many Trump supporters in states like Arizona back abortion rights. The New York Times/Siena College poll noted that Trump had a slight 4-point advantage, even with a 16-point lead for the "yes" vote on the state’s abortion constitutional amendment.
The most telling aspect of current polling may be voters’ retrospective views on Trump’s presidency. Although he left office amid scandal on January 6 and with an approval rating close to 40 percent, polls asking voters to evaluate his presidency retrospectively show growing approval: an NBC News poll released Sunday indicated 48 percent approval.
Historically, it’s common for Americans to reassess former presidents—regardless of their unpopularity—favorably after they exit office. However, Trump is the first ex-president in over a century to seek the presidency again, maintaining his presence in the political landscape, which complicates the notion that absence fosters affection.
**The Coalitions**
Despite his polarizing rhetoric, Trump has constructed the most racially diverse coalition among Republican presidential candidates in the last two decades.
His appeal to Latinos has seen the most significant shifts from 2016 and 2020. While Biden secured Latinos by 28 points in 2020, in areas like Florida and South Texas, Trump has found a genuine connection with certain Hispanic demographics. Polls indicating Harris’ lead has tightened to around 10 points—such as the New York Times/Siena poll—suggest this trend could extend into battleground states like Arizona and Nevada.
Moreover, Trump is making inroads with Black voters, particularly among younger Black men, capturing roughly 15 percent of the African American vote and keeping Harris under 85 percent, despite not likely reaching the 20 percent indicated by some polls. Ongoing concerns about reduced Black turnout are troubling for Democrats, as this crucial segment of their base may not participate.
Additionally, white, rural, and working-class voters continue to be a cornerstone of Trump's electoral support. In 2020, he won white voters without college degrees by around 25 points, suggesting further potential for growth within this group, especially among men.
**The Map**
Trump’s strengthened position with Black and Latino voters could lead to victories in the Sun Belt, particularly in Arizona and Georgia, while also helping him secure North Carolina, hindering Harris’ path to victory.
Thus, it becomes a Rust Belt or bust scenario for Harris, and all Trump needs is to win one of the following states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. Each could be positioned as his best opportunity.
Wisconsin is the most favorable for Republicans in terms of partisanship; Biden won it by less than a percentage point in 2020, while he won both Pennsylvania and Michigan by larger margins. Wisconsin also has the highest percentage of white voters, with 58 percent fitting into that crucial white non-college graduate demographic.
Pennsylvania closely follows Wisconsin in partisanship and has been a focal point for both candidates.
Although Michigan is the most Democratic-leaning of the trio—Biden won it by nearly 3 points in 2020—the state’s substantial Arab American population poses a unique challenge for Harris, particularly given her lack of a break with the president on Middle East issues.
Moreover, the three states typically align in their voting patterns, as seen in 2016 with Trump and 2020 with Biden. The last deviation from this trend occurred in 1988 when Wisconsin was among just 10 states that voted for Michael Dukakis.
Lucas Dupont contributed to this report for TROIB News
